Close 2018 Races Report, 11/24: Thanksgiving Leftover Results


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Here are some election results leftover from Thanksgiving!

Notable results and non-results:

  • Ashleigh Aitken today cut her deficit against Harry Sidhu from 748, to 712.  That small amount is pretty much keeping in line with previous days, as that gain of 36 came from the counting of only 338 ballots roughly 10.6% of a ballot’s gain per vote counted.
  • In a comment on the last post I estimated that Anaheim probably had about 5,400 plus-or-minus-1,000 votes still outstanding, the vast majority of them being provisionals or conditional voter registrations. I think, but am not sure (and don’t have time to check), that I made an arithmetical error in that comment, by failing to account for the fact that Sidhu and Aitken combined have been picking up only 56% of the vote lately. So when we’re talking about the margin between the two of them, 6,400 to be counted in the mayor’s race means an estimate of only 3,584 split between the two of them, 5,400 votes means only 3,024 split between them, and 4,400 votes means only 2,464 split between them.
  • So how much, presuming for now that the 56% joint share remains in effect, would Ashleigh need to get to make up a 712-vote deficit?  Respectively: 59.933%, 61.772%, and 64.444% of the joint vote between them.  And how well has Ashleigh been doing recently?  In my last three records (one of which I think is two day’s worth of results because the ROV wasn’t supposed to do a run on the 20th but did one), of the two-person share of the vote she’s gotten 59,299%, 59.886%, and today 62.500%.  Over the last week combined, she’s gotten 2,523 of the past 4,214 votes, which equals 59,872%.  Did I mention that this looked like it would be close?
  • I’m making a lot of presumptions here: that the same 56% rate of ballots go to the top two candidates, that my estimate of Anaheim’s share of the outstanding votes is correct, that the currently outstanding votes will share the vote split of the past week, when provisionals ruled (when in fact if more and more provisionals are getting approved the percentage should shift ever more towards Ashleigh — a prediction that, as you can see, came through today.)  But given those presumptions: say 6,000 votes outstanding, 56% going to the top two, and let’s make it 60% of the two-person vote going to Ashleigh, we’d we’d her pick up — well, you do the math.
  • Just kidding!  I’ll do the math.  We’d expect 3,360 votes to  go to the pair, with Ashleigh getting 2016 of them and Sidhu the other 1,344.  Ashleigh would pick up 672 votes and Sidhu would win by 40.  But if I’d made it 6400 votes, then we’d expect the pair to share 3,584 votes, of which Ashleigh gets 2,150 and Sidhu 1,434 — then Ashleigh picks up 716 votes and wins the race by 4 votes.  (I swear that I did not know that was going to happen when I picked those estimates!)
  • Ousted incumbents include Tim Surridge from Orange Unified School Board, Dennis P. Walsh from Saddleback Valley, Rob Zur Schmiede in Laguna Beach Council, Frank Cobo in the Midway City Sanitary District — and Billy O’Connell in Huntington Beach is looking a little Edison High School green around the gills.

Let’s move “What’s Left to Count?” up towards the top, because it’s getting increasingly important to our estimates:

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 479,711Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 428,534

Total Estimated Left to Count: 51,177

Vote-by-Mail Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 124200Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 123,850

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 350

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130000Total provisionals counted: 84,292

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 45,708

Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 188100

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 187,846

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 254

Election Day Paper Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 13200

Total election day paper ballots counted: 11,696

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 1,504

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 20,947

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,672

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 275

Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 3,264

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 178

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 3,086

ALL OF THE REMAINING CLOSE CONTESTS! (~2%)

Here are the downballot races that are still close.  I have generally included the static numbers from Tuesday’s OC ROV report and the Secretary of State’s office (for multi-county races) and the trend from the previous reports on Saturday.  In each race, the name in orange is currently barely in and the one in magenta is currently barely out.  (I’m somewhat arbitrarily and selectively drawing the line right around “under 2%,” down 1% from the previous day’s criterion.)

If you know anything interesting about these races and why we should care about them, please speak up!

LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL NORMANDIN 5,720 21.9%
* DEE NAMBA PERRY 5,538 21.2%
JAMES J. KELLY 5,375 20.5%
CHRISTINE DE BRETTEVILLE 5,331 20.4%
MARK NELSON 3,461 13.2%
HOWARD HILLS (W) 740 2.8%

Normandin is safe.  Perry may not be.  Perry picked up 166, Kelly 178, and De Bretteville 203.  Perry’s lead over Kelly drops from 175 to 163 while Kelly’s lead drops from 69 to 44.  De Bretteville is two more days like this from passing Kelly (and six to pass Perry), while Kelly would need 14 more days like this to pass Perry.

LOS ALAMITOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 35 of 35
Vote Count Percentage
MARLYS DAVIDSON 10,226 26.4%
* DIANA D. HILL 9,481 24.5%
* JEFFREY I. BARKE 9,458 24.4%
OLAINA ANDERSON 6,749 17.4%
CONNOR SWAN SMITH 2,781 7.2%

Hill and Barke both pick up 39 votes.  For context, Davidson picks up 34, but is not in trouble.

SADDLEBACK VALLEY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 128 of 128
Vote Count Percentage
BARBARA SCHULMAN 37,807 32.5%
GREG KUNATH 27,377 23.5%
DAN WALSH 26,222 22.5%
* DENNIS P WALSH 25,049 21.5%

Schulman remains safe.  Kunath picks up 114, Dan Walsh 147, Dennis Walsh 143 and is out of the game.  Kunath’s lead shrinks from 188 to 155.  Five more days like this would change the lead.

FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
REGINA CUADRA 4,205 50.6%
CHESTER JENG 4,100 49.4%
Fullerton Joint Union High School District Governing Board Member, Trustee Area No. 1  LA VOTE!
Candidate(s) Votes Percent
Chester Jeng (N) 1,955 53.31%
Regina Cuadra (N) 1,712 46.69%

So overall Jeng is up by 138.  Or so.

ANAHEIM ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
JUAN GABRIEL ALVAREZ 3,413 51.9%
* JEFF COLE 3,163 48.1%

Alvarez is pulling away in late ballots.  We’ll call this one.

HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 37 of 37
Vote Count Percentage
* PAUL R. MORROW 17,383 25.5%
DIANA MARKS 14,372 21.1%
* SHARI KOWALKE 13,475 19.8%
JENNIFER HAYDEN 13,282 19.5%
KARRIE BURROUGHS 9,583 14.1%

Marks adds 562, Kowalke 455, Hayden 565.  Kowalke’s lead over Hayden drops from 303 to 193.  Two more days like this would change the lead.

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
* PATRICIA SINGER 17,800 24.6%
* JOHN BRISCOE 15,581 21.5%
* JACK C. SOUDERS 15,270 21.1%
GRACEY VAN DER MARK 12,641 17.5%
KATE HOLMES 11,037 15.3%

This looks over, but we’ll keep watching it because the final margin might matter to future elections.  Singer is safe.  Briscoe adds 88.  Souders adds 74.  VDMark 85.  Decisive, but one wants even more!

County Supervisor, 4th District
Completed Precincts: 276 of 276
Vote Count Percentage
DOUG CHAFFEE 75,193 50.4%
TIM SHAW 74,056 49.6%

Chaffee’s lead up by 7 to 1137.  Percentage is still tight, so while the game’s over let’s wait to see the final score.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
HARRY SIDHU 26,046 32.7%
ASHLEIGH AITKEN 25,334 31.8%
LORRI GALLOWAY 12,045 15.1%
CYNTHIA WARD 7,008 8.8%
H. FUJI SHIOURA 2,911 3.7%
ROBERT WILLIAMS 2,732 3.4%
RUDY GAONA 2,413 3.0%
TONY D. MARTIN 1,151 1.4%

See my discussion up at the top of the post.  Aitken trend not strong enough yet — although finally a sizeable amount of votes got counted in this race — but challenged provisionals of her voters are the ones most likely to be out there.  Note that the “56% for the top two candidates” number I use is far lower than the 64.5% number that we see overall.  (That may suggest some random voting at among the provisions — probably more helpful to Ashleigh, if so, than to Sidhu.

