2020 Super Tuesday Primary Election Roundup


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Your Super Tuesday Election Roundup! (This post is not sponsored by or affiliated with Monsanto’s “Roundup” — AT ALL!)


Here are your results, more or less in the order that they fly over our transom:

  1. BLOOMBERG WINS AMERICAN SAMOA!  HE’S ON THE BOARD!  HE HAS FIVE DELEGATES!
  2. Tulsi Gabbard has one delegate from American Samoa!  GABBAMENTUM!
  3. Biden is, as of 5:55 PT, projected to be the leader in both delegates and popular votes, which may last several hours.
  4. Biden has still won South Carolina.
  5. Sanders is projected to win Vermont (16 Delegates).  Nice, but no Samoa!
  6. Biden projected to win Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia.  If only there was a way to make sense of this trend!
  7. Biden favored in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.
  8. California’s 415 delegates may have been arranged by the makers of San Francisco’s area code.
  9. CA’s total of 415 exceeds the combined total of Alabama (52), Arkansas (31), North Carolina (110), South Carolina (honorary inclusion) (53), Tennessee (64) and Virginia (99), which equals 409.  SO GLAD that we moved the primary date!
  10. Tonight’s other contests include: two in the Southwest, Oklahoma (27) and Texas (228); two in the Mountain region, Colorado (67) and Utah (29); Maine (24) and Massachusetts (91) joining Vermont in New England; and Minnesota, alone in its region with (75), so we’ll stick them with the 13 delegates coming from Democrats Abroad, from whom we won’t hear for about a week.
  11. Admittedly, the last two entries are not breaking news.
  12. The Times reports that Biden has won Alabama and Tennessee.
  13. The only southern states with primaries after tonight are Missouri (68, sort of southern), Mississippi (36), Florida (219), Georgia (105), Louisiana (54), Delaware (21) we might as well call it one), West Virginia (28, we might as well call it one too), and Kentucky (54). Not including Texas and Oklahoma, that means that the 409 up today is compared to adds up to 675 in the future.  If we include TX and OK’s 255, that means that the greater South — including DE and WV will have had 664 votes cast today versus 675 in the future, meaning that Biden has used up half of his best region.
  14. Sanders wins Colorado.  He also picked up about a quarter of the delegates so far in North Carolina and almost a third in Virginia.
  15. In the South, Bloomberg has won fewer delegates so far than Warren, who has won one in Virginia.
  16. Continuing on the Bloomberg Beat at 8:00:
    In states where Biden is winning: MN, 8.2%, OK 14.3%, AR 18.0%, TN, 16.0%, AL 11.4%, VA 9.7%, NC 14,2%, ME: 11.3%, MA 11.9%
    In states where Sanders is winning: VT 9,4%, UT 19.1% (2nd place), CO 22.3% (2nd place), TX 18.4%
  17. Yes, Biden is winning Massachusetts, Maine, and Minnesota, with Bernie and Liz splitting about 50% of the vote in each.  They are the first victims of Bloomberg’s collapse.
  18. Text from Bernie at 8:15: “If you’re in line, stay in line — we need every vote!  If you’re in line, you can vote!”
  19. Massachusetts stunner: with 66% counted, Biden has a third of the vote, Sanders 26.7%, Warren 12.5%.  Warren has hurt her prestige in Massachusetts badly by staying in the race.  She need to get out now.
  20. In Minnesota, Biden 38.2, Sanders 30.3, Warren 15.9.  With call of that “pileup in the center lane,” pundits missed the pile-up in the left lane.  Warren will face pressure to stay in as the Stop Bernie candidate.  We’re going to learn what she is made of.
  21. OK, I had to take some time away concentrating on the post (probably more than one post) where I’ll be tracking the OC ROV’s releases of the data — because that’s going to be what we’ll be looking at for a long time after the primary election is over.  Things are moving more smoothly now, so you’ll see updates.
  22. First, the California Presidential primary results look like this:

