Close 2018 Races Report, 11/20: Ashleigh Cuts 1/3 Off Sidhu’s Lead!


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Notable results and non-results:

  • Ashleigh Aitken today cut her deficit against Harry Sidhu by more than a third, from 1406 to 890!
  • Ousted incumbents include Tim Surridge from Orange Unified School Board, Dennis P. Walsh from Saddleback Valley, Rob Zur Schmiede in Laguna Beach Council, Frank Cobo in the Midway City Sanitary District — and Billy O’Connell in Huntington Beach is looking a little Edison High School green around the gills.

 

Here are the downballot races that are still close.  I have generally included the static numbers from Tuesday’s OC ROV report and the Secretary of State’s office (for multi-county races) and the trend from the previous reports on Saturday.  In each race, the name in orange is currently barely in and the one in magenta is currently barely out.  (I’m somewhat arbitrarily and selectively drawing the line right around “under 4%,” down 1% from yesterday’s criterion.)

If you know anything interesting about these races and why we should care about them, please speak up!

Following the race updates will be the update of the “What’s Left to Count” report from the OCROV and a list of useful links.

LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL NORMANDIN 5,418 22.0%
* DEE NAMBA PERRY 5,277 21.4%
JAMES J. KELLY 5,096 20.7%
CHRISTINE DE BRETTEVILLE 5,001 20.3%
MARK NELSON 3,169 12.8%
HOWARD HILLS (W) 711 2.9%

James Kelley adds 33 votes, Christine de Bretteville adds 29.  Lead expands from 91 to 95.

LOS ALAMITOS UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 35 of 35
Vote Count Percentage
MARLYS DAVIDSON 10,066 26.4%
* DIANA D. HILL 9,322 24.5%
* JEFFREY I. BARKE 9,309 24.5%
OLAINA ANDERSON 6,649 17.5%
CONNOR SWAN SMITH 2,720 7.1%

Diana Hill adds 258 votes; Jeffrey Barke adds 261.  Lead shrinks from 26 votes to 23.

SADDLEBACK VALLEY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 128 of 128
Vote Count Percentage
BARBARA SCHULMAN 37,318 32.5%
GREG KUNATH 27,074 23.5%
DAN WALSH 25,872 22.5%
* DENNIS P WALSH 24,719 21.5%

Kunath over Dan Walsh by 1202 votes, down 8.

FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
REGINA CUADRA 4,114 50.5%
CHESTER JENG 4,028 49.5%

Cuadra adds 1 vote, Jeng 3.  Lead at 86.

ANAHEIM ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
JUAN GABRIEL ALVAREZ 3,332 51.6%
* JEFF COLE 3,124 48.4%

Juan Gabriel Alvarez adds 331 votes.  Jeff Cole adds 201 votes.  Lead expands from 78 to 208 votes.  Trend favors Alvarez, but we’ll keep reporting on it.

HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 37 of 37
Vote Count Percentage
* PAUL R. MORROW 16,582 25.7%
DIANA MARKS 13,601 21.1%
* SHARI KOWALKE 12,816 19.9%
JENNIFER HAYDEN 12,459 19.3%
KARRIE BURROUGHS 8,946 13.9%

In the fight for third place, Shari Kowalke led Jennifer Hayden by 358 votes.  Kowalke gained 10 votes, Hayden gained 11, and the margin is now 357.

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
* PATRICIA SINGER 17,604 24.6%
* JOHN BRISCOE 15,415 21.6%
* JACK C. SOUDERS 15,127 21.2%
GRACEY VAN DER MARK 12,488 17.5%
KATE HOLMES 10,880 15.2%

In the fight for the third seat, Jack Souders led Gracey Van Der Mark by 2,623 votes.  Souders added 211 to his total.  GVDM added 205.  We all know this is over … but let’s keep counting until the end just to make sure.

County Supervisor, 4th District
Completed Precincts: 276 of 276
Vote Count Percentage
DOUG CHAFFEE 73,695 50.3%
TIM SHAW 72,735 49.7%

Yesterday, Chaffee led Shaw by 572 votes.  Today, the late Democratic advantage pushes that margin to 960 votes.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Mayor
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
HARRY SIDHU 25,608 33.0%
ASHLEIGH AITKEN 24,716 31.8%
LORRI GALLOWAY 11,687 15.0%
CYNTHIA WARD 6,852 8.8%
H. FUJI SHIOURA 2,799 3.6%
ROBERT WILLIAMS 2,621 3.4%
RUDY GAONA 2,297 3.0%
TONY D. MARTIN 1,112 1.4%

Harry Sidhu led Ashleigh Aitken yesterday by a margin of 1,406 votes.  Today that margin is down to 892 votes — a drop of more than 1/3.  Is that significant?  You bet.

