.
SOME LOCAL RACES WE’LL BE WATCHING LIKE HAWKS, starting around 9 or 10 tonight:
The Congressional race between Alan Lowenthal (our fave) and Gary DeLong, in the 47th district including Garden Grove, Westminster, Los Alamitos and thereabouts.
The Congressional race between Jay Chen (our fave) and racist incumbent Ed Royce, in the 39th district including Fullerton, Buena Park, La Habra, Brea, Placentia, and Yorba Linda.
The Assembly race between Sharon Quirk-Silva (our fave) and incumbent Chris Norby, up in the 65th district including Fullerton, Buena Park, some Anaheim, La Palma, Cypress and Stanton.
The Assembly race between the two Republicans Travis Allen (whom we’re secretly rooting for as the more honest underdog) and Los Al Mayor Troy Edgar, in the 72nd District including northern HB, Fountain Valley, Westminster, Seal Beach, Garden Grove and Los Alamitos.
CITIES we’ll be watching like Falcons
COSTA MESA. Will the residents of this troubled burgh accept or reject Riggy’s dictatorial new charter, with Measure V? Will they choose a council of his “3M” allies, the anti-worker Monahan, Mensinger and McCarthy, or will they instead go with OUR moderate, pragmatist heroes, the TOP THREE NAMES ON THE BALLOT, Genis, Stephens and Weisburg? This is Scott Baugh’s grand experiment in rightwing social engineering – will it continue with the imprimatur of Goat Hill’s people?
ANAHEIM. Will Mayor Tait have a council majority to help him enact his essential reforms these next two years, or will he continue to be hamstrung by a council loyal to Curt Pringle, Disney, and the other local corporate interests? IN OTHER WORDS, CAN JORDAN BRANDMAN BE KEPT DOWN TO THIRD PLACE – by Loes and Kring – or, less likely, Leos and Roberts or Kring and Roberts? And how well WILL our blogger Duane Roberts do? We are ALL OVER this one.
FULLERTON. Me and Greg Diamond disagree on some things here. We both want to see the defeat of Chevron’s Measure W. We’d both like to see the extremist Bushala majority reduced to a minority, which in practice means that our dear webmaster Travis Kiger – a wonderful lovable guy but a bull in the council china shop – must be beat by three others. But Greg thinks highly of Democratic candidate Jan Flory, and I most definitely do not. I want to see the exemplary public servants Jane Rands and Barry Levinson get onto council, and see the defeat of Travis as desirable but not a life-and-death question as Greg does. We’re watching this one hell of closely – keep your eyes here!
In HUNTINGTON BEACH we are watching and rooting for the DEFEAT OF MEASURE Z, Don Hansen’s parting drown-the-government-in-your-bathtub measure. And we’re cheering for Council candidates Jill Hardy (who has recently been the subject of such hateful mailers) and Jim Katopodis. Realistically – if Jill Hardy got in, and Dave Sullivan got back in, replacing Keith Bohr and Don Hansen, and Devin Dwyer managed to hang on, it wouldn’t be SUCH a bad council. Jill would be a better Dem and environmentalist than Keith, and Dave would be more moderate than Don. I could live with that. But Dave’s a homophobe, I’m just saying.
In ORANGE we are rooting for the defeat of Matt Cunningham’s Measure FF which will allow his crooked developer friends to pave over a bunch of open space out there.
In the CAPISTRANO UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT we are rooting for the Children First candidates that you can see off to your right – Hanacek, Alpay, McCormick and Pritchard. And I’m especially rooting for the end of this election so I can take down all these damn ads.
And in SANTA ANA we’re vaguely rooting for this “revolution” and David Benavides, we’re so tired of Pulido running so many things in this county. Is this even in the cards? We don’t know…
Keep your eyes on the OJ for the latest on all of the above! And let us know what you hear as well, ok?
UPDATES 11 pm!
