[Update, 11/25]
Contrary to the hypothesis in the previous update, we were not done. Another 22 votes have trickled in — 15 of them Yes on Measure J and 7 of them No votes. As with that last batch, that is over 2/3 support when only 55% is needed, so unless LA has some huge “Damaged Ballot Reversal” like that which stopped Jay Humphry’s surge cold in Costa Mesa, the outcome remains determined. Is such a reversal possible, thought? Until they’re done done counting, the answer remains “yes.” But they say that they’re now down to their 1% canvass, so only a handful of votes might change in LA County, and those could change in either direction.
The new results from LA County are: 2029 Yes and 1918 No. That means that 15 Yes Votes and 7 No votes were added — that’s 68.18% of the new batch, much like the supposedly statistically shocking 63% and 64% that late updates to the OC figures brought (when, most likely, some provisional ballots got added to the mix.)
So our new totals are:
Bonds – Yes 82,751 + 2,029 = 84,780
Bonds – No 67,420 + 1,918 = 69,338
Total votes – 154,118
Or, in percentage terms:
Bonds – Yes 84,780 = 55.0097976875%
Bonds – No 69,338 = 44.9902023125%
The Register, by the way, misstates the margin as being 15 votes. If 15 votes were to switch from Yes to No, the measure would have 55.0000648853% of the vote — still enough to win; it would take switching 16 votes to pull the total below 55.000…%. But “how many votes switching would it take to reverse the result?” is not the right measure. If it were, we would say that Bao Nguyen won by 8 votes rather than by 15, because a switch of only 8 votes would have reversed the result.
The right way to do this, I believe, is to add up the number of votes by which the Yes vote exceeds the “exactly 55%” margin and add to that the number of votes by which the No vote trails the “exactly 45%” margin. This is essentially what we do in Garden Grove when we add together the 7.5 votes by which Bao exceeds the average — the 50% mark — between him and Broadwater with the 7.5 votes by which Broadwater trails that 50% threshold of the two-candidate count to get 15. (This matches the margin between the votes because we’re using a 50% threshold of the number of votes cast for those two candidates. The trick when it’s not a 50% margin is that we have to calculate the leader’s lead and the trailer’s deficit separately with respect to the number that each had to hit.)
So: 55% of 154,118 is 84764.9 votes. The “Yes” vote exceeds that threshold by 15.1 votes.
And: 45% of 154,118 is 69,353.1 votes. The “No” vote trails that threshold by 15.1 votes. They would still have lost if they hit exactly 45, though, so let’s add .01 to that.
Combine them, and Measure J wins by 30.21 votes. I believe that we would have to round up, though, and say that it wins by 31 votes. But I’m open the disagreement on that point.
In any event: it’s not “15 votes” unless you’re going to say that Bao won by 8 — which he did not. You have to count both the surplus and the deficit. Only Chris Nguyen and I may care about this, and I’m not even sure about him.
[Update, 11/22]
We may be done. It’s not clear whether Friday’s update is the final one, or what we’re supposed to read into the term “semi-final,” if it isn’t.
The new results from LA County are: 2014 Yes and 1911 No. That means that 41 Yes Votes and 20 No votes were added — that’s 67.21% of the new batch, much like the supposedly statistically shocking 63% and 64% that late updates to the OC figures brought (when, most likely, some provisional ballots got added to the mix.)
So our new totals are:
Bonds – Yes 82,751 + 2,014 = 84,765
Bonds – No 67,420 + 1,911 = 69,331
Total votes – 154,096
Or, in percentage terms:
Bonds – Yes 84,765 = 55.0079171426%
Bonds – No 69,331 = 44.9920828574%
How close is this, presuming that it’s over? We can ask and answer that question in at least three ways:
1) How many votes would have to switch from Yes to No for it to lose?
That would be 13. An 84,753 to 69,343 margin (12 votes switching) would be 55.0001297892%. An 84,752 to 69,344 margin (13 votes switching) would be 54.9994808431%.
2) How many Yes votes would have to be subtracted for it to lose?
