Close 2018 Races Report, 11/21: No Stuffing, Please!


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For this Thanksgiving, OJB wishes for you some turkey WITHOUT ballot stuffing!

Notable results and non-results:

  • Ashleigh Aitken today cut her deficit against Harry Sidhu from 890 to 748, with 5,935 more ballots counted.  On its face, that too-small from that many ballots not a good sign — but what matters is the ballots left uncounted … likely challenged provisionals waiting (over Thanksgiving?) for their owners to claim them.
  •  Ousted incumbents include Tim Surridge from Orange Unified School Board, Dennis P. Walsh from Saddleback Valley, Rob Zur Schmiede in Laguna Beach Council, Frank Cobo in the Midway City Sanitary District — and Billy O’Connell in Huntington Beach is looking a little Edison High School green around the gills.

Here are the downballot races that are still close.  I have generally included the static numbers from Tuesday’s OC ROV report and the Secretary of State’s office (for multi-county races) and the trend from the previous reports on Saturday.  In each race, the name in orange is currently barely in and the one in magenta is currently barely out.  (I’m somewhat arbitrarily and selectively drawing the line right around “under 3%,” down 1% from yesterday’s criterion.)

If you know anything interesting about these races and why we should care about them, please speak up!

Following the race updates will be the update of the “What’s Left to Count” report from the OCROV and a list of useful links.

LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL NORMANDIN 5,526 21.9%
* DEE NAMBA PERRY 5,372 21.3%
JAMES J. KELLY 5,197 20.6%
CHRISTINE DE BRETTEVILLE 5,128 20.3%
MARK NELSON 3,266 13.0%
HOWARD HILLS (W) 718 2.8%

Commentary to come.

LOS ALAMITOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 35 of 35
Vote Count Percentage
MARLYS DAVIDSON 10,192 26.4%
* DIANA D. HILL 9,442 24.5%
* JEFFREY I. BARKE 9,419 24.4%
OLAINA ANDERSON 6,728 17.5%
CONNOR SWAN SMITH 2,764 7.2%

 

Commentary to come.

SADDLEBACK VALLEY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 128 of 128
Vote Count Percentage
BARBARA SCHULMAN 37,601 32.5%
GREG KUNATH 27,263 23.5%
DAN WALSH 26,075 22.5%
* DENNIS P WALSH 24,906 21.5%

Commentary to come.

FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
REGINA CUADRA 4,200 50.7%
CHESTER JENG 4,092 49.3%

But Jeng apparently ahead when LA vote is included.  We;ll check.

ANAHEIM ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
JUAN GABRIEL ALVAREZ 3,388 51.8%
* JEFF COLE 3,156 48.2%

Looks over.

HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 37 of 37
Vote Count Percentage
* PAUL R. MORROW 16,829 25.7%
DIANA MARKS 13,810 21.1%
* SHARI KOWALKE 13,020 19.9%
JENNIFER HAYDEN 12,717 19.4%
KARRIE BURROUGHS 9,133 13.9%

Obvious lead is obvious, but still too close to call.

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
* PATRICIA SINGER 17,688 24.6%
* JOHN BRISCOE 15,493 21.6%
* JACK C. SOUDERS 15,196 21.1%
GRACEY VAN DER MARK 12,556 17.5%
KATE HOLMES 10,949 15.2%

Yeah, this looks over.  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

County Supervisor, 4th District
Completed Precincts: 276 of 276
Vote Count Percentage
DOUG CHAFFEE 74,972 50.4%
TIM SHAW 73,842 49.6%

Chaffee trend still increasing, from 960 to 1,130.  Looks bad for Shaw.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
HARRY SIDHU 25,992 32.8%
ASHLEIGH AITKEN 25,244 31.8%
LORRI GALLOWAY 11,966 15.1%
CYNTHIA WARD 6,978 8.8%
H. FUJI SHIOURA 2,887 3.6%
ROBERT WILLIAMS 2,707 3.4%
RUDY GAONA 2,388 3.0%
TONY D. MARTIN 1,140 1.4%

Aitken trend not strong enough yet — although finally a sizeable amount of votes got counted in this race — but challenged provisionals of her voters are the ones most likely to be out there.

