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For this Thanksgiving, OJB wishes for you some turkey WITHOUT ballot stuffing!
Notable results and non-results:
- Ashleigh Aitken today cut her deficit against Harry Sidhu from 890 to 748, with 5,935 more ballots counted. On its face, that too-small from that many ballots not a good sign — but what matters is the ballots left uncounted … likely challenged provisionals waiting (over Thanksgiving?) for their owners to claim them.
- Ousted incumbents include Tim Surridge from Orange Unified School Board, Dennis P. Walsh from Saddleback Valley, Rob Zur Schmiede in Laguna Beach Council, Frank Cobo in the Midway City Sanitary District — and Billy O’Connell in Huntington Beach is looking a little Edison High School green around the gills.
Here are the downballot races that are still close. I have generally included the static numbers from Tuesday’s OC ROV report and the Secretary of State’s office (for multi-county races) and the trend from the previous reports on Saturday. In each race, the name in orange is currently barely in and the one in magenta is currently barely out. (I’m somewhat arbitrarily and selectively drawing the line right around “under 3%,” down 1% from yesterday’s criterion.)
If you know anything interesting about these races and why we should care about them, please speak up!
Following the race updates will be the update of the “What’s Left to Count” report from the OCROV and a list of useful links.
LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* CAROL NORMANDIN |
5,526 |
21.9% |
* DEE NAMBA PERRY |
5,372 |
21.3% |
JAMES J. KELLY |
5,197 |
20.6% |
CHRISTINE DE BRETTEVILLE |
5,128 |
20.3% |
MARK NELSON |
3,266 |
13.0% |
HOWARD HILLS (W) |
718 |
2.8% |
|
Commentary to come.
LOS ALAMITOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
Number To Vote For: 2 |
Completed Precincts: 35 of 35 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
MARLYS DAVIDSON |
10,192 |
26.4% |
* DIANA D. HILL |
9,442 |
24.5% |
* JEFFREY I. BARKE |
9,419 |
24.4% |
OLAINA ANDERSON |
6,728 |
17.5% |
CONNOR SWAN SMITH |
2,764 |
7.2% |
|
Commentary to come.
SADDLEBACK VALLEY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
Number To Vote For: 2 |
Completed Precincts: 128 of 128 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
BARBARA SCHULMAN |
37,601 |
32.5% |
GREG KUNATH |
27,263 |
23.5% |
DAN WALSH |
26,075 |
22.5% |
* DENNIS P WALSH |
24,906 |
21.5% |
|
Commentary to come.
FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1 |
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
REGINA CUADRA |
4,200 |
50.7% |
CHESTER JENG |
4,092 |
49.3% |
|
But Jeng apparently ahead when LA vote is included. We;ll check.
ANAHEIM ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 2 |
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
JUAN GABRIEL ALVAREZ |
3,388 |
51.8% |
* JEFF COLE |
3,156 |
48.2% |
|
Looks over.
HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 37 of 37 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* PAUL R. MORROW |
16,829 |
25.7% |
DIANA MARKS |
13,810 |
21.1% |
* SHARI KOWALKE |
13,020 |
19.9% |
JENNIFER HAYDEN |
12,717 |
19.4% |
KARRIE BURROUGHS |
9,133 |
13.9% |
|
Obvious lead is obvious, but still too close to call.
OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* PATRICIA SINGER |
17,688 |
24.6% |
* JOHN BRISCOE |
15,493 |
21.6% |
* JACK C. SOUDERS |
15,196 |
21.1% |
GRACEY VAN DER MARK |
12,556 |
17.5% |
KATE HOLMES |
10,949 |
15.2% |
|
Yeah, this looks over. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
County Supervisor, 4th District |
Completed Precincts: 276 of 276 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
DOUG CHAFFEE |
74,972 |
50.4% |
TIM SHAW |
73,842 |
49.6% |
|
Chaffee trend still increasing, from 960 to 1,130. Looks bad for Shaw.
CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor |
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
HARRY SIDHU |
25,992 |
32.8% |
ASHLEIGH AITKEN |
25,244 |
31.8% |
LORRI GALLOWAY |
11,966 |
15.1% |
CYNTHIA WARD |
6,978 |
8.8% |
H. FUJI SHIOURA |
2,887 |
3.6% |
ROBERT WILLIAMS |
2,707 |
3.4% |
RUDY GAONA |
2,388 |
3.0% |
TONY D. MARTIN |
1,140 |
1.4% |
|
Aitken trend not strong enough yet — although finally a sizeable amount of votes got counted in this race — but challenged provisionals of her voters are the ones most likely to be out there.
Repeating yet again:
HOWEVER, there is good reason to suspect that a sizable number of provisional ballots are being challenged in Anaheim, whose percentage of the overall vote has been shrinking each day over the last week just when one would think it would be growing as the ROV moves to counting provisional votes, and therefore are not reflected in these figures. [NOTE: THIS CHANGED TODAY.] (This will be the topic of a longer separate story, as soon as I can get to it. Let’s just say for now that if it turns out that Disney lawyers are trying to obstruct or even just delay counting of the Latino vote in their flagship city, every network except maybe Disney’s own ABC and Fox will be interested in it.)
What this suggests is that the theory was correct — and that many of the provisionals may have had their voters located and gotten approved for inclusion. I AM GOING TO TRY TO FIND THOSE BALLOTS IF I CAN AND SEE WHOSE NAMES WERE BEING EXCLUDED. IF IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET COPIES OF THE ENVELOPE SIGNATURES THEMSELVES TO BE EXAMINED PRIVATELY BY A COURT’S SPECIAL MASTER, I WILL DO THAT AS WELL. IF PEOPLE (who I’m merely guessing might be affiliated with Disney) HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PREVENT THE EXPEDITED COUNTING OF LATINO BALLOTS ON FLIMSY BASES IN VIOLATION OF THE LAW, I’M GOING TO FIND LAWYERS MUCH BETTER THAN I AM AND MAKE THE SCOFFLAWS VERY SORRY.
CITY OF BREA Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* CECILIA HUPP |
9,611 |
24.0% |
* STEVEN VARGAS |
7,641 |
19.0% |
* GLENN G. PARKER |
6,869 |
17.1% |
STEVE SHATYNSKI |
5,731 |
14.3% |
BILL R. HALL |
5,094 |
12.7% |
BLAKE PEREZ |
2,968 |
7.4% |
SEAN THOMAS |
2,208 |
5.5% |
|
Yeah, pretty much over.
CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 1 |
Completed Precincts: 8 of 8 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
SUNNY YOUNGSUN PARK |
1,526 |
34.8% |
* VIRGINIA VAUGHN |
1,516 |
34.6% |
W. “VAL” SADOWINSKI |
1,343 |
30.6% |
|
These are from provisional ballots, which by definition are cast on election day. The margin dropped from 14 to 10; Park gained 7, Vaughn 11, and Val 6. If many provisionals remain, Park is in trouble. If not … well, it will be close either way.
CITY OF CYPRESS Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 21 of 21 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* JON PEAT |
8,239 |
22.1% |
* STACY BERRY |
7,700 |
20.7% |
* PAULO MORALES |
6,875 |
18.4% |
FRANCES MARQUEZ |
5,623 |
15.1% |
STEVEN D. BRADLEY |
4,963 |
13.3% |
NETTIE BRYAN |
3,870 |
10.4% |
|
It’s over.
CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* MICHAEL VO |
8,718 |
16.5% |
PATRICK HARPER |
8,250 |
15.6% |
KIM CONSTANTINE |
7,914 |
15.0% |
GLENN GRANDIS |
6,739 |
12.7% |
TOM NGUYEN |
6,148 |
11.6% |
DAVE OSBORN |
5,602 |
10.6% |
PATRICK TUCKER |
5,584 |
10.6% |
TAM (NICK) LECONG |
3,966 |
7.5% |
|
Looks done.
CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Member, City Council, District 4 |
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* PHAT BUI |
2,594 |
40.0% |
MARK ANTHONY PAREDES |
2,232 |
34.4% |
JOE DOVINH |
1,662 |
25.6% |
|
Looks over. Sorry, Mark.
CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 2 |
Completed Precincts: 91 of 91 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
FARRAH N. KHAN |
21,674 |
15.4% |
ANTHONY KUO |
20,158 |
14.4% |
CARRIE O’MALLEY |
18,473 |
13.2% |
LAUREN JOHNSON-NORRIS |
16,272 |
11.6% |
KEV ABAZAJIAN |
15,804 |
11.3% |
FRANK MCGILL |
11,807 |
8.4% |
JACI WOODS |
9,596 |
6.8% |
MARK NEWGENT |
7,513 |
5.3% |
JOHN PARK |
6,340 |
4.5% |
GANG CHEN |
5,392 |
3.8% |
LIQING LEE SUN |
5,062 |
3.6% |
DAVID CHEY |
2,341 |
1.7% |
|
We’re not calling this yet because … because … well, no. It’s over.
CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 16 of 16 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* TONI ISEMAN |
4,514 |
14.7% |
PETER BLAKE |
4,482 |
14.6% |
SUE KEMPF |
4,195 |
13.6% |
ANN CHRISTOPH |
3,975 |
12.9% |
CHERYL KINSMAN |
3,798 |
12.4% |
JUDIE MANCUSO |
2,627 |
8.5% |
* ROBERT “ROB” ZUR SCHMIEDE |
2,076 |
6.8% |
PAUL MERRITT |
1,919 |
6.2% |
LORENE LAGUNA |
1,306 |
4.2% |
SUE MARIE CONNOLLY |
631 |
2.1% |
ALLISON T. MATHEWS |
496 |
1.6% |
ELIZABETH “LIZ” BATES |
492 |
1.6% |
JORG DUBIN (W) |
238 |
0.8% |
|
Christoph narrows the lead by about 20.
CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 2 |
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* CAROL MOORE |
5,333 |
35.2% |
* JOE RAINEY |
4,945 |
32.7% |
JUDITH P. TROUTMAN |
4,861 |
32.1% |
|
Lead for second seat expands from 76 to 84.
CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 3 |
Completed Precincts: 76 of 76 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
TIM STOAKS |
17,276 |
50.4% |
* MARSHALL “DUFFY” DUFFIELD |
17,018 |
49.6% |
|
Prior lead was 311. Significant late move by Duffy to cut it to 258.
CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 28 of 28 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
DAN BANE |
11,387 |
16.4% |
LAURA FERGUSON |
8,220 |
11.9% |
* KATHY WARD |
7,566 |
10.9% |
GENE W. JAMES |
7,014 |
10.1% |
WAYNE EGGLESTON |
5,610 |
8.1% |
BERNIE WOHLFARTH |
5,525 |
8.0% |
JACKSON HINKLE |
5,418 |
7.8% |
JAKE RYBCZYK |
4,986 |
7.2% |
DON BROWN |
4,921 |
7.1% |
MIKII RATHMANN |
3,687 |
5.3% |
ED WARD |
3,034 |
4.4% |
TIFFANY JOY ROBSON LEET |
1,897 |
2.7% |
|
Very few new votes counted. James remains within striking distance of Ward — but that’s not the way to bet.
CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor |
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO |
27,400 |
50.7% |
SAL TINAJERO |
26,617 |
49.3% |
|
Two days ago, Pulido at 50.9%, 26,667 to 25,617. Yesterday, Pulido at 50.8%, 27,142 to 26,319. Today, Pulido at 50.7%, 27,400 to 26,617.
One of two things is happening. One is that the late trend is good for Tinajero but that he’s going to run out of remaining days. The other is that … repeating yet again:
This is another one where I strongly suspect, without having sought or received evidence to back up my opinion, that Pulido’s people have been challenging provisional ballots from areas (and possibly ethnicities) that they believe will be more likely to support Tinajero. If so, then the likelihood is good that Tinajero will eventually win — but his mayoral term will have a difficult birth. … Definitely not over until the last provisional is counted.
I don’t think that we’ll get much warning before the trickle of ballots — including all eligible provisionals — stops. Every day it goes on is probably going to be a good one for Tinajero.
CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 6 |
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS |
20,297 |
39.0% |
NELIDA MENDOZA |
17,710 |
34.0% |
MIRNA VELASQUEZ |
14,025 |
27.0% |
|
In this citywide vote (thanks for the reminder!), the numbers from yesterday closely follow the narrow split between Pulido and Tinajero. But Mendoza has far more ground to make up, so this one is over.
Why, Mirna Velasquez, why?
CITY OF VILLA PARK Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 6 of 6 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
CRYSTAL K. MILES |
2,123 |
29.5% |
CHAD ZIMMERMAN |
2,009 |
27.9% |
* ROBERT COLLACOTT |
1,639 |
22.8% |
* DIANA C. FASCENELLI |
1,421 |
19.8% |
|
This one is over.
CITY OF WESTMINSTER Member, City Council |
Number To Vote For: 2 |
Completed Precincts: 34 of 34 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
TAI DO |
7,690 |
17.0% |
CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN |
7,484 |
16.5% |
JAMISON POWER |
6,544 |
14.4% |
AMY WEST |
5,499 |
12.1% |
ANITA A. RICE |
5,453 |
12.0% |
FRANCES THE-THUY NGUYEN |
3,812 |
8.4% |
ANDY QUACH |
2,200 |
4.9% |
MARK LAWRENCE |
2,042 |
4.5% |
SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN |
2,021 |
4.5% |
KHAI DAO |
1,347 |
3.0% |
JASON GRAY |
576 |
1.3% |
RANDY YOUNG |
418 |
0.9% |
VISUAL WILLIAM |
230 |
0.5% |
|
Chi Charlie’s lead over Power drops by about 100. Only the possibility of spurious challenges to provisionals keeps hope for this one alive.
CAPISTRANO BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 1 of 1 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* MIKE HAACK |
47 |
25.8% |
ARDESHIR IRANI |
38 |
20.9% |
PATRICK MC NULTY |
28 |
15.4% |
CHARLOTTE M. BLOOM |
24 |
13.2% |
ROBERT H. BANCROFT |
23 |
12.6% |
* KURTIS BREEDING |
22 |
12.1% |
|
No change.
MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT Director |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
ANDREW NGUYEN |
13,461 |
23.4% |
SERGIO CONTRERAS |
13,149 |
22.9% |
* MARGIE L. RICE |
12,993 |
22.6% |
* FRANK COBO |
11,145 |
19.4% |
ANDY QUACH |
6,672 |
11.6% |
|
Rice continues pulling away from Cobo. I think we can call this one.
IRVINE RANCH WATER DISTRICT Director |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 246 of 246 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* DOUG REINHART |
62,511 |
26.0% |
* STEVE LAMAR |
60,831 |
25.3% |
* PEER A. SWAN |
51,632 |
21.5% |
ANDREW R. POLLARD |
49,406 |
20.6% |
RICHARD A. VANZINI |
|
Swan up 397; Pollard up around 495. Still in play.
EL TORO WATER DISTRICT Director |
Number To Vote For: 2 |
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
* KATHRYN FRESHLEY |
11,341 |
39.1% |
MIKE GASKINS |
9,133 |
31.5% |
* FREDERICK J. ADJARIAN |
8,539 |
29.4% |
|
Adjarian closes the margin by 4. This likely gets called tomorrow.
MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT Director |
Number To Vote For: 3 |
Completed Precincts: 86 of 86 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
KELLY JENNINGS |
29,823 |
24.0% |
* DONALD R. FROELICH |
28,161 |
22.7% |
WILLIAM “BILL” MOORHEAD |
23,642 |
19.1% |
KEN MADDOX |
22,203 |
17.9% |
JOEL BISHOP |
10,762 |
8.7% |
SHERRY WANNINGER |
9,428 |
7.6% |
|
Moorhead adds 250 while Maddox adds 253. On its way out.
L-City of Anaheim, Initiative Ordinance to Increase Minimum Wage |
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129 |
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
Yes |
43,784 |
53.9% |
No |
37,504 |
46.1% |
|
YES adds 1100 votes. NO adds 611 votes. Margin jumps from 5,791 to 6,204. I’m only leaving this up here because of the probable correlation to the Mayoral vote.
WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?