With the small numbers of precincts reporting, the Orange Juice can confidently prognosticate that:
Costa Mesa has rejected the Riggy Charter (Measure V) – although their choice of Council candidates is a real mixed bag so far – with the great Sandy Penis Genis leading, followed by all the three M’s, and Stephnes nipping at their heels – he’ll have to leapfrog over both MCarthy and Monahan – but hey, they’re both midgety aren’t they? So we’ll see.
In Huntington Beach – I’m really liking how the council race is turning out SO far with Jill Hardy leading despite all the nasty attacks on her, moderate Republican Dave Sullivan at #2, and OUR SECOND FAVORITE Mr. Katopodis at #3! But the government-busting Measure Z is tight as a tick – we’re rooting for it to fail, and it’s a little ahead right now.
Happy to report that Fullerton is soundly rejecting Chevron’s Measure W! Their council race is much less to my liking – in fact it’s turning out pretty much exactly as Diamond predicted – Whitaker on top, the pointless Fitzgerald #2, and Travis and Jan Flory battling it out for #3. MY favorite candidates are currently down at #6 and 8, despite the fact that they’re the anti-W candidates. I REALLY don’t like Jan Flory. But I suppose the SAFE thing sanity-wise is for her to beat the extremist Travis. But that really means the end (temporarily anyway) of the Fullerton revolution. Either way is very sad.
ORANGE is going well with the voters rejecting Cunningham’s FF development measure, and our recommended candidates ahead – Mayor Tita, and Councilmembers Murphy and Alvarez. Now THAT all fits in together, unlike these other confusing towns.
WE CAN ALSO SAY with moderate confidence that Travis Allen has handed Troy Edgar’s ass to Troy Edgar, in the 72nd AD race. Let me rephrase it – the OJ is calling that race for Travis – the feisty underdog that we backed!
The Chen-Royce race was no contest, despite Jay’s great campaign – in this case the money and the lies won, and Royce creamed his opponent as he always does.
We’re also gonna go ahead and call the 47th congressional race for Alan Lowenthal, as he leads his opponent by 5% with half the precincts reporting. We’ll let you know if we have to change that.
CLOSE CLOSE CLOSE – In AD 65 Norby is ahead of Quirk-Silva by only 1%, with half the precincts reporting … we will keep our fingers crossed on that one.
ANAHEIM. Ah, Anaheim. It’s looking like Kring and Brandman. UGH. How did Leos fall so far behind? I had heard of polling that had him at #1. But there are very few precincts left, for him to cover the missing 5000 plus he needs to beat Brandman. Looks like another two years of frustration for OC’s biggest city and their reformist Mayor. Congratulations to Lucille and Jordan, and I hope Jordan turns into a better councilman than many of us fear. I mean, like, independent. And at least keeps his promises to Los Amigos.
******* half an hour later ********
FULLERTON – Travis has jumped past Flory – by 31 votes, but eleven precincts still out. Greg must be having a stroke. And I’m glad to see in Costa Mesa that John Stephens has now hopped over McCarthy and only needs to skip over the leprechaun Monahan to achieve a sane City Council. He’s got a little over 300 votes to make up in the nine uncounted precincts, to pull that one off.
A mixed bag in SANTA ANA. The Good Government initiative GG is totally kicking ass, as is new Councilman Roman Reyna. Pulido is proving as unbeatable as ever though, boasting nearly twice the votes of reformist challenger Benavides. Other councilpersons will be Angelica Amezcua and a returning Sarmiento. This DOES mean Pulido no longer controls a majority, right?
What will I be checking obsessively now? The HB candidates. HB’s Measure Z. The Costa Mesa race. The “race within a race” between Flory and Kiger determining Fullerton’s future of madness or mediocrity. The Norby – QuirkSilva race.
*******NEARLY MIDNITE**********
HOLD THE PHONES …. Quirk-Silva has just sprinted past Norby! By only 400 votes, but Chris is running out of precincts to catch up! WOW!! Does this help us get the assembly or what?
