My initial report on the LIEs — that stands for Late Independent Expenditures — on behaf of Tom Daly and against Julio Perez in the 69th district was suppose to be a one-off. Ha-ha, look at his contributors, you know. I detailed his support from JOBSPAC — mostly brought to you be Chervron, the sensitive and caring oil company that only wants what’s best for you and the world — in which he had received about $280,000 compared to about $176,000 from the rest of the candidates combined — as well as about $19,000 from a landlords group. And I noted that his main opponent Julio Perez had received about $148,000 from organized labor — Julio is the former political director for the Orange County Labor Federation, where he is beloved for his intellect and drive — but was also opposed by almost $14,000 in LIEs against him from doctors and health insurers. (Julio is also a consumer rights advocate. He has all the right enemies!)
The other three AD-69 candidates have neither been the beneficiary of, nor been opposed by, LIEs.
Then, of course, the next day (on Friday), reports came in of another $167,000 from JOBSPAC on behalf of Tom Daly! That is one HUGE pile of LIEs! So I was really looking forward to today. And what do we find?
The LIEs are now mostly being used not to support Daly, but to attack Julio Perez!
Now, Julio did get another $11,000+ from unions, to bring him to about $160,000 total. That shouldn’t be too upsetting, though, when you see what else was filed today:
- Daly got another almost $14,000 from JOBSPAC, bringing him to — let’s round down and call it an even $460,000 from Chevron’s group alone.
- Daly got another almost $16,000 from the landlords group — it’s that damn consumer protection again! — bringing him to over $34,000 from them.
- The doctors and health insurer lobby plopped down over $20,000 more in LIEs against Julio. They’re not even pretending to want Daly. THEY JUST WANT JULIO TO LOSE.
So, as of now, that’s $160,000 pro-Julio and (including $14,000 in previous LIEs against him that I hadn’t reported on) $34,000 in LIEs specifically attacking him.
As for Daly, that’s $494,000 in LIEs supporting him and not a single LIE opposing him.
If you’re keeping score, it might be tempting to say that this is a net of $494,000 to 126,000 — a ratio of about 4:1 in LIEs supporting Daly — but that’s not how a political operative would look at it. Here, I’ll demonstrate the contrasting power of positive negative ads, using assertions that (rightly or wrongly) might be made about Daly as an example.
Positive: Daly is the longterm County Official and Mayor of Anaheim, has bipartisan support, and has helped keep taxes low.
Negative: Daly doles out money to his big political donors and is under the control of the oil companies, landlords, health insurers, and tobacco companies.
Now, do those seem like they’re of equal value to you? Probably not. A negative expenditure is usually considered to be 2-3 times more valuable than a positive one. So, if they’re worth twice as much, then the ratio goes to $494,000 to $92,000, or more than 5 to 1; if they’re worth three times as much, then it’s $494,000 to $58,000, or almost 9 to 1. And, of course, we have many days left to go!
As I’ve said, I expect Tom Daly to finish first in June. (For the sake of my health, he’d better, because otherwise I might die laughing.) I don’t think he’ll win in November, because Julio is about to become a big big story, given these massive expenditures — and that will attract people who can even the score. And Julio doesn’t need to spend nearly as much as Daly does to win.
I’ll be keeping track of this daily Daly dealie daily. I just can’t stop watching it, and I know that Julio — who must by now know that he’s going to make the runoff despite being Corporate Special Interest Enemy #1 — is probably secretly laughing at it as well. After all, he has five months to tell people what happened in the primary — and the dude really knows how to knock on doors!