Weekend Open Thread: Scope of Neal Kelley’s Swath of Destruction Now Known


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Scott Lay of The Nooner compiled a chart of the largest and smallest increases in voter registration between when registration closed for last June’s primary and last month — and when it comes to “smallest increases,” WE’RE #1!  And #2!  And #3 through #7!  Yes, this is the doing of Registrar of Voters’ Neal Kelley’s purge of inactive voters from the active rolls, previously addressed at the above link!  You can view the carnage in this chart.  (Note: this is not actually carnage carnage, but if people don’t vote between now and 2014 they will have to re-register before the 2015-2016 cycle if they want to vote for Hillary.  Um, I mean, for U.S. President.)

Smallest Increases in Registration Between May 21, 2012 and February 10, 2013 Report
District  Total Reg Change Total Reg Change %
AD69 (Santa Ana)  (30,452) -19.3%
AD65 (Fullerton)  (37,791) -16.8%
AD72 (Seal Beach)  (41,944) -16.0%
AD74 (Irvine)  (34,448) -11.6%
AD68 (Tustin)  (27,072) -10.6%
AD73 (Dana Point)  (29,221) -10.1%
AD55 (Yorba Linda)  (5,449) -2.2%
AD01 (Northeast Cal)  5,081 1.9%
AD32 (Kings)  2,982 2.3%
AD34 (Bakersfield)  5,352 2.4%

As Lay writes:

Obviously, Orange County districts are significantly impacted by the most aggressive voter roll review, which led to the declaration that 285,000 voters were “inactive” because they had not voted in the last four years.

By the Voting Rights Act’s Hammer, something looks wrong here!  I suspect that there may be partisan machinations here!  Lay continues:

Before anyone jumps to partisan accusations, of the 214,480 removed from the report to the state between the May 21, 2012 and February 10, 2013 report, 63,511 were Democrats, 96,252 were Republicans, and 45,304 were no party preference.

NEVER MIND!  NOTHING TO SEE HERE!  MOVE ALONG!

(That reasonably closely tracks the partisan split among OC voters, especially taking into account that Republicans tend to be older and thus to become deader quicker.)

All right, admittedly, these results are more likely to affect bragging rights by the parties rather than election results.  Some of these inactive voters are, as noted, recently-ish deceased, and probably will not re-register during this two year period.  (One hopes not, anyway.)  Still, it’s interesting to see where the percentage declines are greatest — which seems pretty much to track alongside Assembly District ideology, with more liberal districts showing larger drops.  This is, I’ll bet, largely due to more transient populations — and it does suggest that the Democratic Party needs to find those who moved and encourage them to contact the Registrar for reactivation.

(You may note the anomaly of AD 55, my district up north.  The smaller drop here reflects that the district is shared with Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties.  (OC provided about 30,000 of Democrat Gregg Fritchle’s 65,000 votes, but almost 57,000 of Republican Curt Hagman’s more than 97,000.  My guess is that the smaller percentage is in error, perhaps failing to factor in the smaller denominator.  If not, then come up to AD-55, people, because we’re apparently less likely to die!)

This is a holiday weekend — Cesar Chavez Day, Easter, and the tail-end of Passover — so many people (especially public servants, I’ve found) may be out and about, which is why I’ve written something dry for this week’s WOT rather than juicy.  (Just wait until next week for that!)  We at OJB wish you all, depending on what you celebrate, one, two, or three happy of the above.)  Sadly, we missed noting the Hindu holiday of Holi this past Wednesday — but at least we can use that for our picture!)

Holi celebration

Next year, we’ve REALLY got to get all of OC’s politicians together to celebrate this.

This is, as you may have suspected from the headline, your Weekend Open Thread.  Talk about this, that, the other thing, or whatever’s on your mind, within broad boundaries of discretion and decorum.


About Greg Diamond

Worker's rights attorney now moving into "good governance" litigation. North Vice Chair of Democratic Party of Orange County and occasional candidate. Proud to be prolix. Unless otherwise specifically stated, his writings never speak for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level. He tries to either suppress or openly acknowledge his partisan, issue, ideological, and "good government" biases in most of his writing here. If you have a question about any particular writing, just ask him about it and (unless you are an pseudonymous troll) he will probably answer you at painful length. He lives in Brea but generally doesn't blog about it. A family member works as a campaign treasurer for Wendy Gabriella in AD-73; he doesn't directly profit from that relatively small compensation and it doesn't affect his coverage. He does advise some campaigns informally and without compensation, although in 2014 he may receive some compensation for campaign consulting and fundraising for the campaign of Jorge Lopez for Orange County Assessor.