WITH CA RESULTS (MOSTLY) IN

President: a very good day for Bernie Sanders, but not a great one, as it looks like both Bloomberg and Biden will end up over 15% and thus take a share of the statewide delegates.  At midnight, it looked like Bernie had 31.1% of the statewide vote (a proportion that is likely to grow), while Biden had 21.5% and Bloomberg 16.4%, meaning that Bernie would get 311/690 (about 45%) of the statewide delegates, with Biden getting a bit over 31% and Bloomberg a bit under 24%.  This analysis by the Green Papers (which will no doubt change) has Sanders earning 40% percent of most Orange County districts’ delegates, but 50% in CA-46, which has 4 rather than 5 delegates. Sanders came away with 14 of the delegates from districts at least partly in OC, Biden with 13, and Bloomberg with 7. (In a two person race with Biden, Sanders would have won far more, but that’s the breaks of delegate math.)

Statewide, as things stand, it looks like Sanders will get 182 of the state’s 415 delegates, Biden 132, Bloomberg 95, and Warren 6.

 

 

 


OC Races!

It’s showtime at the ROV!  Or almost so.  (I’m not going to make fun of them over a small delay.  We’re the size of Iowa, after all.)

Okay, as of 8:28 their 8:05 first report has become 9:05; they eventually got it out by 8:48.  Then came 9:00, 9:30, and I’m about to get posting #4 — and they’re all here.  Later files may be in one or more separate posts, because these things are huge and take up a whole lot of memory.

Commentary on OC races will be below, when I can get to it.  One thing to keep in mind is that the results almost always start of conservatively tilted — because conservatives are more likely to mail in their ballots early (especially in the absence of a dynamic Presidential contest, which California has rarely seen before) — while liberals tend to take their time, being more likely to send in ballots later and to vote in person.  So expect these results to turn more blue, but more towards reformers and less Democratic Establishment, over time.

SUPERVISOR #1

Andrew Do got the most votes, but not the over 50% he needed to avoid a runoff.  Right now Sergio Contreras is barely leading Miguel Pulido — by 0.68%, or 404 votes — for the second spot in the runoff.  Contreras and Nguyen’s numbers combined fall over 5,000 short of Do’s, so it looks like a question of what Pulido’s voters will do — go for the Latino, or follow Pulido if he brokers some sort of deal with Do.

SUPERVISOR #3

Wagner is running about 11% and 9,500 votes ahead of Aitken.  While late ballots could change things, at this point snother frustrating loss for Aitken looks likely.  But we’ll see.

OCBOE

In District 1, Beckie Gomez will keep her seat.

In District 3, Ken Williams has a 14.5% and 20,000 vote lead over Andy Thorburn.  Could change, but seems unlikely.

In District 4, Tim Shaw is winning with around 33% of the vote, and a plurality will suffice.  Both Vicky Calhoun, with over 26%, and Paulette Chaffee, with almost 23%, were within fighting distance — but as predicted Jordan Brandman’s 17.3% of the vote made that unlikely.  He should be recalled too, but I’m told that UNITE-HERE has other priorities.  Anyway, the Charters pick up another seat thanks to Jordan.

LEGISLATIVE PRIMARIES

CONGRESS

CA-38: Linda Sanchez is winning even in La Palma, and is probably doing better even in LA — but this is a two-person race so we’ll wait for the rematch.

CA-39: We can’t see the LA County or Chino Hills vote yet, so Gil Cisneros trailing Young Kim by 14.5% doesn’t really tell one much.

CA-45: This is entirely within the district, so we can say that as things stand Katie Porter, with 46.6% of the vote, will face Greg Raths, who is leading Don Sedgwick by 5% and 6,400 votes.  He’s their best candidate, but Katie should win.

CA-46:  With almost 58%, Lou Correa will face James Watters, who had a little over 30%, unless something truly remarkable happens.  (Pablo finished third of five!)

