Dem Pre-Endorsement Caucus Delegates, Compare Notes & Votes Here!


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If you’re a Democratic State Central Committee delegate, you can publicly register notice of your intended vote here, so that delegates considering voting for someone who look like they don’t have a prayer of winning may coalesce among the more viable candidates and help to winnow out the field.

(Hey, at least it’s
a workable theory — and anyway nothing else has worked!)

  1. PREFACE

[NOTE: If you’re a Democratic State Central Committee delegate and just want to enter your preferences, skip down to the number of your Regional Pre-Endorsement Caucus and then enter your intended votes in comments.  Remember, these votes will be public anyway — we’ll all be able to look them up and I’ll be able to publish them here, but many (like mine) will have been mailed or emailed in ahead of time.

So your only chance to help winnow the field down to a reasonable 2 or 3 candidates — enough to pretty much ensure that at least one Democrat makes the Top 2 and can participate in the general election — is to post your own TOP, or failing that TOP 2, or AT MOST your top 3 choices here.  (If another website wants to do the same, great.  We’ll combine all credible information.) 

Every other attempt to winnow down the candidate fields has failed!  This attempt may fail too — a candidate may still think that their funding or experience or charm or endorsements or policy positions mean that it’s worth their risking a total car wreck from which no Dems survive June rather than bowing out of the race before damage has been done — but at least we’ll have tried.

Again, if you’re a delegate in a hurry, skip the next few paragraphs — but if you can already commit to a vote, please do so while you can still influence others’ votes and prevent the DEMOPOCALYPSE!  My own first (and final! — those are the rules!) vote will be sent in on Thursday, and may well be determined by whether the results of YOUR CHOICES suggest that MY preferred candidates are viable!

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2. BACKGROUND

Orange County is supposed to be the Center of the Political Universe this year when it comes to determining whether Democrats capture the House of Representatives.  The potential for humiliation is therefore huge.

Right now, it looks plausible that NO NON-INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE JUNE PRIMARY IN ANY OF THE FOUR CONTESTED DISTRICTS!   The problem is a failure to “winnow the field” prior to filing for office, which begins on Feb. 12 and ends on March 9.   (Expect most candidates to file on the first day, if they can, which is the equivalent of taking your hand off the steering wheel while driving straight at another car while playing a game of “chicken.”)

MY BEST CURRENT PREDICTIONS of who will end up in the Top 2 General Election Runoff in November for each of OC’s four competitive GOP-held Congressional Districts WITHOUT WINNOWING are these:

CA-39 [Royce]: two of  Republicans Shawn Nelson, Bob Huff, and Young Kim (against 6 easily viable Dems plus some others)

CA-45 [Walters]: Republicans Mimi Walters vs. Greg Raths (against 7 Dems, 5 of whom are quite viable)

CA-48 [Dana R.]: Republicans Dana Rohrabacher vs. Stelian Onufrei (against 8 Dems, 5-6 of whom are viable, but the others will take votes)

CA-49 [Issa]: Republicans Diane Harkey vs. Rocky Chavez (versus 3 highly viable Dems + one more who will take some votes)

(Like the way that looks, Democratic Congressional candidates?)

Each district is winnable for Dems, but even if they’re about 52-48 blue, then two Republicans with 24% of the vote each will easily beat three Dems with about 17% each.

THAT is our stupid primary system!  But people won’t understand that outside of the state — all they will understand is DONALD TRUMP TWEETING THAT REPUBLICANS SHUT OUT DEMOCRATS IN FOUR OF THE TOP DEMOCRATIC PARTY TARGETED RACE.

THOSE ARE THE STAKES!  AFFECTING THE UNDERSTANDING OF TRUMP’S POPULARITY NATIONALLY AND THROUGH NOVEMBER (AND BEYOND).

A WORD TO CANDIDATES: But it’s still worth “playing chicken” over stubbornly refusing to drop out, right?  Well WE WILL HAVE VOTE TOTALS in June and THE WHOLE COUNTRY WILL KNOW WHO TO BLAME FOR OC’s DEMOPOCALYSE!!

(Are you comfortable with the culprit being you?)

A WORD TO DSCC DELEGATES: For by far most of you, this isn’t your fault.  It’s an insane system with a (deservedly) weak state party and a local party that has squandered its credibility by trying to squeeze Democrats like Josh Newman and Farrah Khan out of previous races — in my opinion based upon who is and isn’t “a member of the (anti-leftist) club.”