All you Diamond-haters, he’s not doing quite as bad as you all thought, up at 42% with what he admits was not much of a campaign for himself. He’s my buddy – I gotta look out for him…
GOOD WESTMINSTER NEWS JUST AFTER MIDNITE
I’d been ignoring Westminster because my favorite Diana Lee Carey (heroine of the 405) was trailing … but something happened when we weren’t looking, and now she’s at a strong #2, with fellow Dem Sergio Contreras on top. And Tri Ta totally kicking ass as Mayor. These three were current Mayor Margie Rice’s choice – and she’s been the best, most independent Republican you’ve ever met. Hope Diana keeps up her lead over Tyler Diep…
FULLERTON is DONE. Whitaker/Fitzgerald/Kiger, Kiger beating Flory by a mere 76 votes. People are gonna be so mad at me… But still, I don’t think Travis is as terrible and dangerous as they do, and nor do I think at all highly of Flory. Good luck to Fullerton, and congratulations on your rejection of Chevron. Hey, what’s up with your frickin schizophrenia anyway, putting Chevron whores in the TOP FIVE SLOTS?
NOW SHARON HAS WON .. as Diamond announces in comments below. This is big. Worth thinking about, tomorrow.
COSTA MESA, 12;20. SHIT. That slithery leprechaun Monahan has just snuck past Stephens again. Why is he even running, he’s so obviously .. not in physical or mental shape for it any more. At least he won’t have a charter to help him screw up the city worse…. and let’s see…. still nine more precincts and he’s 300 votes ahead, could switch back…
You know, I’ve been ignoring Irvine… but this is big
Half-past-midnight – the Indestructible Larry Agran has been destroyed by mumbling Stephen Choi, who is now the new Irvine Mayor. Everything’s topsy-turvy – remember how the Orange Juice Oracle warned us about Mercury in retrograde? It’s possible that *Art Pedroza* was right when he warned that candidate Daigle was taking away more votes from Larry than from Dr. No. Wow… what does this mean? I haven’t been following Irvine. And Dan C will e-mail me to say I’m a retard if I get anything wrong…. Krom, Shea, Schott on Council – that makes a Republican majority, doesn’t it? I mean, I sort of don’t like that as a Democrat… but the town of Irvine IS mostly Republican, isn’t it? And maybe Larry DOES need some time out of office for once in decades. And if one of the Republicans is Lalloway … he was the quickest with the Sparkle Fingers when we did Occupy down there….
OK, I may be getting slap-happy at this late hour, so many good things have happened … from Obama re-elected, Senators Warren, Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin elected, Prop 32 defeated, Sharon QS in the assembly…. I should probably go to sleep but let me go see what more there is in HB and CM…
AND NOR Should I have gone to sleep, look at my Huntington Beach:
Z is now NO (by over 500 votes), and Katopodis has not only kept third place but leapt over Sullivan to 2nd.
SO! A majority Democratic/environmentalist council in HB – I don’t think we even dreamed of that. So now, whenever Sullivan, Harper and Carchio want to, they can just give in and get along with the great new majority of Joe Shaw, Connie Boardman, Jill Hardy and Jim Katopodis. And Atlas PAC? Fuck you very much.
A short while ago, I suggested that the Fullerton Council race was probably one in which Whitaker was #1, Fitzgerald was #2, and Kiger and Flory were fighting it out closely for the third spot.
We have the absentees and 8 out of 88 precincts in as I write. Let’s see how it looks.
BRUCE WHITAKER 5,950 14.7%
JENNIFER FITZGERALD 5,530 13.7%
TRAVIS KIGER 5,103 12.6%
JAN M. FLORY 5,070 12.5%
RICK ALVAREZ 3,642 9.0%
JANE RANDS 3,183 7.9%
DON BANKHEAD 3,040 7.5%
BARRY LEVINSON 2,590 6.4%
KITTY JARAMILLO 2,355 5.8%
BRIAN BARTHOLOMEW 2,223 5.5%
MATTHEW HAKIM 1,141 2.8%
ROBERTA REID 632 1.6%
If you didn’t cast a vote in the Kiger-Flory “race within a race,” you decided not to help determine the fate of Fullerton. As predicted — though maybe that will change.