Repeating yet again:

HOWEVER, there is good reason to suspect that a sizable number of provisional ballots are being challenged in Anaheim, whose percentage of the overall vote has been shrinking each day over the last week just when one would think it would be growing as the ROV moves to counting provisional votes, and therefore are not reflected in these figures.  [NOTE: THIS CHANGED TODAY.] (This will be the topic of a longer separate story, as soon as I can get to it.  Let’s just say for now that if it turns out that Disney lawyers are trying to obstruct or even just delay counting of the Latino vote in their flagship city, every network except maybe Disney’s own ABC and Fox will be interested in it.)

What this suggests is that the theory was correct — and that many of the provisionals may have had their voters located and gotten approved for inclusion.  I AM GOING TO TRY TO FIND THOSE BALLOTS IF I CAN AND SEE WHOSE NAMES WERE BEING EXCLUDED.  IF IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET COPIES OF THE ENVELOPE SIGNATURES THEMSELVES TO BE EXAMINED PRIVATELY BY A COURT’S SPECIAL MASTER, I WILL DO THAT AS WELL.  IF PEOPLE (who I’m merely guessing might be affiliated with Disney) HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PREVENT THE EXPEDITED COUNTING OF LATINO BALLOTS ON FLIMSY BASES IN VIOLATION OF THE LAW, I’M GOING TO FIND LAWYERS MUCH BETTER THAN I AM AND MAKE THE SCOFFLAWS VERY SORRY.

CITY OF BREA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA HUPP 9,611 24.0%
* STEVEN VARGAS 7,641 19.0%
* GLENN G. PARKER 6,869 17.1%
STEVE SHATYNSKI 5,731 14.3%
BILL R. HALL 5,094 12.7%
BLAKE PEREZ 2,968 7.4%
SEAN THOMAS 2,208 5.5%

Yeah, pretty much over.

CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 8 of 8
Vote Count Percentage
SUNNY YOUNGSUN PARK 1,526 34.8%
* VIRGINIA VAUGHN 1,516 34.6%
W. “VAL” SADOWINSKI 1,343 30.6%

These are from provisional ballots, which by definition are cast on election day.  The margin dropped from 14 to 10; Park gained 7, Vaughn 11, and Val 6.  If many provisionals remain, Park is in trouble.  If not … well, it will be close either way.

CITY OF CYPRESS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 21 of 21
Vote Count Percentage
* JON PEAT 8,239 22.1%
* STACY BERRY 7,700 20.7%
* PAULO MORALES 6,875 18.4%
FRANCES MARQUEZ 5,623 15.1%
STEVEN D. BRADLEY 4,963 13.3%
NETTIE BRYAN 3,870 10.4%

It’s over.

CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25
Vote Count Percentage
* MICHAEL VO 8,718 16.5%
PATRICK HARPER 8,250 15.6%
KIM CONSTANTINE 7,914 15.0%
GLENN GRANDIS 6,739 12.7%
TOM NGUYEN 6,148 11.6%
DAVE OSBORN 5,602 10.6%
PATRICK TUCKER 5,584 10.6%
TAM (NICK) LECONG 3,966 7.5%

Looks done.

CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Member, City Council, District 4
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
* PHAT BUI 2,594 40.0%
MARK ANTHONY PAREDES 2,232 34.4%
JOE DOVINH 1,662 25.6%

Looks over.  Sorry, Mark.

CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 91 of 91
Vote Count Percentage
FARRAH N. KHAN 21,674 15.4%
ANTHONY KUO 20,158 14.4%
CARRIE O’MALLEY 18,473 13.2%
LAUREN JOHNSON-NORRIS 16,272 11.6%
KEV ABAZAJIAN 15,804 11.3%
FRANK MCGILL 11,807 8.4%
JACI WOODS 9,596 6.8%
MARK NEWGENT 7,513 5.3%
JOHN PARK 6,340 4.5%
GANG CHEN 5,392 3.8%
LIQING LEE SUN 5,062 3.6%
DAVID CHEY 2,341 1.7%

We’re not calling this yet because … because … well, no.  It’s over.

CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 16 of 16
Vote Count Percentage
* TONI ISEMAN 4,514 14.7%
PETER BLAKE 4,482 14.6%
SUE KEMPF 4,195 13.6%
ANN CHRISTOPH 3,975 12.9%
CHERYL KINSMAN 3,798 12.4%
JUDIE MANCUSO 2,627 8.5%
* ROBERT “ROB” ZUR SCHMIEDE 2,076 6.8%
PAUL MERRITT 1,919 6.2%
LORENE LAGUNA 1,306 4.2%
SUE MARIE CONNOLLY 631 2.1%
ALLISON T. MATHEWS 496 1.6%
ELIZABETH “LIZ” BATES 492 1.6%
JORG DUBIN (W) 238 0.8%

Christoph narrows the lead by about 20.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL MOORE 5,333 35.2%
* JOE RAINEY 4,945 32.7%
JUDITH P. TROUTMAN 4,861 32.1%

Lead for second seat expands from 76 to 84.

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 76 of 76
Vote Count Percentage
TIM STOAKS 17,276 50.4%
* MARSHALL “DUFFY” DUFFIELD 17,018 49.6%

Prior lead was 311.  Significant late move by Duffy to cut it to 258.

CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 28 of 28
Vote Count Percentage
DAN BANE 11,387 16.4%
LAURA FERGUSON 8,220 11.9%
* KATHY WARD 7,566 10.9%
GENE W. JAMES 7,014 10.1%
WAYNE EGGLESTON 5,610 8.1%
BERNIE WOHLFARTH 5,525 8.0%
JACKSON HINKLE 5,418 7.8%
JAKE RYBCZYK 4,986 7.2%
DON BROWN 4,921 7.1%
MIKII RATHMANN 3,687 5.3%
ED WARD 3,034 4.4%
TIFFANY JOY ROBSON LEET 1,897 2.7%

Very few new votes counted.  James remains within striking distance of Ward — but that’s not the way to bet.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 27,400 50.7%
SAL TINAJERO 26,617 49.3%

Two days ago, Pulido at 50.9%, 26,667 to 25,617.  Yesterday, Pulido at 50.8%, 27,142 to 26,319.  Today, Pulido at 50.7%, 27,400 to 26,617.

One of two things is happening.  One is that the late trend is good for Tinajero but that he’s going to run out of remaining days.  The other is that … repeating yet again:

This is another one where I strongly suspect, without having sought or received evidence to back up my opinion, that Pulido’s people have been challenging provisional ballots from areas (and possibly ethnicities) that they believe will be more likely to support Tinajero.  If so, then the likelihood is good that Tinajero will eventually win — but his mayoral term will have a difficult birth.  … Definitely not over until the last provisional is counted.

I don’t think that we’ll get much warning before the trickle of ballots — including all eligible provisionals — stops.  Every day it goes on is probably going to be a good one for Tinajero.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 6
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 20,297 39.0%
NELIDA MENDOZA 17,710 34.0%
MIRNA VELASQUEZ 14,025 27.0%

In this citywide vote (thanks for the reminder!), the numbers from yesterday closely follow the narrow split between Pulido and Tinajero.  But Mendoza has far more ground to make up, so this one is over.

Why, Mirna Velasquez, why?

