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Back when we redistricting geeks were attending Commission hearings last year, what would become AD-72 was supposed to be “the Vietnamese district.” Combining virtually all of Little Saigon, in response to extensive lobbying by the Vietnamese community in the Santa Ana hearing, AD-72 was a de facto recognition that the Vietnamese community was finally large enough to dominate its own Assembly district even in the absence of a charismatic boss-man like Van Tran.
It is not turning out that way — not by a longshot. The non-Little Saigon portion of the district also included all but southeastern Huntington Beach up the coast through Seal Beach and Los Alamitos, then north through the other portions of Westminster and Garden Grove — and it looks like Republican candidates from there will have driven out all Vietnamese candidates but the sole serious Democrat. (Albert Ayala, you can write in and make your case if you want to dispute that, but {“Albert Ayala” Assembly} got 247 Google hits while {“Joe Dovinh” Assembly} got over 7300. Just saying.)
The Registrar of Voters website indicates that yesterday Long Pham was issued his nomination papers and Declaration of Candidacy for seat 1 on the Orange County Board of Education (where he currently serves) — seemingly a good indication that he is dropping his bid for Assembly. This follows Los Alamitos Councilmember Troy Edgar’s moving into the race after leaving the high-rolling CD-37 race. Huntington Beach Councilmember Matthew Harper was already in the race. Albert Ayala and Anthony Stuart Pinkston (who does not appear to be well known) have also taken out papers; Ayala has filed. Westminster Councilmember Tyler Diep had also announced plans to run, but dropped out last week before taking out papers.
The upshot of all this is: Joe Dovinh looks like the luckiest politico in the county. Not only is he the only serious Democrat left in the race but, presuming that Pham really does scram, he is the only candidate left of Vietnamese ancestry in any party. In a district where Vietnamese voters have shown themselves willing to vote on ethnic heritage over party — not a bad idea, given the apparent purge of Vietnamese Republicans from the voting menu — this means that Dovinh is even more likely to make the runoff against either Harper or Edgar. Now, though, while they tear one another apart, he can stay above the fray and consolidate his support in the Vietnamese community all year long.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Republicans try to gin up an anti-Dovinh candidate before March 9 rather than give Dovinh such a leg up. (If the Republican race is nasty enough and turns off voters, he could already end up with 40% of the primary vote — or more.) But with Harper and Edgar in a death-lock right now and the prospect of both of them surviving until November diminishing, they may not want to waste and fire on Dovinh.
(Faithful readers know that Dovinh has been a source of controversy here due to actions of his related to Phu Nguyen’s 2010 Assembly campaign; a story exploring just what did go on and why has been initiated and is still brewing. Competitor publications, feel welcome to beat us to it.)
I don’t know what Dovinh was imagining the situation might look like in late February, back when he announced for this race, but I doubt that he thought that his path to the runoff — and to the Vietnamese vote there — would be quite this clear.
Who the heck is Albert Ayala? And do you think the establishment wil get behind Joe or will they leave him twisting n the wind?
Albert Ayala is apparently going to be a candidate for AD-72.
There’s some bad blood around Dovinh regarding both the 2008 and 2010 campaigns, with different interpretations about what happened and what it means. Short answer: I don’t know. See Vern’s earlier post for some context.
I think that Dovinh is in better shape with Pham out than with him in. Whether he gets enough resources to possibly win may depend largely on the nature of the GOP primary race. If it’s sufficiently expensive and destructive — can we already use the term “Romneyesque” for that combination? — so that the Vietnamese community in particular has had enough of both Harper and Edgar, then this becomes a reasonable pick-up opportunity. If it’s a reasonable opportunity, I’d expect to see it attract money.
The fact that knowing this isn’t likely to lead to Harper or Edgar holding their fire allows me to speak freely.
I don’t care so much about Joe supporting McCain, like most Viets did, in 2008. It’s more about what he did during the 2010 election. Barely over a year ago.
I know — but for others, it’s both. I had an interesting couple of talks at the convention that I hope will lead to a story and interview on that (maybe by you?)