Suck it Chevron. That is all.
Amen.
Yea.
MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 72nd District
Completed Precincts: 258 of 315
TRAVIS ALLEN
53,249
54.9%
TROY EDGAR
43,730
45.1%
Sharon Quirk-Silva has beaten Chris Norby by 1004 votes with all precincts counted.
That really kicks ass. Sharon helps get us to the 2/3 we need. Have you seen if we picked up another seat elsewhere?
BTW you didn’t do all that bad at 42%.
43.6% and it will rise with provisionals and such. I may get near to about 45%, if the pattern from the primary repeats itself. That was about my best case against Huff unless I’d suddenly gotten $100,000 there at the end.
Of course, I would have done even better if I were not the worst candidate ever!
STATE SENATOR 29th District
Completed Precincts: 421 of 421
Vote Count Percentage
ROBERT “BOB” HUFF 97,274 57.4%
GREG DIAMOND 72,182 42.6%
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th District
Completed Precincts: 296 of 296
Vote Count Percentage
ED ROYCE 81,401 63.7%
JAY CHEN 46,476 36.3%
Greg, you did better than Jay Chen?!? How the heck did that happen? I think he spent more money on his campaign than you did, right? I guess you can take that to Mox as not being the worst…
First, you’re only looking at OC districts in a three-county race.
I got a higher percentage of the vote than Jay Chen, but there is no way I can say that I “did better than” him. Royce spent something like $5,000,000 or so to defeat him; Huff spent maybe 1% of that at most to beat me. (Of course, I spent around 1% of what Jay and the SuperPAC supporting him spent.) If Huff had spent $5 million against me I would have gotten maybe three votes, and I’m not even sure about the other two.
I scored at about the partisan break in my district, reapportioning non-Ds and Rs in rough proportion to the partisan split. That’s about all I had a right to expect. Given the nature of the district and the amount spent against him, Jay remains one of the more effective candidates in any OC race, despite being a few points behind me.
“First, you’re only looking at OC districts in a three-county race.
I got a higher percentage of the vote than Jay Chen, but there is no way I can say that I “did better than” him. Royce spent something like $5,000,000 or so to defeat him; Huff spent maybe 1% of that at most to beat me. (Of course, I spent around 1% of what Jay and the SuperPAC supporting him spent.) If Huff had spent $5 million against me I would have gotten maybe three votes, and I’m not even sure about the other two.”
Well, this was an orange county result blog, you still did better than him in the end result. From what you are saying in the three county race though, Jay should have done better then. The North/Northwest side of this district is dominately Chinese Americans which I thought would give Jay more advantage, no? Well, at least do better than you. 😛 (joking)
I don’t think that you’re figuring $5 million spent against him into your equation.
If results hold, then Sharon’s is the 54th Democratic seat — making Tom Daly the swing vote in the legislature.
Of course, he could be recalled if he goes all Solorio on us. Heh-heh.
The race to watch is AD-32 in Kings County, where Democrat Rudy Salas has a 268-vote lead (50.2% to 49.8%) over Pedro Rios (who probably benefited greatly from the “Vote for Pedro” contingent.) That one may see-saw.
Sharon’s going to Sacramento! Who’d have thunk it? Well, we did here, that’s who!
With a couple of thousand or so more votes counted, Sharon’s lead is now extended to 1043.
*We do have to say….this was very surprising. Undoubtedly, the fix was in. Norby had done something along the way to be an embarrassment to the local Republican hierarchy.
So, Chariman Vern and Dr. D. were right about this. OK, we take our lumps and go on. SQS…must have kissed someone’s ring to get that posting…..it will be interesting to see how she votes…..and on what.
Believe me, the fix was not in. She and her team worked like hell to make this happen.
Among the things they did was to build voter registration to the point where AD-65 became a plurality-Democratic district. The margin in the race is largely in line with registration.
What got the registration so high, in addition, was the availability of online registration and the motivation of Prop 30 for college students.
