The First Big Poll is out on the Newly Numbered Props


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Hiram Johnson

"Ohhhh, Hiram Johnson -- what have you done?"

We have eleven mostly interesting ballot propositions in store in November.  The first poll on the whole batch, so far as I am aware, just came out — and it gives us an idea of where we’re starting from.  I’m just taking this data directly from Scott Lay’s “The Nooner”; as it’s just a tabulation of poll results I believe that it is fair game.

These are the results of an online polls conducted by the California Business Roundtable and the Pepperdine School of Public Policy.  The Nooner has a link to the crosstabs here.  I’ve color-coded the titles — green=yes, red=no, amber=unsure — to match Vern’s recommendations from an earlier post.

Proposition 30: Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.

Strongly Yes: 20.2%
Somewhat Yes: 17.3%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 23.6%

TOTAL YES: 56.2%
TOTAL NO: 39.2%

Proposition 31: State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.

Strongly Yes: 7.9%
Somewhat Yes: 13.6%
Leaning Yes: 29.5%
Leaning No: 20.0%
Somewhat No: 5.7%
Strongly No: 7.9%

TOTAL YES: 51.0%
TOTAL NO: 33.5%

Proposition 32: Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 23.2%
Somewhat Yes: 18.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.6%
Leaning No: 10.3%
Somewhat No: 7.0%
Strongly No: 11.6%

TOTAL YES: 60.0%
TOTAL NO: 28.9%

Proposition 33: Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver’s History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 16.5%
Somewhat Yes: 18.7%
Leaning Yes: 24.0%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 6.1%
Strongly No: 11.9%

TOTAL YES: 59.3%
TOTAL NO: 28.7%

Proposition 34: Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 11.8%
Leaning Yes: 14.1%
Leaning No: 10.7%
Somewhat No: 7.1%
Strongly No: 28.9%

TOTAL YES: 45.5%
TOTAL NO: 46.7%

Proposition 35: Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 49.3%
Somewhat Yes: 20.2%
Leaning Yes: 18.7%
Leaning No: 3.6%
Somewhat No: 1.8%
Strongly No: 1.0%

TOTAL YES: 88.2%
TOTAL NO: 6.4%

Proposition 36: Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 23.1%
Somewhat Yes: 23.4%
Leaning Yes: 25.3%
Leaning No: 7.3%
Somewhat No: 4.5%
Strongly No: 7.2%

TOTAL YES: 71.7%
TOTAL NO: 19.0%

Proposition 37: Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 27.2%
Somewhat Yes: 19.6%
Leaning Yes: 18.1%
Leaning No: 10.1%
Somewhat No: 7.6%
Strongly No: 6.2%

TOTAL YES: 64.9%
TOTAL NO: 23.9%

Proposition 38: Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 7.2%
Somewhat Yes: 10.5%
Leaning Yes: 17.3%
Leaning No: 12.1%
Somewhat No: 14.0%
Strongly No: 28.1%

TOTAL YES: 35.0%
TOTAL NO: 54.2%

Proposition 39: Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.

Strongly Yes: 18.4%
Somewhat Yes: 14.0%
Leaning Yes: 23.0%
Leaning No: 9.1%
Somewhat No: 5.4%
Strongly No: 12.8%

TOTAL YES: 55.4%
TOTAL NO: 27.2%

Proposition 40: Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum (to change current lines.)

Strongly Yes: 19.7%
Somewhat Yes: 16.0%
Leaning Yes: 19.9%
Leaning No: 10.6%
Somewhat No: 4.2%
Strongly No: 6.8%

TOTAL YES: 55.7%
TOTAL NO: 21.5%

(Note: I am personally responsible for Vern’s non-endorsement of the very popular — suspiciously popular — Prop 35; I expect to write about that in the next week or two.  Teaser: if it were actually about human trafficking, I’d support it, but it’s mostly not — and most of the non-lawyer proponents don’t get it.)


About Greg Diamond

Worker's rights attorney now moving into "good governance" litigation. North Vice Chair of Democratic Party of Orange County and occasional candidate. Proud to be prolix. Unless otherwise specifically stated, his writings never speak for the Democratic Party at the local, county, state, national, or galactic level. He tries to either suppress or openly acknowledge his partisan, issue, ideological, and "good government" biases in most of his writing here. If you have a question about any particular writing, just ask him about it and (unless you are an pseudonymous troll) he will probably answer you at painful length. He lives in Brea but generally doesn't blog about it. A family member works as a campaign treasurer for Wendy Gabriella in AD-73; he doesn't directly profit from that relatively small compensation and it doesn't affect his coverage. He does advise some campaigns informally and without compensation, although in 2014 he may receive some compensation for campaign consulting and fundraising for the campaign of Jorge Lopez for Orange County Assessor.