So far as I can tell, there are five basic ways to keep your valid ballot from being included in the tally at the end of the day on Election night:
- Mail in your absentee ballot late enough that it doesn’t arrive until Tuesday (or maybe Monday as well)
- Bring your absentee ballot with you to drop off at the polls on Election Day
- Request a paper ballot
- Somehow ruin your otherwise legitimate ballot so that it has to be copied over and processed
- Cast what is known as a “provisional ballot,” because you don’t qualify to cast a regular one because, for example, you have moved within the county
These five additional categories are counted pretty much in this order (although I may have switched one or two) in the days after Election Day. The first two categories tend to trend conservative and Republican; the latter three, I’m told, tend to trend the opposite way. And so you see the results, in the days after process in a close race, trend first this way and then trend that way.
Right now, the first four categories of additional ballots are all counted — and Julio Perez is probably off somewhere this weekend singing to himself, “I Want It That Way.”
He may be about to get his way.
Julio is rising.
Perez, as you recall, started Election Day in a virtual tie with Michele Martinez, well back of second-place finisher Joe Moreno. He has slowly been moving upwards. Yesterday, he was just about 1000 ballots short of Moreno. Today, as counting has moved into his more favorable categories, he is about 600 votes back.
Going into the weekend, the Orange County Registrar of Voters estimates that of the 111,165 ballots that were initially left to count after Election Day, 17,125 remain to count. This includes 200 vote-by-mail ballots that were mailed in, 1233 vote-by-mail ballots brought to the polls, 230 paper ballots — and 15,462 provisionals, of which none have been counted.
Two things to keep in mind:
First, this figure is countywide, and AD-69 is only about 1/6.5 of the county. AD-69 has the lowest voting rate of any Assembly District in Orange County — but my guess is that, being the most transient, it may have the highest number of provisional ballots.
Second, provisional ballots are just that: provisional. They count provided that certain conditions are met showing that the voter was actually entitled to cast a ballot in this district. Not all of them — maybe most of them — may end up counting.
Julio’s movement today has to give him some basis for optimism, though. This is where the candidates stand after today:
TOM DALY | 10,453 | 40.1% |
JOSE “JOE” MORENO | 5,701 | 21.8% |
JULIO PEREZ | 5,095 | 19.5% |
MICHELE MARTINEZ | 4,299 | 16.5% |
FRANCISCO “PACO” BARRAGAN | 547 | 2.1% |
606 votes is probably close to the “over/under” bet that I’d make for how much Julio might pick up. A lot of those provisionals will be in Santa Ana, a lot will be accepted, and by far most of them are likely to go to Julio.
I was reminded today that there was another relatively recent election that went into overtime like this: the 2006 election in which Lou Correa beat Republican Lynne Daucher for his current State Senate seat after having trailed her on Election Day. Correa kept chugging along, and on that last day — he passed her and won.
If history repeats itself and takes out one of Correa’s biggest allies in the same fashion, it would be ironic — and much more.
UPDATE: Forgot to add, take a look at what’s happening in AD-72! Joe Dovinh is catching up to Travis Allen, now just 255 votes down in the race for second place — but Long Pham is catching up to Joe Dovinh, just 96 votes behind him! Whom do provisionals favor — Allen, Dovihn, or Pham?
Maybe, but provisional ballots are counted last because they have the least number of valid ballots.
You’re right — it’s going to be close. I’m already preparing my thank-you letter to Chevron for Julio’s win, just in case.
And conversely, maybe I FUCKED UP with my repeated announcements that Joe really was in the race.
You have no moral culpability for that. It was true.
*Provisional ballots need to be crossed check for a variety of reasons: (1) Checking to make sure that a Vote By Mail Ballot was not sent and cast – so as to double dip. (2) That the current address is the same as the Registered Address. (3) That a name change (for example; someone gets married and changes their name) does not conflict with the address or other Registration information. (4) That a Change of Party Registration – the day of voting is validated by the access code and that the old Party Registration is voided. and (5) That the signature matches the original Registration and is verified by three ROV sources.
Finally, all Provisional Ballots and Mail In Ballots dropped off at the polls on Election Day have to be occasioned by the Closing of the Polls on Election Day. Any ballots received after Close of Polls on Election Day are considered “Under Votes” which will not be counted.
*Having been on the receiving end of an “After Election Day Change of Fortune”…we can say…that lots of “shenanigans” have occurred in the past…..but our new Registrar is Voters is pretty darn impressive. Neil Kelly is a great guy….that places accountability in the forefront of Good Government Operations. We are fairly assured that any “Late, Late Ballots” will not be counted in this election. But nothing is completely certain in life, so we will just have to wait out the three weeks to get a verified result.
By the way, it doesn’t take three weeks to count the Provisionals or Mail in’s from the Polls…..that takes about three days.
We had one voter come in to vote, she said her husband voted earlier. Her name could not be found on the 3 lists so she was told she would have to vote provisional. She did not want to fill out the provisional envelope because it asked for too much personal information.
The ROV does send out a few undercover voters to check on precinct operations, I don’t think this lady was one of them.
*Cook – Yep, several Provisionals we took attempted to NOT put their DOB or their Drivers License Number in the spots that were highlighted in RED. The ROV cross checks all that stuff by the way – through name and address. They have unlimited access to DMV records and can spot the bogus voters or double dippers right off.
Do you actually come across “bogus voters” and “double dippers?” I understood that is very, very rare. (Although I’m glad you’re keeping your eyes out for it.)
*There were several….3 or 4….that did not have the Vote By Mail Ballot or would not
surrender it. You just have to be careful and have them fill out the center white
section of the provisional ballot completely.