UPDATE: See comments for daily-ish updates on vote totals.
This is no more definitive than the many days in which Hans Keirstead has been in second place have been definitive, but: Harley Rouda has now passed Keirstead for second place in the Race against Dana Rohrabacher. Both are comfortably ahead of the flagging second Republican candidate, Scott Baugh. Baugh would presumably rather have to defeat a Democratic incumbent in 2020 than to have to face either Rohrabacher or his likely hand-picked endorsed replacement, Michelle Steel. (Baugh will also presumably not admit it.)
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If this trend holds, as we continue into the later absentee ballots, paper ballots, and provisionals that tend to swing more liberal in the latter fays of the count, it would mean that the CDP/DPOC endorsed candidate will have lost in both of its top races: CA-48 and CA-45. The DCCC gave its de facto endorsement to both Rouda and to Gil Cisneros in CA-39, marking two of its few notable successes this year.
Realistically, though, if the margin remains in the double digits in either direction, we should expect a recount. This is usually seen as a bad thing for candidates, behind one of whom the parts will want its supporters to coalesce, it’s hard to see Democrats coalescing behind either candidate in this race. The counter-argument is that a recount may bring additional attention to the race — driving up voter interest. That’s one theory, at least.
Don’t worry, Keirstead fans: if there’s another reversal in this race, your guy will get his picture in the paper as well!
Oh, What the Hell — Let’s Put ‘Em ALL Up! 6/18!
All the results are below. Here are some combined-county races, which won’t have correct results if you look at only OC:
NEWMAN RECALL: With a gas-tax repeal on the November ballot — which presumably calls for undoing all of the road and bridge repair already underway — the size of the Newman recall matters. While we don’t really know how those uncounted LA County votes may affect things, we do know that across the three counties Josh Newman is down almost 34,000 votes out of 135,000 cast. At best, that would be extremely hard to overcome. But who really knows what’s out there?
4th District BOE race: our guy David Dodson still has a shot! Here’s where things stood this morning:
Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
David Dodson
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
222,122 |
15.0%
|
|
Ken Lopez-Maddox
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
210,601 |
14.2%
|
|
Mike Schaefer
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
250,762 |
16.9%
|
|
Joel Anderson
(Party Preference: REP)
|
471,000 |
31.7%
|
|
John F. Kelly
(Party Preference: REP)
|
245,131 |
16.5%
|
|
Nader F. Shahatit
(Party Preference: REP)
|
29,773 |
2.0%
|
|
Jim Stieringer
(Party Preference: REP)
|
54,196 |
3.7%
|
Joel Anderson is a lock for the runoff, but David Dodson could still leapfrog Democrat Mike Schaefer and Republican John F. Kelly to make it — and he likely would have done at least the latter without Ken “Sudden Mexican Syndrome” Maddox-Lopez in the race
CA-39, Combined County Results:
Don’t look now, but in late balloting Gil Cisneros is rapidly closing the gap on Young Kim — and may pass her. He’s now less than 3,000 votes and 2.5% behind her — in the PRIMARY, where Democrats in these parts generally trail. Aggregate Dem vote = 44.7%; aggregate GOP aggrragate = 54.7%. Do you know what we call a Democrat in north OC who’s behind by 10% in the primary? “The presumptive favorite.”
Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Gil Cisneros
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
25,291 |
19.3%
|
|
Sam Jammal
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
7,025 |
5.4%
|
|
Herbert H. Lee
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
5,456 |
4.2%
|
|
Suzi Park Leggett
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
1,857 |
1.4%
|
|
Andy Thorburn
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
12,046 |
9.2%
|
|
Mai Khanh Tran
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
6,793 |
5.2%
|
|
John J. Cullum
(Party Preference: REP)
|
1,582 |
1.2%
|
|
Bob Huff
(Party Preference: REP)
|
8,066 |
6.2%
|
|
Young Kim
(Party Preference: REP)
|
28,216 |
21.5%
|
|
Phil Liberatore
(Party Preference: REP)
|
18,670 |
14.3%
|
|
Shawn Nelson
(Party Preference: REP)
|
9,166 |
7.0%
|
|
Andrew Sarega
(Party Preference: REP)
|
749 |
0.6%
|
|
Steven C. Vargas
(Party Preference: REP)
|
3,778 |
2.9%
|
|
Ted M. Alemayhu
(Party Preference: AI)
|
157 |
0.1%
|
|
Sophia J. Alexander
(Party Preference: AI)
|
478 |
0.4%
|
|
Steve Cox
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
766 |
0.6%
|
|
Karen Lee Schatzle
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
851 |
0.6%
|
We’re not covering AD-55 much, even though it’s tri-county. Phillip Chen is 25% above Gregg Fritchle; Melissa Fazli’s Dem votes almost exactly offset by Republicans’ votes. Volunteers: Sharon Quirk-Silva just down south in CA-65 needs you! If you were looking for a race hereabouts where Democratic contributions may make a difference, you may want to check out Josh Lowenthal in AD-72 or Scott Rhinehart in AD-73 or Cottie Petrie-Norris in AD-74. Each has a legitimate shot. Even Michelle Duman, with whom I pleaded to step away from the AD-65 race in favor of NPP Karen Schatzle, who could have whipped Steven Choi, is less than 19% behind.
Combined County CA-47:
Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
* | Alan Lowenthal
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
61,823 |
59.9%
|
John Briscoe
(Party Preference: REP)
|
22,733 |
22.0%
|
|
David Michael Clifford
(Party Preference: REP)
|
18,675 |
18.1%
|
So don’t freak out at the 49.7% in the OC Vote table below; Uncle Al is doing fine.
Combined results in CA-49
You might look at the combined vote for Democrats in this district and say “Wow! The total Democratic vote is 50.8%!” And if any of the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th-place Democrats are in the race against Diane Harkey, you’d be right to think that the Dems would be favored. And while it’s still possible that Sara Jacobs might sneak past Mike Levin and make the runoff, Levin is ahead by about 1.8%, or 3,000 votes. So he’ll likely make the runoff — and I don’t think that the other Dems will lift a finger for him, because he’s just that much of an asshole. (Challenge me, please: I’ll review his campaign materials here.) Sara Jacobs would have a good chance to beat Levin in the primary and take out an incumbent Harkey in 2020. The two Frans will beat the drums for Levin like no tomorrow, but I fear that has crossed a line where Democrats will say “yes, we want to take back the House — but not with that thing.” Don’t blame me — I didn’t craft his attacks on Jacobs and Applegate!
Anyway, we’ll keep you up on the Levin-Jacobs run to the finish line. Maybe we can still avoid that unpleasantness.
Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Doug Applegate
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
22,706 |
13.1%
|
|
Sara Jacobs
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
27,154 |
15.7%
|
|
Paul G. Kerr
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
7,707 |
4.5%
|
|
Mike Levin
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
30,291 |
17.5%
|
|
Rocky J. Chávez
(Party Preference: REP)
|
13,053 |
7.6%
|
|
Kristin Gaspar
(Party Preference: REP)
|
14,606 |
8.5%
|
|
Diane L. Harkey
(Party Preference: REP)
|
44,415 |
25.7%
|
|
Brian Maryott
(Party Preference: REP)
|
5,133 |
3.0%
|
|
David Medway
(Party Preference: REP)
|
977 |
0.6%
|
|
Craig A. Nordal
(Party Preference: REP)
|
1,073 |
0.6%
|
|
Mike Schmitt
(Party Preference: REP)
|
2,122 |
1.2%
|
|
Joshua Schoonover
(Party Preference: REP)
|
1,254 |
0.7%
|
|
Danielle St. John
(Party Preference: GRN)
|
636 |
0.4%
|
|
Joshua L. Hancock
(Party Preference: LIB)
|
511 |
0.3%
|
|
Jordan P. Mills
(Party Preference: P&F)
|
212 |
0.1%
|
|
Robert Pendleton
(Party Preference: NPP)
|
846 |
0.5%
|
Combined County SD-34
Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Marggie Castellano
(Party Preference: DEM)
|
99,321 |
45.6%
|
|
* | Patricia C. ‘Pat’ Bates
(Party Preference: REP)
|
118,256 |
54.4%
|
If Mike Levin does make the runoff and win, it will likely be on the backs of Marggie Castellano and Scott Rhinehart, who will bring out volunteers who will carry his papers as the price of having to carry theirs.
