[Note: Updates after the U.S.-Portugal game are in maroon.]
OK, Ghana tied Germany. You weren’t expecting that. You were living in the world where Germany was already into the knockout rounds and if the U.S. beat or tied Portugal on Sunday everything was all right and Ghana was out of the picture and if not then the U.S. would have to beat Germany next week so long as its point differential was better than Portugal’s.
Well, that world is gone. The current point standings in Group G are: Germany with 4, U.S. with 3, Ghana with 1, Portugal with 0. Here’s what happens now.
(1) Rules of Tiebreakers
The ranking of each team in each group shall be determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all the group matches;
b) goal difference in the group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in the group matches.
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their ranking will be determined as follows:
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.
I stand with those who see (e) and (f) as redundant with (d). I also think that, before going to lots, the deciding factor should be who has taken the most corner kicks — which shows that they were attacking more.
(2) If the U.S. Beats Portugal
If the U.S. beats Portugal, then it makes the knockout rounds. The scores going into the third round would be 6, 4, 1, 0, U.S. on top. It is ranked #1 in Group G if it beats or ties Germany, and #2 if it loses. If it loses, then it will have to beat (as things now stand, more or less) Belgium, Argentina, Netherlands, and Brazil for the title.
(3) If the U.S. Ties Portugal
If the U.S. ties Portugal, the standings are 4, 4, 1, 1. The U.S. could then secure its trip to the knockout rounds with a win against Germany. See above. It could also advance with a tie against Germany — as could Germany. (This could make for a dull game, if both play to tie. Because Germany leads in both goal differential and total goals, it would get the #1 slot.)
But what happens if the U.S. ties Portugal and loses to Germany? If Portugal and Ghana tie, both end up with 2 points and the U.S. would still advance. But if either wins that game, it gets 4 points, and then we go to tiebreakers.
Let’s say that Ghana beats Portugal next week. The first criterion is goal differential; the U.S. is currently +1 and Ghana -1. Under the “U.S. ties Portugal, then loses to Germany while Ghana beats Portugal” scenario, that goal differential would be made up at worst. If either margin was 2 goals or more , Ghana advances. If they’re both one-goal margins, then we move on to total goals.
[ORIGINAL PARAGRAPH: Ghana currently has a 1 goal advantage there going into the U.S.’s second game tomorrow. It’s possible that the U.S. could still win on total goals — it’s more likely, for example, if it ties Portugal 9 to 9 — but not likely. If the U.S. ties 0-0, and then Ghana wins 1-0 and the U.S. loses 3-2, they would also be knotted up for this tiebreaker. If we move to head to head competition, then the U.S. wins based on its earlier victory.]
[REVISED PARAGRAPH AFTER 6/22 GAMES: The U.S. currently has a 1 goal advantage after the U.S.’s second game. It’s possible that the U.S. could still beat or match Ghana on total goals in this scenario — for example, Germany beats it 2-1 while Ghana (respectively) wins 1-0 or 2-0. If it’s total goals, we move to head to head competition, and then the U.S. wins based on its earlier victory.]
[ADDITIONAL PARAGRAPH, initially omitted:] If Portugal beats Ghana, then the first tiebreaker is goal differential — and here the U.S. has a +1 and Portugal a -4. So, if the combined margin of a U.S. loss and Portugal win is less than 5, the U.S. advances. If it’s more than 5, then Portugal advances. If it’s exactly 5 — then it’s on to the total goals tiebreaker. The U.S. has two more goals than Portugal. However, if Portugal wins 3-0 and the U.S. loses 3-1, the U.S. the goal differential is made up but the total goals will be the same. If that happens, then Portugal’s getting the tie against the U.S. means that, horror of horrors … we flip a coin! Worse than free kicks! (Note: IT SHOULD INSTEAD BE BASED ON THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CORNER KICKS IN ALL MATCHES, WHICH REWARDS AGGRESSIVENESS. Grrrrrrrrr.)