CA-47: Again, we have only part of the District, but Al Lowenthal is clearly in and John Briscoe is edging Amy Phan West here by less than 2 points.  No telling what LA County is up to!

CA-48: It’s the long-awaited Harley Rouda vs. Michelle Steele face-off!  Rouda’s lead in the primary is about 7% and will probably grow before the primary is done.  It’s over 46.5%, but that’s not too bad for a primary here.

CA-49: Mike Levin is losing in the OC part of the district — but that always happens.  Wait for the San Diego results.

STATE SENATE:

SD-29:  Ling-Ling Chang got over 50% in Josh Newman’s county.  In November he’ll return the favor in hers — presuming that he makes the runoff,  He has almost a 15,000 vote lead over Cho, doubling Cho’s percentage, but we need to see what’s going on in the other two counties.

SD-37: Holy yikes!  Moorlach is easily in the runoff, with just over 51% of the vote, but Democrats Dave Min and Katrina Foley are only 502 votes apart, as it stands, a lead for Min of about a third of 1%. We are nowhere near being able to call this one; my guess is that the late trend would favor Foley.

STATE ASSEMBLY:

AD-55: Phillip Chen is smearing Andrew Rodriguez by 29% in OC, but we’ll need to see how Rodriguez is doing in LA.

AD-65: Sharon trails in the primary and wins in November.  But this time she has over 54%, so that portends well.

AD-68: Republicans got 56% of the vote in this primary, incumbent Steven Choi getting 46% to make the runoff. Melissa Fox beat Eugene Fields by 9.5 points to face him.  This is why I didn’t endorse her for DPOC: she’ll get a seat anyway.

AD-69: Tom Daly won 70% of the meaningless primary vote.

AD-72: Janet Nguyen is in, but incumbent Tyler Diep leads Diedre Nguyen by less than 3% — which she could conceivably make up as the count continues.  (Tyler-hating Janet should pay for Diedre’s bill if there’s a recount!)

AD-73: Surprises!  Bill Brough is through, finishing 4th.  Republican Laurie Davies leads with 28%; Scott Rhinehart leads Chris Duncan by over 3% and 3,000 votes for the other spot.

AD-74: Incumbent Cottie Petrie-Norris got about 47.5%, while Diane Dixon leads her fellow Republican Kelly Ernby by a mere 3% and fewer than 2,500 votes.

Oh, and Tony Ferrentino won his judicial seat, but lost to “No on 13” for “highest vote total in the election.”

BALLOT MEASURES

County Measure A — which, let me Moorlach at you, will someday lead the county back into bankruptcy — is passing with about 80% of the vote.

AUHSD’s Measure B has over 50% but so far not the 55% required to win.

Brea’s Measure G is losing with 44%.

Capistrano’s Measure H is losing with 42%.  Its Measure I is losing with 45%.

Fullerton’s Measure J and Measure K are both losing, each with 46%.

Rancho Santiago’s Measure L is losing with almost 48%.

Saddleback Valley’s Measure M is losing with 37%.

Tustin Unified’s Measure N has 52.3%, but not yet the magic 55%.

Lowell’s Measure O has over 82% in OC; we’ll see in time how it’s doing in LA County.

OC rejects Prop 13 by 62% — but we’re not the only ones who have a say in that.

COUNTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE SEATS

These seems too unsettled to call until the late absentees come in.  Some real shocks as the results stand — if they stand.  And yes, the cheaters did prosper.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose attorney, semi-retired due to disability, residing in northwest Brea. Occasionally runs for office against bad people who would otherwise go unopposed. Got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012; Josh Newman then won the seat in 2016. In 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002; Todd Spitzer then won that seat in 2018. Every time he's run against some rotten incumbent, the *next* person to challenge them wins! He's OK with that. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 (in violation of Roberts Rules) when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Expelled from DPOC in October 2018 (in violation of Roberts Rules) for having endorsed Spitzer over Rackauckas -- which needed to be done. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. One of his daughters co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)