CITY OF VILLA PARK Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 6 of 6
Vote Count Percentage
CRYSTAL K. MILES 2,123 29.5%
CHAD ZIMMERMAN 2,009 27.9%
* ROBERT COLLACOTT 1,639 22.8%
* DIANA C. FASCENELLI 1,421 19.8%

This one is over.

CITY OF WESTMINSTER Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 34 of 34
Vote Count Percentage
TAI DO 7,690 17.0%
CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN 7,484 16.5%
JAMISON POWER 6,544 14.4%
AMY WEST 5,499 12.1%
ANITA A. RICE 5,453 12.0%
FRANCES THE-THUY NGUYEN 3,812 8.4%
ANDY QUACH 2,200 4.9%
MARK LAWRENCE 2,042 4.5%
SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN 2,021 4.5%
KHAI DAO 1,347 3.0%
JASON GRAY 576 1.3%
RANDY YOUNG 418 0.9%
VISUAL WILLIAM 230 0.5%

Chi Charlie’s lead over Power drops by about 100.  Only the possibility of spurious challenges to provisionals keeps hope for this one alive.

 

CAPISTRANO BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 1 of 1
Vote Count Percentage
* MIKE HAACK 47 25.8%
ARDESHIR IRANI 38 20.9%
PATRICK MC NULTY 28 15.4%
CHARLOTTE M. BLOOM 24 13.2%
ROBERT H. BANCROFT 23 12.6%
* KURTIS BREEDING 22 12.1%

No change.

MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW NGUYEN 13,461 23.4%
SERGIO CONTRERAS 13,149 22.9%
* MARGIE L. RICE 12,993 22.6%
* FRANK COBO 11,145 19.4%
ANDY QUACH 6,672 11.6%

Rice continues pulling away from Cobo.  I think we can call this one.

IRVINE RANCH WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 246 of 246
Vote Count Percentage
* DOUG REINHART 62,511 26.0%
* STEVE LAMAR 60,831 25.3%
* PEER A. SWAN 51,632 21.5%
ANDREW R. POLLARD 49,406 20.6%
RICHARD A. VANZINI

Swan up 397; Pollard up around 495.  Still in play.

EL TORO WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
* KATHRYN FRESHLEY 11,341 39.1%
MIKE GASKINS 9,133 31.5%
* FREDERICK J. ADJARIAN 8,539 29.4%

Adjarian closes the margin by 4.  This likely gets called tomorrow.

MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 86 of 86
Vote Count Percentage
KELLY JENNINGS 29,823 24.0%
* DONALD R. FROELICH 28,161 22.7%
WILLIAM “BILL” MOORHEAD 23,642 19.1%
KEN MADDOX 22,203 17.9%
JOEL BISHOP 10,762 8.7%
SHERRY WANNINGER 9,428 7.6%

Moorhead adds 250 while Maddox adds 253.  On its way out.

L-City of Anaheim, Initiative Ordinance to Increase Minimum Wage
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 43,784 53.9%
No 37,504 46.1%

YES adds 1100 votes.  NO adds 611 votes.  Margin jumps from 5,791 to 6,204.  I’m only leaving this up here because of the probable correlation to the Mayoral vote.

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 479,011

Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 415,026

Total Estimated Left to Count: 63,985

Vote-by-Mail Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 123,800 (NOTE: INCREASE OF 3000, may have been misreporting rather than “ballot discovery” as by far most are listed as having been counted)

Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 123,472

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 328

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130000

Total provisionals counted: 71,660

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 58,340

Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 187,800

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 187,526

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 274

Election Day Paper Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 13200

Total election day paper ballots counted: 11,696

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 1,504

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 20,947

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,672

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 275

Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 3,264

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 0

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 3,264


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose worker's rights and government accountability attorney, residing in northwest Brea. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Occasionally runs for office to challenge some nasty incumbent who would otherwise run unopposed. (Someday he might pick a fight with the intent to win rather than just dent someone. You'll know it when you see it.) He got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012 and in 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. A family member co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)