I love Scott Lay’s work and I have great respect for John Hrabe’s. But Lay is now predicting that, if the Election Day turnout in Lake County holds, John Perez beats Betty Yee by 13 votes.
He’s wrong — for one likely reason and one dead-certain one.
To be clear: I’m not saying that it’s impossible that John Perez will come back and beat Betty Yee prior to any recount. I’m just saying that he won’t do so if he matches his Election Day results, wherein he beat Yee by a margin of 30.8% to 16.2%.
But let’s take a step back. The first reason that Perez won’t beat Yee — the merely “likely” reason– is that Perez won’t match his Election Day results. Lake County is just at the FENU stage, with 38.42% of its total cast ballots still uncounted. As I recall it’s uncounted total is about 87% VBM ballots — not Election Day ballots (for the most part, anyway). Logically, they could match the Election Day results — they could even be unanimously for Perez — but they mostly didn’t come in on Election Day and there’s no reason to think that that’s an appropriate model to use.
But let’s say that those 6053 outstanding ballots were all from a population with characteristics matching that of the voters who came out on Election Day. Hrabe (who says that the outcome is in doubt) and Lay (who lays it out in the chart at the above link) are missing one really important thing:
NOT ALL BALLOTS CONTAIN A VOTE FOR CONTROLLER.
Indeed, of the 9,703 ballots cast and counted in Lake County so far, only 8,949 (according to Lay’s own chart) contain a vote for Controller. In other words, only 92.23% of Lake’s ballots contained a vote for Controller. It’s not usually considered one of the “big” races. By comparison, 9,352, or 96.38% of Lake County’s already tabulated ballots contain a vote for Governor.
So, if that 92.23% percentage for the Controller’s race holds, those 6,053 votes contain only an estimated 5583 votes for Controller. Under Lay’s model, Perez would be expected to get 30.8% — or 1720 of them. Yee would be expected to get 16.2% of them — or 904. That’s a net decrease of Yee’s margin by 816 votes — but since she starts out with 867, she’d still be expected to win by 51.
It’s now all but certain that Betty Yee wins, at least prior to any recount.
Who casts ballots for all races on the ballot?
I don’t, I don’t vote for judges, I know very little about them.
On election day, I’ve seen the vote summary’s on ballots of those who left without finishing by pushing the cast button. many do not vote on a majority of the races and measures.
Try reading our Voter Guide next time! You’ll start voting on judges.
Yes, cook. The Orange Juice Blog. You should check it out some time. We even met and talked to most of the judicial candidates.
The right NOT TO VOTE for a candidate or race is a valid choice too.
Um…wow, sorry, nobody meant to imply you don’t have the RIGHT not to vote. This isn’t Australia after all.
Wait, didn’t this start with you saying you didn’t know anything about the judicial candidates? Even though you obviously read this blog, which covered them extensively? How come we’re always talking in circles around here?
Do we vote for judges? or just vote to retain who was appointed?
Well, cook, if people like you paid attention and voted, maybe we would NOT automatically send people like Derek “Shredded” Johnson back to the bench.
“would NOT automatically send people like Derek “Shredded” Johnson back”
Maybe the Democratic Party governor who appointed him should be drummed out of office?
I bet you even voted for that governor, so it is your fault this lawyer is on the bench.
Now THAT is pretty dumb.
Do you think I didn’t know Johnson was a Democrat? So what? Why is everything about party with you? Not to mention, how do we drum Gray Davis (whom I never voted for by the way) out of office ONE MORE TIME?
At least I did everything I could to help the honest conservative Helen Hayden, too bad you couldn’t be bothered.
I’m sure you voted for Nixon, should we hold Watergate against you?
Yes I did vote for Nixon when I was in Vietnam, I just turned 18 and it was my first election.
Like I said before, I don’t vote on contests that I know nothing about.
Scott Lay is a dweeb.
Who is Scott Lay, skallywag?
Is this a test?
You are not fit to lick Scott Lay’s boots, but I hope that despite that he’d be willing to let you try.
Yes your dweebness …..