Polls show Cisneros, Applegate, best chances for Dems to take CA-39 and 49.


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So, for those of you North County voters who’d been waiting for a reliable poll to help you decide the wisest way to vote in the 39th Congressional district, the Tulchin Research group has released one of 500 likely primary voters, showing Democrat Gil Cisneros leading decisively, with Republicans Young Kim and Bob Huff battling it out for second place, and Democrat Andy Thorburn hanging on at fourth:

Thoughts:  This shows the Republicans know what they were doing when they focus attacks on Gil;  and also it doesn’t seem like those attacks had much impact, unless he was originally even higher.

Some progressives see this as a chance to try and push Andy up past 14% and get an unexpected Dem-on-Dem general, how great would that be?  I wonder what sort of voters those “undecideds” are.

I’m glad to see that Shawn‘s sanctuary-bashing didn’t help him.  The voters who were obsessed with keeping Mexicans out of the country probably went with the TRUE hater, Arpaio’s favorite Phil Liberatore (who was not included in this poll.)

It’s too bad about Jammal, but apparently you need lots of your own money to compete as a Democrat in these races.  Sam or Jay Chen would have been the best Congressmen, if all things were equal in the election.  But even now, they could probably help make a D-on-D general possible, if (Sam dropped out and) they both endorsed Andy.

And then, down in South County…

Progressive firebrand Colonel Douglas Applegate continues to poll consistently as the Democratic frontrunner, and often the frontrunner period, such as in these two FM3 Research polls from February and late April:

Both Doug and Rocky took a lot of attacks during that period (and since) – Rocky from his own Republican establishment for being insufficiently right-wing, Doug mainly by his Dem opponent Mike Levin (and Levin’s even-worse supporters like Dan Chmielewski) with the same usual bullshit exaggerations about his marriage. 

But it doesn’t seem like the constant attacks against Doug HELPED Mike at all.  It is Sara Jacobs, whom nobody seems to dislike, and doesn’t campaign negatively but is spending millions of dollars, who is gaining ground.  And Mike, who had seemed formidable up here in the OC where all his corporatist supporters are, has been stuck in 3rd to 5th place consistently.  Maybe he should think of AT LEAST stopping his attacks on the Colonel, if he’s too stubborn and proud to bow out.

It’s sad to see nice-guy moderate Republican Chavez overtaken by the financial crook and immigrant basher Diane Harkey, who has the endorsement of slimy retiring incumbent Darrell Issa and the support of both County Parties.

In short though, this is not like CA-39 where we Democrats can hold out a hope of shutting out the Republicans (by for example rushing to support Sara) – Democrats must coalesce around the frontrunner, Colonel Applegate, who’s most likely to be facing horrible Harkey.  And at that point CA-49 will be hearing a lot from this writer.

In closing, listen to Doug’s kids:


About Vern Nelson

Greatest pianist in Orange County, and official troubador of both Anaheim and Huntington Beach (the two ends of the Santa Ana Aquifer.) Performs regularly both solo, and with his savage-jazz quintet The Vern Nelson Problem. Reach at vernpnelson@gmail.com, or 714-235-VERN.