ALL YOU HAVE TO DO to help avoid the OC Demopocalypse is to say NOW, while it’s early enough to form a consensus, who you favor in the primary.  If someone gets over 50%, then the smarter among the other candidates — all of whom have been calling you to get your vote! — stand a chance of dropping out, especially when we finally have an objective basis to demand that they do so…

… BUT IT WILL NOT HAPPEN AT NEXT WEEKEND’S MEETING!  Most votes will either be emailed in by Thursday morning or emailed in by Friday evening.  If you want to work towards a cruel-but-fair consensus, you have to ACT PRETTY MUCH NOW!  The best plan I have to offer is for you to POST YOUR INTENDED VOTES (or at least post your 2-3 finalists) FOR CONGRESS below.

3. HERE ARE YOUR CHOICES

Bold Text indicates a candidate has filed with the CDP
Italic Text indicates a candidate is a potential candidate
An * next to a candidate’s name indicates incumbent status

Region 15 Pre-Endorsement Conference

Assembly Districts

AD 55

Gregg Fritchle*

(NOTE: FRITCHLE WILL BOW OUT TO ANY REASONABLE CANDIDATE.  IF YOU LIVE (OR ARE PRETENDING TO LIVE) IN DISTRICT 55, WHICH INCLUDES YORBA LINDA, YOU CAN RUN HERE AND WIN!)

Other

Senate Districts

None are up

Congressional Districts


CD 38

Linda Sanchez* 

Other

CD 39

Jay Chen

Gil Cisneros

Andy Thorburn

Sam Jammal

Phil Janowicz 

Mai-Khanh Tran 

Cybil Steed

Other probable candidates not signed up for CDP endorsement include as of the morning of 1/22 include: Ted Rusk, Suzi Park Leggett, and Herbert Lee

Other

Region 17 Pre-Endorsement Conference

State Senate

SD 34

Gerrie Schipske

Other

[Note: Jestin Samson is also running, and would presumably want a “no endorsement” vote.]

Assembly Districts

AD 65

Sharon Quirk-Silva*

Other

AD 68

Michelle Duman 

Other

 AD 69 

Tom Daly*

Ana Martinez

Other

AD 72

Josh Lowenthal 

Other

CD 46

Lou Correa

Other

Region 18 Pre-Endorsement Conference

Assembly Districts

AD 73

Scott Rhinehart 

Other

AD 74

Catherine “Cottie” Petrie-Norris  

Other

Senate Districts

SD 36

Marggie Castellano 

Other

Congressional District

CD 45

Brian Forde

Dave Min

Katie Porter

Kia Hamadanchy

Other probable candidates not signed up for CDP endorsement include as of the morning of 1/22 include: Ron Varasteh, Greg Ramsay, and Eric Rywalski 

Other

 CD 48

Hans Keirstead

Michael Kotick

Laura Oatman

Rachel Payne

Boyd Roberts

Harley Rouda

Omar Siddiqui

Tony Zardakes

 

CD 49

Doug Applegate

Sara Jacobs

Paul Kerr 

Mike Levin 

Christina Prejean

Other probable candidates not signed up for CDP endorsement include as of the morning of 1/22 include:  none

IF YOU ARE A DELEGATE, leave your Congressional District and your top 1, 2, or 3 preferences (ranked or not) in a comment from your real email address — and I can check, and may contact you to confirm! — below.

Any spoofing of email addresses will be investigated and reported both to the CDP and FPPC, insofar as is possible.  NO PRIVATE INFORMATION WILL BE SHARED WITH ANY CAMPAIGN other than what is published here.

Note to NON-DEMS — we’re usually very tolerant in keeping comments from all but the most repugnant sinkholes.  But, this is not the place for you to mess up our straw poll.  If you want to have your own straw pre-endorsement poll here, let us know and give us the text.  If we know that you’re just messing around, your comments will — at best — be transported to our Weekly Open Thread.  At best!


About Greg Diamond

Somewhat verbose worker's rights and government accountability attorney, residing in northwest Brea. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Occasionally runs for office to challenge some nasty incumbent who would otherwise run unopposed. (Someday he might pick a fight with the intent to win rather than just dent someone. You'll know it when you see it.) He got 45% of the vote against Bob Huff for State Senate in 2012 and in 2014 became the first attorney to challenge OCDA Tony Rackauckas since 2002. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level, nor do they now. A family member co-owns a business offering campaign treasurer services to Democratic candidates and the odd independent. He is very proud of her. He doesn't directly profit from her work and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he truly hated.) He does advise some local campaigns informally and (so far) without compensation. (If that last bit changes, he will declare the interest.)