Let the Games begin!
As soon as a recount in the Measure J race became a serious prospect — which was weeks ago by now — I was looking forward to being able to change from the “Blue Jay” theme I’d been using — and you might want to open that link in a new tab now, because you’re likely to be using it — to the “Mockingjay” theme you see here. But something was always missing — and it wasn’t until today that I realized what it was: the visage of Tony Bushala as the protagonist in the anti-government drama. Today we finally learned, as Bushala’s close friend and political confidante David Zenger had been hinting here in comments for some time, that a wealthy property owner in the area would be putting up the money for a recount in both LA and Orange Counties. (Presumably Orange County; wisely, it will start in LA, but the odds of making up the deficit there alone, mooting the need to move to OC, seem remote.)
Let’s get one thing straight — and this is especially important to know if you’re name is Sarah Tully and you are covering this story for the Orange County Register — Measure J does not lead by only 15 votes. Please stop saying that, Ms. Tully, you’re killing me. Click that link and check your math. If the goal is to eliminate enough absentees or provisional ballots that the Yes side falls below 55%, Bushala’s team will have to eliminate 34 Yes votes. And yes, this matters: if we’re talking about errors statistically distributed on a normal distribution here, a net gain of 34 votes is way more than twice as hard to reach than 15. (Think of it in terms of coin flips.)
Starting in LA alone only makes sense if Bushala is either willing to drop the effort there if nothing much moves in LA, which is unlikely. Seriously, is the idea that if he gains 1 vote in this 1/40 of the district, he goes on because he can expect to gain 39 more in OC, but if he gains 0 votes then he doesn’t? If he loses 1 vote in LA, does he give up? I suppose that it’s a blessing for NOCCCD, though, as it gives them another day to consider their opposition strategy in OC.
Because the OC Registrar of Voters is pretty notorious (in a good way) for not committing errors, the only strategy that might lead to a change — at an obvious political and social cost — would be to selectively challenge ballots in precincts that are predominantly populated by racial and ethnic minorities or by students. And that would lead to some of the same “Equal Protection” issues that were starting to bubble up in the recount for the Controller’s race earlier this year — covered in excruciating depth in these pages — involving John Perez and Betty Yee.
If that happens, I will certainly call on the Democratic Party of OC to muster its legal help to intervene — and on the OCGOP, if it doesn’t want to be seen as trying to block Hispanic, Asian, or African American votes based on their presumed greater likelihood to support a school bond, to do the same. So this could be really, really interesting if it’s not done meticulously and fairly. I have no strong reason to think that it won’t be, and I will hope for the best from Messers Bushala and Zenger, who seem to see themselves as playing politics hard but fair. If the games are to be fair, then “may the odds be ever in your favor” to both sides, despite the fact that pronouncement of Effie Trinket’s makes no logical sense.
An update will come when I see a copy of how Bushala’s demand is phrased, if not sooner. Meanwhile, I have to consult with my daughters for a shipload of additional Hunger Games quotes.
UPDATE 12/10:
Here’s the “Recount Notice” in LA:
http://www.lavote.net/Documents/Election_Info/11042014_RECOUNT-MEASUREJ.pdf
Here’s the “Recount Schedule” in LA, along with the relevant rules:
http://www.lavote.net/Documents/Election_Info/11042014_RECOUNTSCHEDULE.pdf
In a comment, David Zenger seems to cast doubt on whether it went forward, but he can elaborate when and whether he wishes.
Ok, props for the graphic. That’s awesome sauce.
while I understand and appreciate your politically correct sensibilities, from a practical perspective it makes sense to target those minority voting areas since traditionally that is where a majority of the challenged and disqualified ballots are from
I had a conversation last night with Tim Whitacre, who is the person on the spot in Los Angeles County for Bushala today. While it wasn’t off the record, I’m inclined to treat it as such — but I do think that it’s fair for me to say something positive: which is that they are going to recount all of the provisionals without regard to where they are from.
Who, if anyone, NOCCCD has there representing their interests is unknown to me. If they have no one there who knows what they’re doing, then they’ve made their own bed, because Whitacre (who was present on behalf of Bruce Broadwater during his abortive recount) certainly does know what he’s doing.
tim is one of the best
I like him. I don’t agree with him about many local races (outside of Anaheim), but he seems like a real straight shooter, and I appreciate that.
I believe we will find that rumors of a recount were greatly exaggerated.
Well, you’d be well-placed to know, but I can’t figure out what you’re saying.
What happened today at the count in Norwalk?
…or not.
I can’t find any news, or information on the LA/OCVote sites, on the Measure J recount proceeding. Was it abandoned? Delayed? Classified?
Bushala!! I miss that guy. He’s been MIA since he bought the Fullerton political scene and then lost it all right back with Travis opening his big mouth. Has he opened a dispensary yet?
So sad, did fat boy run out of donuts?
Yeah but he solved the case of the missing doughnut holes.
Tony Bushala only wishes his blog was as successful as mine. Sure he recalled the Fullerton City Council and led the way on the Kelly Thomas case, but did he win an Orange County Press Club award?