OTHER CLOSE OC RACES:
OK — what other OC races are still close enough to follow?
CA-45, Porter vs. Min? Sure, it’s only 2.3%; we’ll keep watching it.
AD-65, Quirk-Silva vs. Coronado? Sharon’s only up by 5%, and will do better in the primary — but we’ll watch it.
AD-72, Lowenthal vs. Diep? We’ll definitely watch it — and we’ll talk to Greg Haskin, the guy whom the OCGOP CENSURED to protect the most corrupt Viet around (while ignoring one of the most honest, Long Pham) A WHOLE LOT about this race, which — but for that censure — it appears that Haskin might have won!
AD-73, Brough vs. Rhinehart? Sure, we’ll watch it — and we may even ask some candidates from a cycle or two back about what they think about what was thought to be the “safe choice” to lead the Republicans in this district?
OCBOE District 2? We’ll see if David Boyd can somehow come back to beat Mari Burke in this “no runoff” race:
Vote Count | Percentage | |
MARI BARKE | 45,919 | 40.2% |
* DAVID L. BOYD | 39,629 | 34.7% |
MATT NGUYEN | 28,762 | 25.2% |
Board of Supes 4:
This is probably the most consequential outstanding result, with any of the top three candidates still in the running, as late ballots tend to skew towards the left.
Vote Count | Percentage | |
TIM SHAW | 17,324 | 21.0% |
DOUG CHAFFEE | 16,957 | 20.6% |
JOE KERR | 16,585 | 20.1% |
LUCILLE KRING | 14,420 | 17.5% |
ROSE ESPINOZA | 9,396 | 11.4% |
CYNTHIA AGUIRRE | 7,708 | 9.4% |
The District Attorney race isn’t “close” in the sense meant elsewhere, in that we already know who will be in the runoff, but Rackauckas leads Spitzer in the primary by a very low margin — even lower than the minuscule number of votes won by Lenore Albert — and Brett Murdock is suddenly the guy who can direct Democrats in whatever direction he chooses. I’d love to see it tied in the primary, to be honest.
The Sheriff’s race will be the only other county-wide race on the ballot IF Duke Nguyen can hold Barnes to under 50%. I’m really hoping he does so I can follow Lou Correa around with a “Why won’t Correa endorse Duke Nguyen?” sign, which I hope will make for some good photos. (See, Nguyen is a Democrat, and Correa’s genetic makeup causes him to present as a Democrat.)
STATEWIDE RACES?
Is there anything still worth watching statewide? Sure!
Lt. Gov.: My candidate Eleni Kounalakis is the leader in this race. Correa-like Dem State Sen. Ed Hernandez of north of Josh Newman’s district) is leading Republican Cole Harris for the second spot. I’d just as soon Harris got the second spot to cement the race for the more trustworthy Democratic candidate.
Treasurer: Republicans Greg Conlon and Jack Guerrero are nearly tied and far behind Fiona Ma.
U.S. Senator: It’s possible that James Bradley could still overtake Kevin De Leon for the spot in the runoff against Dianne Feinstein — but you should be prepared to wager a significant body organ that it won’t happen it’s highly unlikely.
OK, HERE ARE TODAY’S OC-ONLY NUMBERS!
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*Whoa, lots of back door deals going on….as we speak. Looks like Harley made a bigger and better deal than Hans could come up with. Posturing and bargaining seems to be the order of the day! Whew! This whole election cycle seems very strange compared to prior races.
Pretty sure this is just opening delivered mail, not writing new letters.
Why did Applegate do so poorly?
Is he not what we thought? Negative attacks or a weaker than anticipated turnout by the progressive left?
I know you don’t like him, but Mike Levin fits well here, I hope he gets some juice behind him, he’ll be tough to beat.
Col. Applegate should look back and figure out what went wrong.
*The answer is fairly simple. Applegate was lazy and a non politician. He couldn’t believe how good he did against Issa the last time. The big money folks gave him the traditional call and he backed down big time. No fund raising, no answering e-mails, no major Press Conferences, No major Fund mentors, No campaign! We sadly wasted our vote and voted for him….hoping upon hope he was really going to try. He didn’t. His political career is over. He will make cash, which is evidently his concern and live happily ever after.
