HEY, John Hrabe & Scott Lay! NOT ALL BALLOTS CONTAIN A VOTE FOR CONTROLLER!


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Blank Ballot

Of Lake County’s 6,053 uncounted ballots in the Controller’s race, past results suggest that 8% of them will look like this guy’s: BLANK! They won’t contain a vote for ANY of the six candidates. That’s because some people are LESS INTERESTED in the Controller’s race than, say, the Governor’s race. Strange, I know — but true!

I love Scott Lay’s work and I have great respect for John Hrabe’s.  But Lay is now predicting that, if the Election Day turnout in Lake County holds, John Perez beats Betty Yee by 13 votes.

He’s wrong — for one likely reason and one dead-certain one.

To be clear: I’m not saying that it’s impossible that John Perez will come back and beat Betty Yee prior to any recount.  I’m just saying that he won’t do so if he matches his Election Day results, wherein he beat Yee by a margin of 30.8% to 16.2%.

But let’s take a step back.  The first reason that Perez won’t beat Yee — the merely “likely” reason– is that Perez won’t match his Election Day results.  Lake County is just at the FENU stage, with 38.42% of its total cast ballots still uncounted.  As I recall it’s uncounted total is about 87% VBM ballots — not Election Day ballots (for the most part, anyway).  Logically, they could match the Election Day results — they could even be unanimously for Perez — but they mostly didn’t come in on Election Day and there’s no reason to think that that’s an appropriate model to use.

But let’s say that those 6053 outstanding ballots were all from a population with characteristics matching that of the voters who came out on Election Day.  Hrabe (who says that the outcome is in doubt) and Lay (who lays it out in the chart at the above link) are missing one really important thing:

NOT ALL BALLOTS CONTAIN A VOTE FOR CONTROLLER.

Indeed, of the 9,703 ballots cast and counted in Lake County so far, only 8,949 (according to Lay’s own chart) contain a vote for Controller.  In other words, only 92.23% of Lake’s ballots contained a vote for Controller.  It’s not usually considered one of the “big” races.  By comparison, 9,352, or 96.38% of Lake County’s already tabulated ballots contain a vote for Governor.

So, if that 92.23% percentage for the Controller’s race holds, those 6,053 votes contain only an estimated 5583 votes for Controller.  Under Lay’s model, Perez would be expected to get 30.8% — or 1720 of them.  Yee would be expected to get 16.2% of them — or 904.  That’s a net decrease of Yee’s margin by 816 votes — but since she starts out with 867, she’d still be expected to win by 51.

It’s now all but certain that Betty Yee wins, at least prior to any recount.


About Greg Diamond

Prolix worker's rights and government accountability attorney. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Runs for office sometimes, so far to offer a challenge to someone nasty who would otherwise have run unopposed. Someday he might pick a fight intending to win it rather than just to dent someone. You'll know it when you see it. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level. A family member works part-time as a campaign treasurer. He doesn't directly profit from that relatively small compensation and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he hated. He does advise some local campaigns informally and generally without compensation. If that changes, he will declare the interest. He also runs a less frequently published blog called "The Brean," for his chosen hometown, where he is now fighting with its wealthiest and most avaricious citizen-donors. This just seems to be his way.