Here’s what I wrote yesterday:

HOWEVER, there is good reason to suspect that a sizable number of provisional ballots are being challenged in Anaheim, whose percentage of the overall vote has been shrinking each day over the last week just when one would think it would be growing as the ROV moves to counting provisional votes, and therefore are not reflected in these figures.  (This will be the topic of a longer separate story, as soon as I can get to it.  Let’s just say for now that if it turns out that Disney lawyers are trying to obstruct or even just delay counting of the Latino vote in their flagship city, every network except maybe Disney’s own ABC and Fox will be interested in it.)

What this suggests is that the theory was correct — and that many of the provisionals may have had their voters located and gotten approved for inclusion.  I AM GOING TO TRY TO FIND THOSE BALLOTS IF I CAN AND SEE WHOSE NAMES WERE BEING EXCLUDED.  IF IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET COPIES OF THE ENVELOPE SIGNATURES THEMSELVES TO BE EXAMINED PRIVATELY BY A COURT’S SPECIAL MASTER, I WILL DO THAT AS WELL.  IF PEOPLE (who I’m merely guessing might be affiliated with Disney) HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PREVENT THE EXPEDITED COUNTING OF LATINO BALLOTS ON FLIMSY BASES IN VIOLATION OF THE LAW, I’M GOING TO FIND LAWYERS MUCH BETTER THAN I AM AND MAKE THE SCOFFLAWS VERY SORRY.

CITY OF BREA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25
Vote Count Percentage
* CECILIA HUPP 9,513 24.0%
* STEVEN VARGAS 7,563 19.1%
* GLENN G. PARKER 6,796 17.1%
STEVE SHATYNSKI 5,678 14.3%
BILL R. HALL 5,025 12.7%
BLAKE PEREZ 2,933 7.4%
SEAN THOMAS 2,180 5.5%

The fight is between Glenn Parker and Steve Shatynski for third place.  Yesterday, Parker left Shatynski by 1,107.  Today, it’s 1,118.  Between them, they added 31 votes.  Probably over.

CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 1
Completed Precincts: 8 of 8
Vote Count Percentage
SUNNY YOUNGSUN PARK 1,519 34.8%
* VIRGINIA VAUGHN 1,505 34.5%
W. “VAL” SADOWINSKI 1,337 30.7%

Park and Vaughn both picked up 6 votes; Val picked up 2.  A margin of 14 doesn’t seem that safe, but Park is the Democrat and would normally get a late surge.  However, the sign-stealing news came late, and if provisional voters were attending to that then she might do more poorly in them.  Then again, we don’t know how many votes from this district remain to be counted at all.

CITY OF BUENA PARK Member, City Council, District 2
Completed Precincts: 10 of 10
Vote Count Percentage
* ELIZABETH “BETH” SWIFT 1,042 39.0%
IAN J. MACDONALD 902 33.8%
JAE CHUNG 728 27.2%

The margin has gone from 130 to 140 and the percentage lead from 4,9% to 5.2%.  I’d call it — except for the possibility that non-profit executive MacDonald will be helped by provisionals.  Let’s wait.

CITY OF CYPRESS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 21 of 21
Vote Count Percentage
* JON PEAT 8,228 22.1%
* STACY BERRY 7,692 20.7%
* PAULO MORALES 6,863 18.4%
FRANCES MARQUEZ 5,615 15.1%
STEVEN D. BRADLEY 4,959 13.3%
NETTIE BRYAN 3,862 10.4%

No real change, hardly any votes counted, it stays on the cusp of being called.

CITY OF FOUNTAIN VALLEY Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 25 of 25
Vote Count Percentage
* MICHAEL VO 8,685 16.5%
PATRICK HARPER 8,231 15.6%
KIM CONSTANTINE 7,877 14.9%
GLENN GRANDIS 6,716 12.7%
TOM NGUYEN 6,118 11.6%
DAVE OSBORN 5,582 10.6%
PATRICK TUCKER 5,569 10.6%
TAM (NICK) LECONG 3,948 7.5%

 

Not enough new votes counted here to make a difference.  Also on the cusp of being called.

CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Member, City Council, District 4
Completed Precincts: 9 of 9
Vote Count Percentage
* PHAT BUI 2,584 40.0%
MARK ANTHONY PAREDES 2,224 34.4%
JOE DOVINH 1,656 25.6%

Yesterday, Phat Bui led by 389 votes.  Today, it’s 360.  Bui added 24 votes; Paredes added 53.  This is within the “maybe provisionals are being challenged” zone, so I’m keeping it open.

CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 91 of 91
Vote Count Percentage
FARRAH N. KHAN 21,491 15.4%
ANTHONY KUO 20,059 14.4%
CARRIE O’MALLEY 18,380 13.2%
LAUREN JOHNSON-NORRIS 16,163 11.6%
KEV ABAZAJIAN 15,624 11.2%
FRANK MCGILL 11,740 8.4%
JACI WOODS 9,542 6.8%
MARK NEWGENT 7,435 5.3%
JOHN PARK 6,259 4.5%
GANG CHEN 5,347 3.8%
LIQING LEE SUN 5,015 3.6%
DAVID CHEY 2,303 1.7%

Only the first five names are even conceivably in the race — and that depends on a flood of provisional ballots from UCI and elsewhere.  Not much sign of that yet — though it’s possible (but not probable) that this is a race for which the state Republican Party might be challenging provisionals.  Just a trickle of ballots here today — as opposed to Anaheim — so no new analysis.  This is likely the final order of finish.

CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 16 of 16
Vote Count Percentage
* TONI ISEMAN 4,404 14.7%
PETER BLAKE 4,369 14.6%
SUE KEMPF 4,109 13.7%
ANN CHRISTOPH 3,867 12.9%
CHERYL KINSMAN 3,724 12.4%
JUDIE MANCUSO 2,537 8.5%
* ROBERT “ROB” ZUR SCHMIEDE 2,040 6.8%
PAUL MERRITT 1,869 6.2%
LORENE LAGUNA 1,269 4.2%
SUE MARIE CONNOLLY 606 2.0%
ALLISON T. MATHEWS 484 1.6%
ELIZABETH “LIZ” BATES 467 1.6%
JORG DUBIN (W) 233 0.8%

No votes counted today.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 11 of 11
Vote Count Percentage
* CAROL MOORE 5,298 35.2%
* JOE RAINEY 4,907 32.6%
JUDITH P. TROUTMAN 4,831 32.1%

Very few votes counted .. but the race for the second seat does tighten from a margin of 81 votes to 76.

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 3
Completed Precincts: 76 of 76
Vote Count Percentage
TIM STOAKS 16,987 50.5%
* MARSHALL “DUFFY” DUFFIELD 16,676 49.5%

Prior margin was 320.  Stoaks gained 19, Duffy gained 28.  It looks like a long road to picking up 311.

Very few new votes counted.  James remains within striking distance of Ward — but that’s not the way to bet.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 26,667 50.9%
SAL TINAJERO 25,763 49.1%
CITY OF SANTA ANA Mayor
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
* MIGUEL A. PULIDO 27,142 50.8%
SAL TINAJERO 26,319 49.2%

This one got some ballots processed today.  Yesterday’s margin of 904 was cut to 823.  Pulido picked up 475, Tinajero 556.  I’m going to repeat what I said yesterday:

This is another one where I strongly suspect, without having sought or received evidence to back up my opinion, that Pulido’s people have been challenging provisional ballots from areas (and possibly ethnicities) that they believe will be more likely to support Tinajero.  If so, then the likelihood is good that Tinajero will eventually win — but his mayoral term will have a difficult birth.  … Definitely not over until the last provisional is counted.

I don’t think that we’ll get much warning before the trickle of ballots — including all eligible provisionals — stops.  Every day it goes on is probably going to be a good one for Tinajero.

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 6
Completed Precincts: 78 of 78
Vote Count Percentage
CECILIA “CECI” IGLESIAS 20,113 39.1%
NELIDA MENDOZA 17,512 34.0%
MIRNA VELASQUEZ 13,879 26.9%

Why, Mirna Velasquez, why?

CITY OF VILLA PARK Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 6 of 6
Vote Count Percentage
CRYSTAL K. MILES 2,110 29.5%
CHAD ZIMMERMAN 2,002 28.0%
* ROBERT COLLACOTT 1,627 22.8%
* DIANA C. FASCENELLI 1,409 19.7%

Nmanyballots counted — but Collacott’s lead over Fascenelli expands slightly.  Hard to see how it reverses.

