UPDATED: Cisneros? Umberg? Aitken? Tinajero? Castellano? J-Lo?


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How far can the Democratic storm surge rise?

(1) The Surge

We hear the same from people who were trapped in cars driven into rivers (where there’s often a way out once pressure equalizes, so the analogy doesn’t work) or from those trapped in caves, from those who managed to find an air pocket.

But what happens when the water doesn’t stop — and there’s no escape? We don’t hear those stories, because we only hear from survivors.

This election didn’t at first seem like that big of a “blue wave” — because, as with a tsunami, much of the moving water was beneath the surface. In this case, in the late absentees and provisionals.

You only know how big the wave really was when the water stops rising. So far, it hasn’t.

(2) The Numbers

Katie Porter of CA-45 is already in the lead and on her way to Congress.

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 45th District
Completed Precincts: 444 of 444
Vote Count Percentage
KATIE PORTER (DEM) 126,574 50.8%
* MIMI WALTERS (REP) 122,777 49.2%

Gil Cisneros of CA-39 looks like he might take the lead for good as early as today.  If not, then unless the next tranche of ballots from LA includes mostly heretofore uncounted Asian Republican areas, LA will put him definitively over the top tomorrow.

Total:

Candidate Votes Percent
Gil Cisneros

(Party Preference: DEM)
99,379
50.0%
Young Kim

(Party Preference: REP)
99,501
50.0%

Orange:

Young Kim

(Party Preference: REP)
68,237
52.4%
 Gil Cisneros

(Party Preference: DEM)
62,014 47.6%

Los Angeles

Young Kim

(Party Preference: REP)
20,254
43.1%
 Gil Cisneros

(Party Preference: DEM)
26,701 56.9%

San Bernardino:

Young Kim

(Party Preference: REP)
11,010
50.8%
 Gil Cisneros

(Party Preference: DEM)
10,664 49.2%

Tom Umberg of SD-34 continues an improbable float to the top.

Total:

Candidate Votes Percent
Tom Umberg

(Party Preference: DEM)
104,766
49.0%
Janet Nguyen

(Party Preference: REP)
109,192
51.0%

Orange:

Candidate Votes Percent
Tom Umberg

(Party Preference: DEM)
91,239
48.3%
Janet Nguyen

(Party Preference: REP)
97,589
51.7%

Los Angeles:

Candidate Votes Percent
Tom Umberg

(Party Preference: DEM)
13,527
53.8%
Janet Nguyen

(Party Preference: REP)
11,603
46.2%

How much further could it go?

Santa Ana Mayor

Sal Tinajero has been gaining ground on Miguel Pulido.

* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 21,512 51.2%
SAL TINAJERO 20,477 48.8%

Anaheim Mayor

Ashleigh Aitken has been gaining ground on Harry Sidhu.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
HARRY SIDHU 22,561 34.2%
ASHLEIGH AITKEN 20,700 31.4%
LORRI GALLOWAY 9,745 14.8%
CYNTHIA WARD 5,913 9.0%
H. FUJI SHIOURA 2,232 3.4%
ROBERT WILLIAMS 2,085 3.2%
RUDY GAONA 1,801 2.7%
TONY D. MARTIN 882 1.3%

That far?

Senate District 36 – Marggie Castellano?

Total

Marggie Castellano

(Party Preference: DEM)
150,443
47.3%
*Patricia C. ‘Pat’ Bates

(Party Preference: REP)
167,487 52.7%

San Diego

Marggie Castellano

(Party Preference: DEM)
76,425
52.6%
*Patricia C. ‘Pat’ Bates

(Party Preference: REP)
68,844 52.7%

Orange County

Marggie Castellano

(Party Preference: DEM)
74,018
42.9%
*Patricia C. ‘Pat’ Bates

(Party Preference: REP)
98,643 57.1%

This far?

Josh Lowenthal in AD-72

Josh Lowenthal

(Party Preference: DEM)
62,552
47.4%
 Tyler Diep

(Party Preference: REP)
69,500 52.6%

This far?

Presumably Bill Brough in AD-73, with 56.9%, is safe from Scott Rhinehart.

Presumably Steven Choi in AD-65, with 54.5%, is safe from Michelle Duman.

Presumably Phillip Chen in AD-55, with 56.5%, is safe from Gregg Fritchle.

But only presumably.  The water is still rising, and we don’t know for how long.

 

 


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose worker's rights and government accountability attorney, residing in northwest Brea. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Occasionally runs for office to challenge some nasty incumbent who would otherwise run unopposed. (Someday he might pick a fight with the intent to win rather than just dent someone. You'll know it when you see it.) He got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012 and in 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. A family member co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)