Repeating yet again:

HOWEVER, there is good reason to suspect that a sizable number of provisional ballots are being challenged in Anaheim, whose percentage of the overall vote has been shrinking each day over the last week just when one would think it would be growing as the ROV moves to counting provisional votes, and therefore are not reflected in these figures.  [NOTE: THIS CHANGED TODAY.] (This will be the topic of a longer separate story, as soon as I can get to it.  Let’s just say for now that if it turns out that Disney lawyers are trying to obstruct or even just delay counting of the Latino vote in their flagship city, every network except maybe Disney’s own ABC and Fox will be interested in it.)

What this suggests is that the theory was correct — and that many of the provisionals may have had their voters located and gotten approved for inclusion.  I AM GOING TO TRY TO FIND THOSE BALLOTS IF I CAN AND SEE WHOSE NAMES WERE BEING EXCLUDED.  IF IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET COPIES OF THE ENVELOPE SIGNATURES THEMSELVES TO BE EXAMINED PRIVATELY BY A COURT’S SPECIAL MASTER, I WILL DO THAT AS WELL.  IF PEOPLE (who I’m merely guessing might be affiliated with Disney) HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PREVENT THE EXPEDITED COUNTING OF LATINO BALLOTS ON FLIMSY BASES IN VIOLATION OF THE LAW, I’M GOING TO FIND LAWYERS MUCH BETTER THAN I AM AND MAKE THE SCOFFLAWS VERY SORRY.

CITY OF BREA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA HUPP 9,621 23.9%
* STEVEN VARGAS 7,654 19.1%
* GLENN G. PARKER 6,874 17.1%
STEVE SHATYNSKI 5,736 14.3%
BILL R. HALL 5,105 12.7%
BLAKE PEREZ 2,971 7.4%
SEAN THOMAS 2,214 5.5%

We’re done with this one.  It’s over.

CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 8 of 8
Vote Count Percentage
SUNNY YOUNGSUN PARK 1,529 34.8%
* VIRGINIA VAUGHN 1,518 34.6%
W. “VAL” SADOWINSKI 1,343 30.6%

These are from provisional ballots, which by definition are cast on election day.  The margin rose from 10 to 11; Park gained 3, Vaughn 2, and Val 0.  If many provisionals remain, Park is in trouble.  If not … well, it will be close either way.

CITY OF CYPRESS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 21 of 21
Vote Count Percentage
* JON PEAT 8,246 22.1%
* STACY BERRY 7,705 20.7%
* PAULO MORALES 6,877 18.4%
FRANCES MARQUEZ 5,625 15.1%
STEVEN D. BRADLEY 4,963 13.3%
NETTIE BRYAN 3,873 10.4%

This race is over.

 

 

CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 91 of 91
CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 16 of 16
Vote Count Percentage
PETER BLAKE 4,716 14.7%
* TONI ISEMAN 4,667 14.6%
SUE KEMPF 4,355 13.6%
ANN CHRISTOPH 4,108 12.8%
CHERYL KINSMAN 3,941 12.3%
JUDIE MANCUSO 2,726 8.5%
* ROBERT “ROB” ZUR SCHMIEDE 2,145 6.7%
PAUL MERRITT 2,007 6.3%
LORENE LAGUNA 1,363 4.3%
SUE MARIE CONNOLLY 693 2.2%
ELIZABETH “LIZ” BATES 529 1.7%
ALLISON T. MATHEWS 507 1.6%
JORG DUBIN (W) 247 0.8%

Kempf widens that gap a little on Christoph, adding 160 compared to 133.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL MOORE 5,341 35.2%
* JOE RAINEY 4,948 32.6%
JUDITH P. TROUTMAN 4,868 32.1%

Moore adds 8, Rainey 3, Troutman 7.  Probably just a slow day.

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 76 of 76
Vote Count Percentage
TIM STOAKS 17,927 50.1%
* MARSHALL “DUFFY” DUFFIELD 17,873 49.9%

Stoaks adds 651, but Duffield adds 855, closing the gap from 258 to 54.  What the heck?  Why is Duffy raging on in provisionals?