CITY OF WESTMINSTER Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 34 of 34
Vote Count Percentage
TAI DO 7,637 17.0%
CHI CHARLIE NGUYEN 7,450 16.6%
JAMISON POWER 6,498 14.4%
AMY WEST 5,462 12.1%
ANITA A. RICE 5,402 12.0%
FRANCES THE-THUY NGUYEN 3,784 8.4%
ANDY QUACH 2,185 4.9%
MARK LAWRENCE 2,018 4.5%
SAMANTHA BAO ANH NGUYEN 2,007 4.5%
KHAI DAO 1,333 3.0%
JASON GRAY 571 1.3%
RANDY YOUNG 415 0.9%
VISUAL WILLIAM 228 0.5%

Chi Charlie’s lead over Power drops very slightly — and it’s hard to see how Power picks up 1,000 votes.  But this is Janet Nguyen’s territory, so illegitimate challenges to provisionals are conceivable.  Otherwise, I’d call it.

CAPISTRANO BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 1 of 1
Vote Count Percentage
* MIKE HAACK 47 25.8%
ARDESHIR IRANI 38 20.9%
PATRICK MC NULTY 28 15.4%
CHARLOTTE M. BLOOM 24 13.2%
ROBERT H. BANCROFT 23 12.6%
* KURTIS BREEDING 22 12.1%

Minimal movement — and none related to the race in for the third seat.

MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 41 of 41
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW NGUYEN 13,383 23.5%
SERGIO CONTRERAS 13,054 22.9%
* MARGIE L. RICE 12,905 22.6%
* FRANK COBO 11,073 19.4%
ANDY QUACH

Cobo falls another couple dozen behind Margie Rice.

IRVINE RANCH WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 246 of 246
Vote Count Percentage
* DOUG REINHART 62,013 26.0%
* STEVE LAMAR 60,381 25.4%
* PEER A. SWAN 51,235 21.5%
ANDREW R. POLLARD 48,911 20.5%
RICHARD A. VANZINI 15,606 6.6%

In the race for the third seat, Peer Swan had led by 2,352; now it’s 2,324.  Swan added 145, Pollard 173.  So Pollard’s gaining 28 on the margin burned up a lot of ballots.

EL TORO WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
* KATHRYN FRESHLEY 11,247 39.1%
MIKE GASKINS 9,064 31.5%
* FREDERICK J. ADJARIAN 8,466 29.4%

Gaskins’s lead widens by 9.

MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 86 of 86
Vote Count Percentage
KELLY JENNINGS 29,463 24.0%
* DONALD R. FROELICH 27,878 22.7%
WILLIAM “BILL” MOORHEAD 23,392 19.1%
KEN MADDOX 21,955 17.9%
JOEL BISHOP 10,635 8.7%
SHERRY WANNINGER 9,269 7.6%

Moorhead’s lead over Maddox expands from 1,428 to 1437.  Used up a few ballots to get there, too.

L-City of Anaheim, Initiative Ordinance to Increase Minimum Wage
Completed Precincts: 129 of 129
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 42,684 53.6%
No 36,893 46.4%

The YES side gained 2,882 votes.  The NO side gained 1,583 votes.  That’s 4465 voters — 139 more than were added to the Mayor’s race.  (Hrrmmm?  Do they come in on different days?)  The margin went from 4,492 to 5791.  So that tells you what kinds of votes are coming in: good news for Ashleigh Aitken.

WHAT’S LEFT TO COUNT?

Total Ballots Left to Count

Total estimated number of ballots to count (after Election Day): 476,011Total estimated number of ballots counted (after Election Day): 398,994

Total Estimated Left to Count: 77,017

Vote-by-Mail Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 120800Total vote-by-mail ballots counted: 120,675

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 125

Provisionals Left to Count

Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 130000Total provisionals counted: 58,425

Total estimated number of provisionals left to count: 71,575

Vote-by-Mail Returned at Polling Places Left to Count

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 187,800

Total vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls counted: 187,526

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls left to count: 274

Election Day Paper Left to Count

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots to count: 13200Total election day paper ballots counted: 11,696

Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 1,504

Eligible Vote-by-Mail Ballots received after Election Day Left to Count

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots received after Election Day left to count: 20,947

Total eligible vote-by-mail ballots counted: 20,672

Total estimated number of eligible vote-by-mail ballots left to count: 275

Conditional Voter Registrations Left to Count

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations to count: 3,264

Total eligible Conditional Voter Registrations counted: 0

Total estimated number of Conditional Voter Registrations left to count: 3,264


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose worker's rights and government accountability attorney, residing in northwest Brea. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Occasionally runs for office to challenge some nasty incumbent who would otherwise run unopposed. (Someday he might pick a fight with the intent to win rather than just dent someone. You'll know it when you see it.) He got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012 and in 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. A family member co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)