(3) If the U.S. Loses to Portugal
If the U.S. loses to Portugal, the standings become 4, 3, 3, 1 — and the U.S. has plenty of ways to fail to qualify.
First, if the U.S. loses to Germany as well — game over, man. Either Ghana or Portugal will necessarily get at least 4 points to the U.S.’s 3.
Second, if the U.S. beats Germany, then it necessarily advances. Portugal could still catch it to get the #1 spot, but it is well behind in goal differential. If it beats the U.S. by 1, then Portugal has to make up three goals to tie. If it beats the U.S. by 2, it has to make up one goal, and so on. If there’s a tie, then it would get the #1 rank based on head-to-head competition.
If it ties Germany, and Portugal beats Ghana, then Portugal advances as #1 with 6 points and Germany advances as #2 with 5.
If it ties Germany and Ghana beats Portugal, Germany advances with 5 points and the U.S. and Ghana go to tiebreakers. The U.S. goal differential would be 0 if it lost to Portugal by 1. Ghana’s winning would mean that it’s goal differential would be no less than 0. If either is a two or more goal margin, Ghana wins. As discussed above, it’s possible that the U.S. would still have more total goals than Ghana — but not likely.
If it ties Germany and Ghana and Portugal also tie, then Germany advances and the U.S. and Portugal go to tiebreakers. Under this scenario, Portugal wins if it beats the U.S. by 6 or more goals tomorrow, matching it in goal differential. If it beats the U.S. by 5 goals, then we move to the goals scored tiebreaker, where it would likely win as well (barring something like a 9-9 tie between U.S. and Germany.)
See — like I said, easy! Things will be easiest if it beats Portugal, though, so let’s see that happen.
Now let’s make this our World Cup Open Thread!
Tomorrow’s game against Portugal is crucial for the USA. The next game will feature the US coach, Huntington Beach resident Jurgen Klinssman, against the team he played for, and then coached at the last World Cup, Germany.
The surprising teams so far are Costa Rica, Chile and Mexico. Argentina and Brazil are not looking as good as expected. What about Spain and England already eliminated!
http://www.mlssoccer.com/worldcup/2014/news/article/2014/06/21/world-cup-14-reasons-us-national-team-can-and-maybe-will-beat-portugal
Great game, despite the sour beginning and bitter ending. I think that this is the first time that I’ve seen the US play in the World Cup and said to myself “they look like they belong in the World Cup.”
(Now aren’t you glad that I worked out all of the implications of what would happen if they tied?)
Oh man, quite a game! It feels like a loss though, 20 seconds away from winning.The games to decide this group are played on Thursday. The USA vs Germany game is going to be a wild one. The Phoenix club in Anaheim, and the German village in HB, are the local places to watch this game.
You don’t think that the US and Germany will play to a “gentleperson’s tie”? It gets both through, it gets Germany its coveted #1 ranking based on goal differential, etc. Makes sense for both sides!
(Nahh, I don’t think it will happen either. But it could!)
“We’re Americans…we like coffee not tea, football NOT soccer.” – Al Bundy.
How to celebrate when your team wins…World Cup: Mexico coach Miguel Herrera becomes a worldwide celebrity after sideline celebrations
http://www.mlssoccer.com/worldcup/2014/news/article/2014/06/23/world-cup-mexico-coach-miguel-herrera-becomes-worldwide-celebrity-after-side
*Mexico/Brazil in the final. The kick by Ronaldo shows why players like him and Beckum
will always get all the pretty girls and make all the big money.
You think that a Mexico side that BARELY qualified for the World Cup is going to take down The Netherlands on the way to the final?
Not impossible, but very unlikely.
*Neymar is intense and sparks the entire Mexico team, much as Ronaldo does for the Portugese. The sense of dramatic is big during the World Cup. This is not the Super Bowl where one team is usually totally overwhelming. When you are talking wins with one goal or even a penalty kick making the difference…anyone can win. Just like the USA team……they have done much better than the what was expected. Would love to see them beat our Germans, but we are guessing they will play for the tie, so that both teams can move on. They don’t want to see Ronaldo again…..EVER! Messi and the Argentine will probably be in the final four.