With all 88 precincts counted, the standings in the Fullerton City Council race is as follows:
Whitaker: 12,211
Fitzgerald: 12,084
Kiger: 10,235
Flory: 10,159
Rick Alvarez was fifth, over 1000 votes back.
I don’t know whether there will be provisional ballots or anything similar in a Council race, but I suspect that this is not the last word on the results.
Totals moved quite a bit from election day to certification during the recall. Percentages, not so much, but any movement at all here is a big deal.
Well, I wouldn’t want to be in Chevron’s political office in Brea this morning. I would expect some pink slips . . .
Oooh, what’s the address? Let’s go serenade them!
You know that President Karzai (Afganistan) was a familoar face ay Hartley plaza brfore the move.
There is a great picture of him at a local pub. He would bring the taliban folks to California when he negociated the pipeline.
The office has since moved to the corner of Birch and State College.
Sharon won by 1004 votes. If all other results stand it will be the Dems’ 54th assembly seat, giving them s 2/3 majority.
Looks like it’s sticking. 1043 after today’s update. No posting as to how many ballots are left to count, so no idea how long it’ll take to land a decision.
Lead is up to 1237. 54925 to 53688. Flory picked up 8 votes . . . so no change. Kiger on top 10864 to 10758.
Absentee ballots in the race should be pretty much even between Flory and Kiger. Provisional ballots (so long as they did have this race on it) should break more towards Flory. Those won’t start being counted until I think a week from Friday.
yea
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Completed Precincts: 1977 of 1977
Vote Count
Percentage
ELIZABETH EMKEN
448,728
53.9%
DIANNE FEINSTEIN
383,309
46.1%
You know that those are the results from OC alone, right? I’m sure that you must, but for the benefit of other readers…..
yes.
When old Geritol Brown sticks his hand for more taxes to save California and the cheeldren next year or sooner (even though we’re now stuck with a 7 year sales tax of 1/4%) please remember Merijoe said that would happen- I’m sure some of you would love that-others, like me, not so much.
Well hopefully everyone can just get along and fix the problems of our state now. Obviously with the D’s presumably getting a 2/3, now we will see if Gov Brown meant what he said when indicating that he would not raise taxes without a vote of the people…will he have the cajones to veto a tax increase bill if one is passed by a Dem controlled Assembly? Time will tell…otherwise, I guess everyone on will be calling him the next lieing politician.
Fortunately, the world still seems to be operating despite the predictions of some, although I really am concerned for Canada and all of the people who will be moving there supposedly!
Well if it’s all the wingnuts who thought that we had become a socialist country that are moving to Canada, wouldn’t it be ironic of them to move to a country THAT ACTUALLY HAS socialized medicine?
Wingnuts for sure…there is no shortage of them on either side of the alphabet.
The BIG difference though, is that the republican’s run the wingnuts for office.
Is Alan Grayson a wingnut or just a looney?
Alan Grayson is outspoken and uses a bit of hyperbole to make his points, that’s different than being a wingnut.
Wingnut’s believe things that aren’t true, like Obama was born in Kenya or that a woman’s body can some how magically prevent conception if she’s raped.
The wingnuts of the left don’t see Obama as a socialist. They see Obama for exactly what he is…a moderate, pragmatic Democrat. In other words, they see reality.
The wingnuts on the right, however, created a fictitious Obama. To them, he’s a Kenyan Socialist Islamic Anti-Colonialist. And that’s who they chose to run against. A phantom. You can’t defeat your opponents if you don’t understand exactly who they are.
If you think there’s some sort of equivalency between those two observations, well, I’d say, well I think I’ll spare you what I’d say.
Of course the wingnuts of the left don’t see him that way…Obama was their guy to get elected- the alternative was even worse than their disagreement with Obama. The wingnuts of the right attacked Obama to get their guy elected. The wingnuts of the left attacked Romney to get their guy elected. If you cannot see that both sides’ wingnuts don’t live on reality based facts, well I think I will spare you what I would say…
Again, wingnuts believe things that aren’t true, both parties have them, but among republicans they are not a fringe element.
