The First Big Poll is out on the Newly Numbered Props

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Hiram Johnson

"Ohhhh, Hiram Johnson -- what have you done?"

We have eleven mostly interesting ballot propositions in store in November.  The first poll on the whole batch, so far as I am aware, just came out — and it gives us an idea of where we’re starting from.  I’m just taking this data directly from Scott Lay’s “The Nooner”; as it’s just a tabulation of poll results I believe that it is fair game.

These are the results of an online polls conducted by the California Business Roundtable and the Pepperdine School of Public Policy.  The Nooner has a link to the crosstabs here.  I’ve color-coded the titles — green=yes, red=no, amber=unsure — to match Vern’s recommendations from an earlier post.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Strongly Yes: 20.2%
Somewhat Yes: 17.3%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 23.6%

TOTAL YES: 56.2%
TOTAL NO: 39.2%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

Strongly Yes: 7.9%
Somewhat Yes: 13.6%
Leaning Yes: 29.5%
Leaning No: 20.0%
Somewhat No: 5.7%
Strongly No: 7.9%

TOTAL YES: 51.0%
TOTAL NO: 33.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 23.2%
Somewhat Yes: 18.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.6%
Leaning No: 10.3%
Somewhat No: 7.0%
Strongly No: 11.6%

TOTAL YES: 60.0%
TOTAL NO: 28.9%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver’s History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 16.5%
Somewhat Yes: 18.7%
Leaning Yes: 24.0%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 6.1%
Strongly No: 11.9%

TOTAL YES: 59.3%
TOTAL NO: 28.7%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 11.8%
Leaning Yes: 14.1%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 7.1%
Strongly No: 28.9%

TOTAL YES: 45.5%
TOTAL NO: 46.7%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 49.3%
Somewhat Yes: 20.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 3.6%
Somewhat No: 1.8%
Strongly No: 1.0%

TOTAL YES: 88.2%
TOTAL NO: 6.4%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 23.1%
Somewhat Yes: 23.4%
Leaning Yes: 25.3%
Leaning No: 7.3%
Somewhat No: 4.5%
Strongly No: 7.2%

TOTAL YES: 71.7%
TOTAL NO: 19.0%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 27.2%
Somewhat Yes: 19.6%
Leaning Yes: 18.1%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 7.6%
Strongly No: 6.2%

TOTAL YES: 64.9%
TOTAL NO: 23.9%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 7.2%
Somewhat Yes: 10.5%
Leaning Yes: 17.3%
Leaning No: 12.1%
Somewhat No: 14.0%
Strongly No: 28.1%

TOTAL YES: 35.0%
TOTAL NO: 54.2%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 18.4%
Somewhat Yes: 14.0%
Leaning Yes: 23.0%
Leaning No: 9.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 12.8%

TOTAL YES: 55.4%
TOTAL NO: 27.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum (to change current lines.)

Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 16.0%
Leaning Yes: 19.9%
Leaning No: 10.6%
Somewhat No: 4.2%
Strongly No: 6.8%

TOTAL YES: 55.7%
TOTAL NO: 21.5%

(Note: I am personally responsible for Vern’s non-endorsement of the very popular — suspiciously popular — Prop 35; I expect to write about that in the next week or two.  Teaser: if it were actually about human trafficking, I’d support it, but it’s mostly not — and most of the non-lawyer proponents don’t get it.)

About Greg Diamond

Prolix worker's rights and government accountability attorney. General Counsel of CATER, the Coalition of Anaheim Taxpayers for Economic Responsibility, a non-partisan group of people sick of local corruption. Deposed as Northern Vice Chair of DPOC in April 2014 when his anti-corruption and pro-consumer work in Anaheim infuriated the Building Trades and Teamsters in spring 2014, who then worked with the lawless and power-mad DPOC Chair to eliminate his internal oversight. Runs for office sometimes, so far to offer a challenge to someone nasty who would otherwise have run unopposed. Someday he might pick a fight intending to win it rather than just to dent someone. You'll know it when you see it. None of his pre-putsch writings ever spoke for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level. A family member works part-time as a campaign treasurer. He doesn't directly profit from that relatively small compensation and it doesn't affect his coverage. (He does not always favor her clients, though she might hesitate to take one that he hated. He does advise some local campaigns informally and generally without compensation. If that changes, he will declare the interest. He also runs a less frequently published blog called "The Brean," for his chosen hometown, where he is now fighting with its wealthiest and most avaricious citizen-donors. This just seems to be his way.