 

CITY OF SAN CLEMENTE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 28 of 28
Vote Count Percentage
DAN BANE 11,414 16.4%
LAURA FERGUSON 8,231 11.9%
* KATHY WARD 7,586 10.9%
GENE W. JAMES 7,028 10.1%
WAYNE EGGLESTON 5,622 8.1%
BERNIE WOHLFARTH 5,544 8.0%
JACKSON HINKLE 5,439 7.8%
JAKE RYBCZYK 5,007 7.2%
DON BROWN 4,938 7.1%
MIKII RATHMANN 3,696 5.3%
ED WARD 3,048 4.4%
TIFFANY JOY ROBSON LEET 1,906 2.7%

Very few new votes counted.  James remains within striking distance of Ward — but that’s not the way to bet.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 27,528 50.7%
SAL TINAJERO 26,733 49.3%

Pulido picks up 128; Tinajero gains 156.  Slow day in Santana.  First day in four that Pulido hasn’t dropped a tenth of a percent.

Repeating: one of two things is happening.  One is that the late trend is good for Tinajero but that he’s going to run out of remaining days.  The other is that this is another one where I strongly suspect, without having sought or received evidence to back up my opinion, that Pulido’s people have been challenging provisional ballots from areas (and possibly ethnicities) that they believe will be more likely to support Tinajero.  If so, then the likelihood is good that Tinajero will eventually win — but his mayoral term will have a difficult birth.  … Definitely not over until the last provisional is counted.

I don’t think that we’ll get much warning before the trickle of ballots — including all eligible provisionals — stops.  Every day it goes on is probably going to be a good one for Tinajero.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 6
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 20,397 39.0%
NELIDA MENDOZA 17,789 34.0%
MIRNA VELASQUEZ 14,081 26.9%

Almost no movement.  This is almost surely over; it’s just the possibility of a flood of provisionals that keeps me watching.

CITY OF WESTMINSTER Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 34 of 34
Vote Count Percentage
TAI DO 7,720 17.0%
CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN 7,507 16.5%
JAMISON POWER 6,560 14.4%
AMY WEST 5,508 12.1%
ANITA A. RICE 5,474 12.0%
FRANCES THE-THUY NGUYEN 3,829 8.4%
ANDY QUACH 2,206 4.9%
MARK LAWRENCE 2,050 4.5%
SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN 2,030 4.5%
KHAI DAO 1,354 3.0%
JASON GRAY 578 1.3%
RANDY YOUNG 419 0.9%
VISUAL WILLIAM 230 0.5%

Almost no movement.  Only the possibility of spurious challenges to provisionals keeps hope for this one alive.

CAPISTRANO BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 1 of 1
Vote Count Percentage
* MIKE HAACK 47 25.8%
ARDESHIR IRANI 38 20.9%
PATRICK MC NULTY 28 15.4%
CHARLOTTE M. BLOOM 24 13.2%
ROBERT H. BANCROFT 23 12.6%
* KURTIS BREEDING 22 12.1%

No change.

IRVINE RANCH WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 246 of 246
Vote Count Percentage
* DOUG REINHART 63,060 26.0%
* STEVE LAMAR 61,318 25.3%
* PEER A. SWAN 52,029 21.5%
ANDREW R. POLLARD 49,872 20.6%
RICHARD A. VANZINI 15,989 6.6%

Swan picks up 397; Pollard gains 466.  The lead shrinks from 2,226 to 2,157,  If he only loses 69 votes per day, Swan can wait him out.

MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 86 of 86
Vote Count Percentage
KELLY JENNINGS 30,622 24.1%
* DONALD R. FROELICH 28,804 22.6%
WILLIAM “BILL” MOORHEAD 24,267 19.1%
KEN MADDOX 22,755 17.9%
JOEL BISHOP 11,016 8.7%
SHERRY WANNINGER 9,713 7.6%

Moorhead picks up 625,  Maddox gains 552.

L-City of Anaheim, Initiative Ordinance to Increase Minimum Wage
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 44,026 53.9%
No 37,615 46.1%

YES adds 242 votes.  NO adds 111 votes.  Margin jumps from  6,280 to 6411.  I’m only leaving this up here because of the probable correlation to the Mayoral vote.


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose worker's rights and government accountability attorney, residing in northwest Brea. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Occasionally runs for office to challenge some nasty incumbent who would otherwise run unopposed. (Someday he might pick a fight with the intent to win rather than just dent someone. You'll know it when you see it.) He got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012 and in 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. A family member co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)