Do you want the analysis first, or the press releases? OK, fine — analysis first, but then you have to promise to go read the press releases below it. Promise? Well, whatever — analysis still comes first.
1. Why to Bet on Sharon Quirk-Silva’s Re-election
Assemblymember Sharon Quirk Silva has waded into the controversy over the County’s trying to flip off the state government regarding its share of the Vehicle License Fee. The County lost big in Court and, as things, stand, faces a major hemorrhage of its budget as a result. Quirk-Silva introducing a bill to fix the problem fairly — if one considers “fairly” getting the state to show mercy and overlook the County’s being led by arrogant dunderheads.
I admit to being a partisan of Sharon Quirk-Silva, so I’m trying to look at this as objectively as possible, but whatever way I look at it, I keep coming back to the same conclusion. The state had a county that’s not all that popular in Sacramento over a barrel. There’s no real reason for the state to be nice to Orange County about our attempted strong-armed grab for money that wasn’t rightly ours — except one: Sharon Quirk-Silva is asking them to do so, nicely and politely.
And so OC looks to make its way out of a huge jam of its own devising — because it has the right leader in place to make up for all of the ones who aren’t right.
Quirk-Silva can get this deal done — passed by both houses and signed by the Governor (who seems to be no fan of OC, except for certain major donors.) Her likely opponent Young Kim would not likely be able to, because she’s a protege of Ed Royce and that’s a really unpopular thing to be.
Now, if we had a Republican majority and a Republican Governor, then maybe Young Kim would be better able that Quirk-Silva to yank Orange County’s bacon out of the fire — but we don’t, so she isn’t. We have plenty of Republicans around who can get their party to do something nice and charitable for us, like forgiving the stupidity of our elected leaders, but not a lot of Democrats, and less so progressive Democrats who are on the same wavelength as our leaders.
Quirk-Silva has two big advantages at such a task.
One is that she is well-liked and well-respected in Sacramento. Believe it or not, that doesn’t happen with everyone whom OC sends north — I won’t name names — but the verdict is apparently already in on Sharon: she’s someone who will be going places within the legislative leadership. (I’m not saying Speaker, but I am saying no less than influential committee chair.)
That in itself would not be enough to allow her to successfully plead for mercy on behalf of Orange County. The second advantage is what does the trick.
Democrats in Sacramento know that control of the State Assembly very likely turns on whether Quirk-Silva can hold on to AD-65 this year. There are other ways that Democrats can hold onto power, but this is the most straightforward one.
Therefore, when Sharon wants something done, they will tend to say yes to her. This is not to say that she doesn’t earn that consideration; she’s smart and she has a damn good staff. But lots of legislators are good and don’t get that sort of consideration from the leadership in Sacramento. Sharon does — and will continue to do so. (Maybe not every time, but when push comes the shove on something critical — like this — she’ll be the one that people want to send to make the ask.)
Now, how will those people react to Young Kim? They don’t have any reason to want to make her look good. In fact, with 2016 likely to be a more Democratic year than 2014, they would have every reason not to make her look good. So, if she were to propose this same legislation, it would be much less likely to pass.
Politicians know this. Interest groups know it. Voters will know it. And that’s why, pretty much regardless of how much Ed Royce-generated money Young Kim has to spend, she’s still not going to beat Sharon Quirk-Silva.
The ironic part? Young Kim — late of La Habra — might well have easily thumped the whole field if she had stayed in AD-55 and run from there. But she moved to Fullerton. It looks to me like her move was the result of a deal between Bob Huff — patron, for whatever reason, of Diamond Bar’s Ling-Ling Chang — and Ed Royce. If so, Royce may not have done her any favors.
2. Press Release from Quirk-Silva’s Office — You PROMISED to Read This!
(SACRAMENTO) — Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (D- Fullerton) will introduce tomorrow Assembly Bill (AB) 701 to settle a long-term VehicleLicense Fee Adjustment Amount (VLFAA) formula dispute between Orange County and the State of California, thus restoring critical county funds and preventing drastic budget cuts. AB 701 will allow Orange County to receive the same dollar-for-dollar amount of VLFAA property tax revenue as all other 57California counties.