You’d have to subtract 28 Yes votes. Subtracting 27 would leave a fraction of 84,738/154,069 = 55.0000324530%. Subtracting 28 would leave a fraction of 84,737/154,068 = 54.9997403744%.
3) How many No votes would have to be added for it to lose?
You’d have to add 23 No votes. Adding 22 would leave a fraction of 84,765/154,118 = 0.550000648853%. Adding 23 would leave a fraction of 84,765/154,119 = 54.9997080178%.
So, however you slice it, this race falls in between Costa Mesa’s 47-vote margin and Garden Grove’s 15-vote margin — a little closer to the latter. (The difficulty of figuring all of this out is a good argument for requiring only 50%+1 of the vote, because these calculations with a 55% margin are pretty nasty.) Maybe some people on the No side will be willing to gamble about 6 times as much as will be required for the Garden Grove recount to try to shoot it down, but I doubt it — and if they try it, I doubt that it will reverse the results.
[Update, 11/19]
Where did we leave off with Measure J, which needs 55% support — not rounded off, but meaning more than 54.9999999999…% — to pass? Let’s see: before those last 50 paper ballots, the score was this:
Bonds – Yes 82,733, 55.10316900001%
Bonds – No 67,409, 44.89683099999%
Add 18 yes votes and 11 no votes — 62.0689655172%, if anyone’s wondering — and we get this distribution of our 150,171 votes:
Bonds – Yes 82,751, 55.1045141872%
Bonds – No 67,420, 44.8954858128%
But that, of course, does not settle the issue. The issue will be settled in La Harbra Heights (and a couple of blocks to its west.) And that means that we’re waiting on the final returns from Los Angeles.
As faithful OJB readers know, the Los Angeles results from last weekend were this:
Bonds – Yes 1.946, 51.0627131986%
Bonds – No 1,865, 48.9372868013%
Which, combined with the previous OC total, was:
Bonds – Yes 82,733+1,946=84,679, 55.0031503121%
Bonds – No 67,409+1,865=69,274, 44.9968496879%
For some of us — me, Chris Nguyen, and probably at least several others — this sort of thing is exciting.
Well, I have good news for those few of us who care: LA updated its count yesterday! It’s now:
Bonds – Yes 1.973, 51.0627131986%
Bonds – No 1,891, 48.9372868013%
That’s an addition of 27 “Yes” votes and 26 “No” votes. In other words, 50.9433962264% to 49.0566037736%. That’s as close to the previous percentage as you can get with a mere handful of votes.
[Note: this next section has been corrected]
So, in real time as a type, I’m going to calculate the new percentage across the two counties:
Bonds – Yes 82,751 + 1,973 = 84,724
Bonds – No 67,420 + 1891 = 69,311
Total votes – 154,035
From which we calculate:
Bonds – Yes 84,724, 55.0030837147%
Bonds – No 69,311, 44.9969162853%
Measure J is still passing. And, if LA continues to come in at exactly 50% of the vote for Yes, it will continue to pass unless LA gets at least 96 more votes, at which point it would lose with 54.9999675601%. (Actually, I only presume that that would be a loss. Unless there’s a statute that specifies that you only go to seven or fewer significant digits past the decimal point, at least it loses in my courtroom.) If only 94 votes come in at a 50% approval rate, it wins with 55.0000324404%.
We’ll update this post as we become aware that new LA returns have come in — or stopped doing so.
* * * * *
Here’s an interesting question, though. The clock on the five days allotted to request a recount is ticking. (And remember, this is about a quarter of the county, so it’s going to be really expensive.) Let’s say that LA hasn’t finished counting before then. Do either proponents or opponents have to call for a recount proactively, just in case LA puts them on the losing end — or can they wait?
I think that they can wait. But if I had a lot riding on the answer, I’d be calling the ROV’s office pretty soon — if I hadn’t already.
* * * * *
As the question of how NOCCCD marketed the ballot measure has become a source of controversy here, I went to their page to find what they said there. Here’s their description of what it will do:
Measure J
The North Orange County Community College District Board of Trustees voted unanimously on July 22, 2014 to place Measure J – the Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Repair and Student/Veteran Job Training Measure – on the November 4, 2014 ballot.