*Late news from the News room…..Lebron won’t play for the Heat next year and will probably go with Carmelo to Chicago. Don’t worry…they will still lose in the final.
*Ummm, Neymar doesn’t play for Mexico.
*Herrera….you are quite right ….Neymar is the Brazilian superstar!
This Mexican team is a different one that barely qualified. They could beat Netherlands. The Dutch team played very defensively against Chile, and won at the last minute on counterattacks. Mexico has a taller and less vulnerable defense.
Chile will play for the third consecutive WC against Brazil…and they have not advanced in the previous two. They have a better team this time, and Brazil does not have a strong squad as other WC, so a surprise could happen….
And that’s why I said “not impossible.”
Did you see that part?
C’mon…apart from Brazil, Mexico’s group wasn’t particularly strong. It’s not THAT much of a surprise that they’re into the round of 16.
That team they had a draw against in group play? Now they’re ALL that good.
*Did you guys see Messi nail the Nigerians today? Impressive. We will still go with Mexico – Brazil in the final. There is always an underdog. The French are good too, but then so were the Italians and they are gone. In the Sweet 16……anything can happen.
*In the Suarez Affair…..he should get the “Mad Dog Award”…..a Gold Trophy that looks like a Pit Bull with very sharp teeth. He is probably audtioning for the next Twilight Sequel. He now joins the ranks of fighters that bite off ears and such. Maybe Michael Vick can let him go play down on his farm in Georgia with the puppies…….. he didn’t turn in.
*Nine game suspension and four months out of FIFA with a complete stadium and sports facilities ban. Maybe he should have just had all his teeth removed?
*Can the USA beat Belgium? You bet your sweet bippie they can. The biggest question is whether Jorgan Klinsman can inspire them enough to do it.
Ann Coulter, a party pooper:
“While the rest of America is celebrating Team USA’s advancement into the World Cup knockout round (despite losing to Germany earlier today), the conservative columnist is slamming the sport in her latest article for her website, claiming, “any growing interest in soccer can only be a sign of the nation’s moral decay.”
“If more ‘Americans’ are watching soccer today, it’s only because of the demographic switch effected by Teddy Kennedy’s 1965 immigration law. I promise you: No American whose great-grandfather was born here is watching soccer. One can only hope that, in addition to learning English, these new Americans will drop their soccer fetish with time.”
http://www.eonline.com/news/554865/ann-coulter-slams-world-cup-fans-growing-interest-in-soccer-is-a-sign-of-the-nation-s-moral-decay?cmpid=par-121113-outbrain-paid-links
*Yeah, Ann should also study the Imperialism of England, the Mercantilism of the English, the rampant take over of over half the world by England and just be proud as punch we are taking England’s place in the final Sweet 16 – sudden death playoffs. How about that Brazil – Chile game? Almost took my Fantasy
Brail team out of the picture. Now we have to root for Mexico over the Dutch Crunch!
As a commenter from Australia wrote in the ESPN website : “The gods of football and the frame of the goal were not smiling on Chile this day …”
*Sadly, the Ref from Portugal sold out to the gambling interests and Mexico lost to the Dutch Crunch! The Dutch are a clunky, flopping team and without any sense of style.
Too bad Mexico…….they want a European Quarter Final against Brazil in the final. We will go with Germany, but they will need to be fierce against the Dutch.
The ref had not called a penalty foul against Mexico earlier, so his soft penalty call was kind of making up for that one. Mexico was so close….
Brazil is improving, but Colombia could beat them. The USA can beat Belgium.
¡VAMANOS, COSTA RICA!
*Did anyone watch France-Nigeria today? This is now the World Fruit Cup! This is the reason why Americans cannot stand Suuucheerr…..the floping, the over-acting, oh, I’m soooo injured…..the complete baloney. Bryant Gumbel on Real Sports outed these folks and they are dirty, paid off games with big money gamblers, players, refs and even coaches involved. Sad…