“AB 701 is a bipartisan solution that ensures continued budget stability for Orange County and prevents additional cuts to county public safety programs in this fiscal year,” said Assemblywoman Quirk-Silva. “The entire Orange County Delegation of legislators has already pledged their support and I am confident that the rest of my colleagues will follow suit.”
Orange County owes the state $148 million as a result of 2013 court decision concerning the restoration of the county’s VLFAA property tax allocation as a result of the SB 89 transfer in 2011. Without a deal, the County would have been forced to consider severe budget reduction strategies that could have included laying off employees and making additional funding reductions for public safety programs in this fiscal year. AB 701 ensures both, more time to pay this debt, and that Orange County will receive the same proportion of funds distributed by the VLFAA as other county governments. Additionally, the state will adjust the baseline for this revenue allocation to $53 million.
“Orange County deserves to be treated no differently than any other Californiacounty,” continued the Assemblywoman. “It is a privilege to bring local and state officials together to achieve a resolution that so many can support.”
The measure is set to be heard on the Senate and the Assembly Floor next week.
3. Press Release from the County Board of Supervisors (Shortly After Sharon’s)
(Santa Ana, CA) — Assembly Bill 701 will be introduced in the CaliforniaLegislature Thursday to help resolve Orange County’s Vehicle License Fee Adjustment Amount (VLFAA) dispute.
The bill, to be introduced by Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (65th District, Fullerton), would allow Orange County to be treated equally with California’s other 57 counties when it comes to the VLFAA funding formula. “This bill gets Orange County back into the VLFAA formula, like all other counties in California, and will provide us with a more secure revenue source,” said Shawn Nelson, Chairman of the Board of Supervisors. “It is also important that this revenue source has the potential for future growth as property values increase.”
The bill will be introduced in the Senate tomorrow and is expected to go to the Assembly on concurrence early next week. County staff will continue to work with Assemblywoman Quirk-Silva and the entire Orange County Legislative Delegation as the bill progresses in the California Legislature.
4. Final Thought
Of course, you can bet whichever way you want to bet on this race. I’m just telling you which bet isn’t futile.
“”She can get things done”” – air quotes.
That is happy horse-shit. They put any lame-oes name on a piece of legislation if they think he/she will benefit more politically from that.
Here’s the opinion of one capitol observer, Scott Lay (against whom I know that skally carries a grudge for reasons apparently unremembered):
Do I believe Scott — or skally? I believe I believe Scott.
NOW skallywag finally has a good reason to hate Scott Lay!
Exactly. Committee Chair this! Middle Aged Latina with Cubic Zirconia Necklace.
GOOGle has a heading called Cubic Zirconia vs. Diamond.
OH the irony! or lack of!
Is that really a cubic zirconia necklace? Are you sure?
Maybe you can be our fashion and style columnist.
As you point out the deal was done to make Quirk look good at home so she can keep her job. I sincerely doubt if she understands the tiniest part of the VLF mess.
This isn’t much of a victory. The County will forgo the “Lou Correa money” to gain consistency with the other 57 counties in how they collect property tax from the State. That was the money Correa wangled from the Legislature to get that tax bill through a few years back.
The net annual loss is $27,000,000 – plus the County has to pay back the $146,000,000 it sequestered the past two years.
Orange County remains one of the highest property tax rate counties in California.
And btw, what wordsmith penned this intellectual brick wall?:
“Orange County deserves to be treated no differently than any other Californiacounty,”
No, the deal was done to pull Orange County’s chestnuts out of the fire. It will be successful, though, because of Quirk-Silva. Without Quirk-Silva and her position in the legislature, and its political implications, the rest of the state would not give a damn about Orange County’s chestnuts’ burning to a crisp, given how we had flat-out flipped them off. They might even sort of enjoy it.
“Isn’t much of a victory”? Yeah, it’s only about as much of a victory as was possible to obtain at this point, given the County’s contemptuous actions based on a brain-addled legal argument. It’s a victory that would not otherwise be happening, too, so like your former boss you could perhaps act a little bit nice about it.