If approved by voters in the fall, Measure J would provide Fullerton College, Cypress College and local continuing education programs with $574 million for significant upgrades to technical job training facilities, aging classrooms, and veteran amenities.
“This is about staying relevant well into the future,” NOCCCD Chancellor Dr. Ned Doffoney said. “Many of our campus classrooms and buildings were constructed 50-80 years ago. As a result, students are learning science and other technical, in-demand disciplines with greatly outdated labs and technology. To keep high-paying jobs in our area and attract more high-tech jobs, we need facilities that have the capacity to keep up with the educational and job-training demands of our times.”
Key Measure J investment priorities include:
- Upgrades to antiquated science labs, lecture halls, technology and instructional equipment to better prepare students for growing fields of study and high-skill careers.
- Enhancements of classroom space and training centers for future nurses, firefighters and other first responders, as well as technically-trained workers.
- Expansion of veterans’ facilities and services as well as job-placement centers to train and re-train veterans as they transition into the civilian workforce.
Improvements also call for general health and safety repairs, energy-efficiency enhancements, and other needed facility renovations on each of the District’s three campuses.
The Board’s decision follows a June poll suggesting Measure J could be a success. Nearly 72% of likely voters surveyed recognized a funding need and indicated support of the measure.
“The community understands the value of our institutions.” said NOCCCD Board of Trustees President Jeff Brown. “More local residents than ever are relying on our high quality and affordable education programs to prepare them for competitive job opportunities or for transfer to CSU or UC campuses. We need to make sure that we’re able to continue to equip them with the skills they need to succeed.”
Passage of Measure J would amount to a projected $14.90 per $100,000 assessed value for property owners, and would include citizen oversight and regular audits to assure accountability and transparency. By law, funds from facility bond measures can only be spent on buildings, classrooms or instructional equipment. No bond funds can be spent on administrator pensions or salaries.
To pass this November 4th, Measure J would need a 55% approval rating vote by voters falling within NOCCCD boundaries, which include the cities of: Anaheim, Fullerton, Yorba Linda, Cypress, Buena Park, Placentia, Brea, La Habra, La Habra Heights, La Palma, Los Alamitos, Placentia, Rossmoor, Garden Grove, La Mirada, Orange, Seal Beach, Stanton and Whittier.
Now, did they market it that way, or in the way most advantageous to its passing? Let’s just say that they did the same as pretty much everyone else tried to sell voters on their candidates or positions, so it one wants to call people out for that sort of thing, they’re not going to be anywhere near the front of the line. Campaigning on one of one’s top three bullet points is pretty good by comparison to most efforts.
“Campaigning on one of one’s top three bullet points is pretty good by comparison to most efforts.”
Actually, since they apparently didn’t campaign on “the other guys is worse” or without outright falsehoods, I’d say they ran a pretty clean campaign…
Now, how efficiently they’ll use the money will be interesting. Hopefully they’ll get more than Irvine got for it’s $200 million of Great Park money…..
“Expansion of veterans’ facilities and services as well as job-placement centers to train and re-train veterans as they transition into the civilian workforce.”
Unfortunately those “veterann’s” facilities are also used bu everybody else – a deceptive appeal that bears no relationship to any benefits vets get that everyone else doresn’t get, too.
Shameful, really.
…And now administrators will be allotting themselves more salary out of the general fund now that none of that money will be used for construction….
I feel sorry for the residents near those establishments. Fullerton College will be getting another parking structure where the soccer field is. What used to be a quiet neighborhood is now going to be a zoo.
The last race in Orange County, which has been being tabulated in LA County, is all but over. Pending the results of the 1% canvass, which may not even touch the precincts in question, Measure J — the North Orange County Community College District bond — wins by about 31 votes. (The Register says that it’s 15, but they’re only counting how much “Yes” exceeded a tie when they also need to count how much “No” trailed a tie.)