Most republicans believe in a fictional Obama, one who was born in Kenya, who’s a marxist, who raised taxes, who went on an apology tour, who sympathizes with the attackers in Libya and who’s coming to take your guns. All fiction and you know there’s much, much more crap just like it being shoveled daily by the likes of Rush and Fox.
That is a REAL PROBLEM for conservatives.
Greg,
Good showing! Impressive.
Was SQS’S term expired? Meaning therr is no appointment situation coming.
I am stunned that Norby was so Caviler. I haveet him in civilian life and don’t share your distain but, am nontheless surprised.
Also a teacher knocks out a teacher. Thats kinda cool.
Hopefully, the J street mafia and the East End aggressors don’t get to Sharron to quickly.
Sharon’s term was expired — no appointment coming up. Didn’t know that about Karzai.
W – Fullerton West Coyote Hills Measure
Completed Precincts: 88 of 88
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 14,126 39.4%
No 21,772 60.6%
CITY OF FULLERTON Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 88 of 88
Vote Count Percentage
BRUCE WHITAKER 12,547 14.0%
JENNIFER FITZGERALD 12,365 13.8%
TRAVIS KIGER 10,503 11.7%
JAN M. FLORY 10,389 11.6%
RICK ALVAREZ 8,954 10.0%
JANE RANDS 7,141 8.0% (No on W)
DON BANKHEAD 6,036 6.7%
BARRY LEVINSON 5,920 6.6% (No on W)
KITTY JARAMILLO 5,904 6.6%
BRIAN BARTHOLOMEW 5,089 5.7%
MATTHEW HAKIM 3,279 3.7%
ROBERTA REID 1,478 1.6%
I am kinda boggled by this. I thought Fullertonians cared what the candidates thought about measure W. Yet, the number of No on W votes and the vote result for the candidates who were no on W isn’t even close (added together). It was probably the most frequent question in every forum/meet&greet/etc. event (for at least I have seen).
Perhaps we’ll get lucky and our elected officials will remember who supports them.
Just like in Costa Mesa Riggy’s worker-bashing charter was resoundingly defeated, but two of his three allies made it onto council, when there was a GREAT slate of three anti-charter candidates? Same thing.
Most damn palookas who pull the lever don’t follow things as closely as we all do here. Shame….
1973 Document presented on FF Measure is a Fraud
*The Costa Mesa Measure V Defeat was great. Righeimer is stamping his feet and saying that he will put “Son of V” on the ballot in 2014. Not when
he sees what Sandy Genis has to say about it during Public Comments…now that she is on the Dias.
Meanwhile, Stephens is only a 100 votes away…..from taking the number 3 spot which would be awesome. Depends on the phone calls he gets..we suppose.
Perhaps they understood that the new Council probably wouldn’t have much to do with it.
Or perhaps they knew that the important race was for third between Flory and Kiger — as some writers tried to tell them was so.
Since I don’t have posting privs here (and don’t know whop does personally) here is a link with some interesting data on AD-72.
http://ocpoliticsblog.com/troy-edgars-ad72-campaign-couldnt-win-his-home-town/#more-6744
Yep, Troy Edgar; six years as a City Council Member and two terms as Mayor; couldn’t win his own town. Better than that (for Travis Allen fans), he couldn’t win his own precinct.
What happened to Dan Avery the new Juice blogger from Mission Viejo? We just returned from the imaginary war zone in Israel and do not hide under a rock.
His Juice prediction and candidate Wendy Buchnum lost to Mission Viejo council member Cathy Schlicht in spite of the Register editorial board and GOP machine elected’s endorsements. He also lost his challenge to the FPPC against Cathy in his complaint for passing out walk pieces without a campaign ID as well as an unsolicted promo of Cathy on the http://www.MissionViejoDispatch.com
blog. Sorry Dan but your life on the Juice has been short lived.
Hey you’re both welcome to post here whenever you want. And that election looked pretty close – between your girl and his girl.