“Orange County remains one of the highest property tax rate counties in California.” Not for corporations, it doesn’t — check the record of concessions to the big players by the Assessor’s office. That’s why normal homeowners are asked to pick up the slack.
As for this: “Orange County deserves to be treated no differently than any other California county” — you’re right, that doesn’t make sense. Clearly, having bitten the turf, we deserve to be treated more poorly than other counties in this respect. (“To the victor goes the spoils,” and all that.) But we won’t be, because we have the advantage of Quirk-Silva in office.
Finally, I detect a scent — who am I kidding, it’s a reek — of sexism in your comment. If you “sincerely doubt if she understands the tiniest part of the VLF mess,” then you are a damn fool and you shouldn’t be surprised by your next political faceplant. And all the faceplants that follow it.
OC male conservatives do the same thing with Loretta Sanchez — portraying her as an idiot despite what should be massive amounts of evidence to the contrary, based on selective out-of-context quotes and their own misreadings. You do this without, so far as I can tell, any attempt at having an actual policy discussion with these women. Go on being smug, though, I guess; they’ll go on beating you.
Sexism? No, that’s your imagination. Most male politicians don’t understand the the tiniest part of the VLF mess – yourself included.
As we both indicated above, the deal was done to protect Quirk’s marginal district and the Dems supermajority opportunities. It was not done as a philanthropic gesture to pull anybody’s chestnuts out of the fire; and the Correa money reverts to the State.
However, if it’s of any help, I think Quirk is just as smart as Loretta Sanchez.
It’s “Quirk-Silva,” by the way, David, not “Quirk.” Check the ballot from last year if you need a refresher.
I’m sorry, but I think that you’re not only sexist in your dismissive assessment of both Sharon and Loretta — although I think that you’re just as non-sexist as Dana Rohrabacher, to return cute for cute — but you’re completely deluded.
An act can have more than one purpose. Here, the PRIMARY purpose of proponents of such a solution is to save a gigantic share of the money awarded to the state by the court. Nevertheless, because OC County politics is full of arrogant and clueless chest-beaters — maybe you knew some in your previous job — the rest of the state would be happy to see OC pay the full penalty. It’s the presence of a SECONDARY purpose — to acknowlege that Sharon has real pull in Sacramento, and if she wants something for her county then it will get real consideration — that allows the primary purpose to succeed.
You’re a smart guy; this is not too complicated for you. If Norby had won the last election, there’s no way that this passes. If Kim wins the next election, there’s no way that this passes. Only having someone in the county caucus with this kind of clout can get this to pass.
As for neither me nor anyone else not understanding “[even] the tiniest part of the VLF mess” — OK, if you’re going to condescend that much I’ll take your dare. Make up a quiz for me regarding the VLF mess covering both the tiniest and less tiny parts of it and I’ll answer your questions off of the top of my head. If they’re striaghtforward questions and I get them all wrong, you win.
VLF is “Vehicle License Fee,” by the way.
Try to stick to the subject – which is how Sharon Quirk saved Orange County, not my alleged sexism created as a distraction by you. Common sense tells us that Quirk was permitted to have this “victory” by the Dem leadership to show how wonderful she is. I’m not buying it. Thiis victory is still a net loss of $27,000,000. Hooray!
Mr. Beelzebub from VOC says it quite well: “The thought of her putting together a package of noodles and seasoning in hot water and following the instructions correctly is questionable for me. The thought of her formulating this county bailout package is simply unbelievable fo me. I think she was the mule. Not the brains.”
It’s not a distraction, it’s a revulsion. And it’s on topic, as it attests to the difficulty that “objective observers” like you have in taking seriously women who are more attractive than Sean Nelson. The “noodles” example you loving cite — thank you for that, by the way, is an example of why so many women love Republicans.
So we owed some low nine-figure amount, because we were laughed out of court for what he did, and you think that getting it down to $27 million is not a real victory?
Oh, save your fake “revulsion.” There’s nothing in my comment to suggest sexism and you know it. In fact you would be ashamed of yourself for the deflection except that as a political toadstool job one is to abandon a sense of shame.