Total Ballots Left to Count
Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 479,011
Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 415,026
Total Estimated Left to Count: 63,985
Vote-by-Mail Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 123,800 (NOTE: INCREASE OF 3000, may have been misreporting rather than “ballot discovery” as by far most are listed as having been counted)
Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 123,472
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 328
Provisionals Left to Count
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130000
Total provisionals counted: 71,660
Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 58,340
Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 187,800
Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 187,526
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 274
Election Day Paper Left to Count
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 13200
Total election day paper ballots counted: 11,696
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 1,504
Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 20,947
Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,672
Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 275
Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 3,264
Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 0
Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 3,264
HOW MANY VOTES REMAIN IN THE ANAHEIM MAYOR’S RACE?
The Anaheim Mayor’s race has received votes on approximately 7.56 of the ballots in Orange County. If that percentage holds for all of the remaining 63,985 uncounted votes, we would expect 4,422 more votes in the race.
However, of those 63,985 uncounted votes, 58,340 are provisional ballots and 3,264 are from conditional voter registrations, which I expect will be even more Democratic than provisional ballots. That combined 61,604 votes constitutes 96.28% of the outstanding vote. The likelihood is high that Anaheim’s expected share of this vote would be substantially higher given the lower income and greater proportion of transient renters in the flatlands, so its percentage of the vote will probably be higher than 7.56% of the vote. If it is 10%, that would be 6,399 votes. If it is 15%, that would be 9,598 votes. And of course it could be higher, though it seems unlikely to be lower.
On the other hand, a substantial number of those votes may be challenged votes that may not count unless voters claim them. Anyone who voted provisional should watch their mail to see if they are notified of an asserted signature mismatch. Ideally, they will check with the Registrar of voters — I don’t know whether this information is available through their website — to see if their ballot has been accepted and processed.
It struck me while headed to Thanksgiving dinner that we might be able to use Ashleigh’s rate of gain from Wednesday’s results to assess how many outstanding ballots we’d expect her to need before she took the lead.
As noted, it took her 5935 ballots counted to pick up 142 votes. So, how many ballots from the same pool of provisionals would we estimate it would take for her to make up the rest of the existing 748 vote margin?
We start by asking: how many batches of 142 it would take to get to 148? It would take 5.2676 of them.
So she’d need a shade over 5-1/4 days like yesterday to pass Sidhu. Are there enough uncounted ballots left for that to happen? A little arithmetic tells us that 5935 times 5.2676 rounds off to 31,263 ballots. So, with 63,985 ballots left to count, even if half get disqualified it’s still reasonable to think that enough outstanding ballots might count for her to win. Happy Thanksgiving!
Now that’s some math to get me thru the weekend! When’s the next count? Never mind I’ll go look.
SATURDAY at 5, ugh…
NOW it’s bigger than just Anaheim – now it’s about laughing at Cunningham!
As if we couldn’t laugh at Cunningham before….
My guess is that Sidhu will probably narrowly prevail — with the margin perhaps being fewer than the number of ballots still in dispute that could not be resolved in time. If so, it’s virtually certain that Cunningham saying that this would vindicate him. That would probably because he’s a hack rather than an idiot, but he’d Be wrong either way. That’s the logic of someone who survives playing Russian Roulette and uses that result to “prove” that they were never in danger. That’s not how things work.
Now if he knows that these provisionals are or aren’t from Anaheim, then he certainly could undermine one of key assumptions. But if he can do that — unless some Anaheim precincts already have 100% turnout — I would want to know how.
Also, the title of this post is intended to be wry: we have no indicated that there has been or will be ballot stuffing in this election. The concern is whether there have been illegitimate challenges to some ballots, which might be described as “ballot unstuffing.”
*Can’t believe we wasted our vote for Tim Shaw! Heck that is very cute! Peer Swan? Good Grief, it is harder to get him out or there than a Louisiana Tick!
How in the hell did you vote for Tim Shaw from Corona Del Mar?
And what’s your problem with Peer Swan, one of the most honest people in OC’s water world?
Swan opposes Poseidon, which has Winship support. Plus, as I recall previous exchanges on the topic, he thinks he’s so smart.
As for wasting their vote on Shaw, I’m just going to presume that this was intended like “hope,” like wasting their prayers on him. The funny thing is: I actually believe that that is what was meant.