Close 2018 Races Report, 11/29 – Circling the Drain


 Powered by Max Banner Ads 

.

.

.

The ballots, they dwindle to a precious few….

Notable results and non-results:

  • The Anaheim report will now return to its assigned place.  But the city saw only 100 votes counted despite a whole bunch of provisionals being counted, so it seems likely that that sweet “backwash” theory of how the last spoonful or two of the vote would be more Democratic didn’t work so well.  (They were Democratic, but less informed — which may explain the shift towards Galloway.)
  • They counted exactly 6,000 provisionals yesterday.  About 2,600 are left.
  • Sunny Park increased her lead.  So there’s that.
  • A summary of other notable results will appear eventually.  Somewhere.
  • I expect one more day of counting, maybe two if there are special things that need to be done for the final count, or if staff gets slashed, etc.

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 479,191Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 476,466

Total Estimated Left to Count: 2,725

Vote-by-Mail Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 127,500Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 127,477

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 23

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 123000Total provisionals counted: 120,397

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 2,603

Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 191,530

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 191,503

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 27

Election Day Paper Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 13200Total election day paper ballots counted: 13,175

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 25

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 20,697

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,672

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 25

Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 3,264

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 3,242

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 22

ALL OF THE REMAINING CLOSE CONTESTS! (~1%)

Here are the downballot races that are still close.  I have generally included the static numbers from Tuesday’s OC ROV report and the Secretary of State’s office (for multi-county races) and the trend from the previous reports on Saturday.  In each race, the name in orange is currently barely in and the one in magenta is currently barely out.  (I’m somewhat arbitrarily and selectively drawing the line right around “under 2%,” down 1% from the previous day’s criterion.)

If you know anything interesting about these races and why we should care about them, please speak up!

First, the “bragging rights” contest: will OC go Blue for Governor?

Governor
Completed Precincts: 1546 of 1546
Vote Count Percentage
GAVIN NEWSOM (DEM) 540,690 50.1%
JOHN H. COX (REP) 538,243 49.9%

The lead went from 1,920 to 2,447.

LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL NORMANDIN 5,883 21.9%
* DEE NAMBA PERRY 5,663 21.1%
JAMES J. KELLY 5,511 20.5%
CHRISTINE DE BRETTEVILLE 5,491 20.4%
MARK NELSON 3,588 13.3%
HOWARD HILLS (W) 753 2.8%

Normandin picked up 26 votes, Perry 17, Kelly 21, and De Bretteville 22.  Kelly’s lead dropped from 31 to 30.  This is probably over, but we’ll stay to the bitter end.

LOS ALAMITOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 35 of 35
Vote Count Percentage
MARLYS DAVIDSON 10,351 26.4%
* DIANA D. HILL 9,597 24.5%
* JEFFREY I. BARKE 9,564 24.4%
OLAINA ANDERSON 6,824 17.4%
CONNOR SWAN SMITH 2,824 7.2%

Hill picks up 12.  Barke gains 12.  Margin remains at 33.  As above: probably over, but we’ll keep watching.

FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
REGINA CUADRA 4,281 50.8%
CHESTER JENG 4,152 49.2%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Jeng up 217 in LA , minus Cuadra by 129 (down 2) in OC, equals Jeng up by 88 — up from 86.

Candidate(s) Votes Percent
Chester Jeng (N) 2,012 52.85%
Regina Cuadra (N) 1,795 47.15%

Fullerton Joint Union High School District Governing Board Member, Trustee Area No. 1  LA VOTE — STAYS THE SAME!

 

HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 37 of 37
Vote Count Percentage
* PAUL R. MORROW 17,578 25.5%
DIANA MARKS 14,563 21.1%
* SHARI KOWALKE 13,653 19.8%
JENNIFER HAYDEN 13,468 19.5%
KARRIE BURROUGHS 9,753 14.1%

Kowalke adds 41.  Hayden adds 54.  Lead down to 185.  Like the first two: probably over, but keep watching.

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
* PATRICIA SINGER 17,989 24.6%
* JOHN BRISCOE 15,759 21.5%
* JACK C. SOUDERS 15,446 21.1%
GRACEY VAN DER MARK 12,817 17.5%
KATE HOLMES 11,202 15.3%

Souders’s margin over  VDMark shrinks from 637 to 629.  It’s over and it’s going to look pretty much like this.  We’re dropping coverage of this one.

County Supervisor, 4th District
Completed Precincts: 276 of 276
Vote Count Percentage
DOUG CHAFFEE 76,769 50.4%
TIM SHAW 75,449 49.6%

Chaffee adds 220, Shaw adds 166.  Will the margin reach 1%?

CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
HARRY SIDHU 26,413 32.5%
ASHLEIGH AITKEN 25,935 31.9%
LORRI GALLOWAY 12,364 15.2%
CYNTHIA WARD 7,119 8.7%
H. FUJI SHIOURA 3,023 3.7%
ROBERT WILLIAMS 2,822 3.5%
RUDY GAONA 2,504 3.1%
TONY D. MARTIN 1,198 1.5%

Ashleigh’s deficit falls from 484 to 478 — and that’s all she wrote.  Anaheim only got 2.3% of the ballots counted today  — but there were only 100 counted.  Ashleigh did the best in provisionals, but for the second time Galloway did better in the late polling than Sidhu — which shows how much she was splitting the vote.

CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 8 of 8
Vote Count Percentage
SUNNY YOUNGSUN PARK 1,560 34.9%
* VIRGINIA VAUGHN 1,544 34.5%
W. “VAL” SADOWINSKI 1,367 30.6%

Sunny Park looked in danger yesterday when the margin suddenly dropped to 10 — but after an 8-2 run today for Park it is back up to 16.  There probably are not enough North Buena Park ballots left to make a difference.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL MOORE 5,461 35.3%
* JOE RAINEY 5,049 32.6%
JUDITH P. TROUTMAN 4,976 32.1%

Moore up by 22, Rainey by 15, Troutman by 19.  We’re done here.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL MOORE 5,439 35.2%
* JOE RAINEY 5,034 32.6%
JUDITH P. TROUTMAN 4,957 32.1%
CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 76 of 76
Vote Count Percentage
* MARSHALL “DUFFY” DUFFIELD 18,435 50.1%
TIM STOAKS 18,392 49.9%

Stoaks picks up one vote.  That won’t do it.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 28,312 50.6%
SAL TINAJERO 27,624 49.4%

Pulido picks up 89; Tinajero picks up 104.  It’s over, but we’ll still stick around.

IRVINE RANCH WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 246 of 246
Vote Count Percentage
* DOUG REINHART 65,829 26.0%
* STEVE LAMAR 63,852 25.2%
* PEER A. SWAN 54,162 21.4%
ANDREW R. POLLARD 52,260 20.7%
RICHARD A. VANZINI 16,967 6.7%

Swan picks up 206; Pollard gains 277.  Margin falls to 1,902, and that should hold.  We want to be absolutely sure on this one, so no early call.

L-City of Anaheim, Initiative Ordinance to Increase Minimum Wage
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 45,216 54.2%
No 38,219 45.8%

YES adds 70 votes.  NO adds 26 votes.  As I said, I’m only leaving this up here because of the probable correlation to the Mayoral vote — and this suggests a 70-26 liberal split in the 100 votes.  Ashleigh should have been getting that whole 70+ percent.  Alas.

 


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose worker's rights and government accountability attorney, residing in northwest Brea. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Occasionally runs for office to challenge some nasty incumbent who would otherwise run unopposed. (Someday he might pick a fight with the intent to win rather than just dent someone. You'll know it when you see it.) He got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012 and in 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. A family member co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)