Viciously inappropriate attach ads and both parties firmly arrayed against him, are what I’d expect.
I can think of one juice he won’t get behind him.
“Do you know what we call a Democrat in north OC who’s behind by 10% in the primary? “The presumptive favorite.”
Really? My presumption is only that a vast amount of work awaits for the next few months to make that a reality, and keep it so. Gil’s a good man making what looks like a bunch of good moves since coming up 2nd in the primary, but I have no idea what it will take to move folks to the polls and will put in a lot of hours to ensure that it happens. Hope some Dems from here come along for the ride…this’ll be fun.
Democrats in these races tend to do about 10 points better in November than they do in June. I’m not saying that Gil is going to win; I’m saying that, based on these primary results, his odds are slightly better than Kim’s. (Of course, a trillion dollars or so may be spent on this race, so the general rules may not apply.)
Here is what CA-48 looks like right now. The changes between Rouda and Keirstead are small, but steady.
Yesterday it was:
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM) 29,575 17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM) 29,535 17.2%
Today it is:
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM) 29,873 17.3% +298
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM) 29,804 17.2% +231
It’s only a 67-vote gain, but it’s been steadily moving in the same direction. Keirstead’s hopes is that there’s a big cache of votes in an area where he leads — but so far as I can tell the differences between the two of them are not particularly regional. It’s more a question of which one’s sails will be better filled by the late shifts in the prevailing winds — which tend to blow liberal.
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
Completed Precincts: 415 of 415
Vote Count Percentage
* DANA ROHRABACHER (REP) 52,520 30.3%
HARLEY ROUDA (DEM) 29,873 17.3%
HANS KEIRSTEAD (DEM) 29,804 17.2%
SCOTT BAUGH (REP) 27,412 15.8%
OMAR A. SIDDIQUI (DEM) 8,601 5.0%
*The jockeying back and forth is a goof. One guy gets the call one day, the other guy gets the call the next. Our belief is that whoever faces Dana and Rhonda in
November is going to win. The insider trades going on right now would make for
a wonderful novel about elections. Maybe the loser will have enough bravery to do the job and let people really know how elections work.
Actually, Ron, this is NOT a “back-and-forth” race, which is pretty much the point. Rouda had been slowly rising, finally passed Keirstead, and is still slowly rising. It’s the stability of the change over time that made me decide to post a story about it.
By the way: this is now the sole undecided legislative primary race in the state. We are, as ever, so so lucky.
*what the hell is this “call” you guys are always talking about?
*Chairman Vern, please get with the program. We have “Smoke filled Rooms” to this day. The “power behind the throne” concept. People don’t just get elected….they are chosen based on their ability to help the “power brokers” in our society. The “Power Brokers” are represented by various
privileged individuals who “make the call” to the “Maybe be elected” person in order to get various “quid pro quos”. Our phone call for example was to suggest that our campaign debt could easily be retired with just one fund
raiser. Obviously, you need to get elected to something….so you can “get the call”! Our bet is that the election would be close enough to manipulate
to whatever outcome “they” would want. You know “They” right?
It’s actually spelled “cowl.” You can figure out the rest for yourself, Boy Wonder.
[Dear “G=BJ”: Unless Vern comes back and reverses this, you don’t get to post pseudonymously here ahd use words like “Vladiqueer.” As an anonymous commenter, you don’t get to engage in vicious attacks; it tends to ruin the environment. Here I’m not so much concerned about Putin as about LGBT smears. So either Vern will take down this note soon or I’ll remove the rest of your post. – GAD
P.S., I’ve just taken down some (not all) of your other posts altogether. Vern can reinstate them if he wishes.
We just normally don’t attack people here by calling them sexist, racist, or homophobic terms — it stinks the place up. So try to avoid terms like “bitch,” “pussy,” “whore,” etc. when you post here. Some people can use them in ways that aren’t over the top; if you’re able to do so you have not not demonstrated it. Even when you’re anonymous here, post like your name is attached.]
____________ Putin’s puppet Dana Whorebacher is a political dead man walking. In Nov., Rep. Whorebacher is going to cry like a little treasonous Russian _____!