Then read my comment below and make try to make yourself informed on the issue of the State’s rip off.
I leave it to readers to read your comments and decide. As a purely partisan matter, I’d like for all Republicans to endorse your views, but that would be unkind.
I always kinda felt that this republican/libertarian crowd that called SQS, Loretta, Pam Keller, etc. morons seemed probably sexist. Maybe Zenger could counteract that if he gave examples of female politicians – especially attractive ones – that he DOESN’T consider morons.
Jose Solorio recklessly voted for a budget that lost this money for Orange County in the first place. He failed to get it back.
“If Norby had won the last election, there’s no way that this passes. If Kim wins the next election, there’s no way that this passes. Only having someone in the county caucus with this kind of clout can get this to pass.”
A frosh member with “clout” – what a novel concept. Does SQS have this kind of “juice”?
I doubt it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSymgKWUbcw
It’s all transparent campaign publicity. I doubt if anybody’s buying it.
Yeah …. but that doesn’t stop Diamond from his pathetic peddling of it.
Yeah, being elected in a swing district with a supermajority on the line can indeed confer “clout.”
How the hell does that confer “clout”?
What it confers is a sense that dem politicos need to make SQS look good to voters who are not likely to vote for her in 2014 in order to maintain their shakey super-maj. Screwball Norby was fairly easy to knock off.
Perhaps we had best start by defining “clout.” You first.
Bull. If she had clout and really understood the issue she would have made OC 100% whole. But of course she has no clout and we gave back the $50,000,000 Correa money.
You presume that OC deserves to be made 100% whole, despite its bad behavior (including pursuing the court case.) You don’t get that OC’s brilliant leaders screwed the pooch on this one and needed to be bailed out. If OC loses nothing, then they aren’t deterred from doing so again. For you, that’s fine — but it’s a completely unreasonable ask.
It still would have passed, it just would have had a different authors name on it.
No, if Quirk were not holding the seat there would have been no deal. But that doesn’t mean she should get credit for some accomplishment. The deal was tied up in a pretty bow and handed to her.
In the small, small print: We’re still getting ripped off.
Why do you think so, Carl? Why do you think that the state should give back nine-figures of damages owed to OC just because David Zenger thinks that that’s the only correct outcome?
You just demonstrated that you haven’t got a clue about the money involved or the twisted process that created the mess.
The VLF allocation was about $48,000,000. The annual property tax assessment withheld by the County was $73,000,000. The County always owed one or the other. But the “Quirk” deal takes the $50,000,000 of Correa money back and leaves the $73,000,000. But wait! The Correa money had NOTHING to do with the VLF and the Triple Flip. It was a scam Correa worked out so the Dems could buy his vote on the tax increase a few years back. That was supposedly about property tax inequity.
That’s an annual net loss of $25,000,000 (minimum), plus it seems the State is trying to claw back two years of property tax withheld by the County.
It was all completely unjust and a brutal rape of the OC taxpayers. But short of succession what else is there?
But hooray for Quirk anyway, because if you say she’s dumb you’re sexist.
Look up “fungible.” The article may mention the example of “money.”
After that, we can discuss what happens when you are assessed damages due to losing a court case.
You know you occasionally wake up on a Saturday early to get some housework done or whatever, and you flip on the TV and ALL YOU SEE IS INFOMERCIALS?
That’s how I felt when I read this.
Then I should have pitched for you to buy something.
That’s the point Diamond – you did put forward (pitch) the load of crap that SQS was nearly a miracle worker with “clout.” Are you that dense?
No, seriously: define “clout.” Next we’ll figure out whence “clout” comes.
I didn’t call her “nearly a miracle worker”; I said that if you don’t have a well-liked Democrat in a marginal district on which a supermajority probably depends pushing this deal, this deal probably doesn’t happen. You seem to sort of agree, but somehow you think that that’s some sort of a moral failing.
and to think that Squirk Silva’s career would be over if she didn’t mention socks and dodge the recall of Bushala and his cronies. Bushala missed on that fast ball big time. Now she’s moved on and will keep moving.
*Ah yes, the Imperial Incumbacy theory! Yep….all true!