The voters in Assembly District 72 are 19% Vietnamese American. This is in contrast to Assembly District 69 that is 53% (majority) Latino Citizen Voting Age Population.
Yes — but historically Vietnamese vote at a much higher rate.
And there are a lot of Koreans and other Asians. To what degree do they go for another Asian candidate? Good question. The Koreans loved Phu.
At a much higher rate than who? What evidence do you point to to support your assertion?
Vietnamese have a much higher rate historically than Latinos in OC, which I’d think would have been clear given that my comment was in reply to your comparison of the two groups in AD-72 and AD-69.
I don’t point to any evidence. Look it up yourself. If you have trouble finding it, let me know.
Albert Ayala is an 89 year old veteran. I have met him or accident at a car show in Garden Grove. He told me that a councilman had talked him into running, beyond that I know nothing more about him than anyone else here. He seems to be in excellant shape
If you google him and put Garden Grove with it there is an interesting story of him being interveiwed at a tea party event a couple of years ago.
*We love Long, Mary and the kids…..too bad no one will give him the cash….so
he could win.
that whole thing about joe dovinh in 0and 10 is just blown up BS. mostly attributable to chris prevatt and his group of internet assassins at the Lib OC.
You think I was listening to Prevatt back in 2010? (When he was suing my blog, and I was intimately involved in the campaign and didn’t need the LOC to tell me what was happening)
I know what Joe and Long were saying on Viet radio about Phu in June-November 2010. All of us who were involved in the campaign know. Shit, 1/3 of us were Viets! Joe consciously helped Mansoor win.
vern
I hope I dont draw your ire on this one; As i recall all that was aid during the primary. the reps recored the shows he was on and kept playing them in a loop. Shit happens to ppole in a campaign dude. They do things they later regret. Try to be a little more tolerant and show a little bit of love with a guy carrying the banner for the Dems.
Well if that’s true, I haven’t ever heard that excuse from Bluedog or Joe himself. He shouldn’ta been calling Phu a Communist during the primary anyway, it’s just a lie. Phu has been as SUBVERSIVE of Communism in Vietnam as anybody, with his micro-loan program for small businesses run by Viet women.
Im not involved politically anymore but I would suggest that the flying monkies in the DPOC get off Joe dovinhs back and support him or leave himmalone atthe least.
The premise of this post is false. Long Pham is trying to run for State Assembly AND Orange County Board of Education, Area 1 at the same time!
I was wondering about that. The guy just loves running for things.
I woulda called him, used to have his number, don’t any more…
He hasn’t turned in sigs in AD-72. He just took out papers on Thursday in the School Board election. I wasn’t able to confirm before leaving town that he wasn’t able to run for both (though that is what I was informef by someone else), but at a minimum it shows that he’s planning to lose the primary, making a vote for him pretty much wasted — unless one hankers for some young-Anglo-on-young-Anglo GOP action in the runoff.
My bet is that he doesn’t turn in papers for AD-72. Maybe he’d be helped out in that decision if one or two people took out papers against him for the BOEd seat. I’d love to hear him making phone calls in the primary: “hi, I’m Long Pham and I’m running for State Assembly and/or Board of Ed.”
Joe has done the same thing. I think it was in ’08, or maybe ’06, that he ran for two different offices. Then the next time around he bragged that he’d won more votes than any other Viet candidate. Everyone said “What?” and it turned out he was adding together the votes he got for both offices.
That’s why people have called both Long and Joe “perennial candidates.”
Ha ha. I defer to your historical knowledge. I continue to think that unless you’re an incumbent Senator running for President, running for two different and incompatible offices is like asking voters to take at least the more ambitious campus unseriously. I continue to see Pham as de facto out of the AD-72 race. What’s his supposed path to victory — Harper and Edgar both losing interest in the race?
The funny thing is that if Pham did somehow knock Dovinh out in the primary, forcing Harper and Edgar to bleed money and suck up volunteers through November, it would probably help a lot of Dems.
Oh well — again, I hope Vietnamese voters are paying attention!
That was also my understanding that the Rep’s had replayed some shows from the primary.
If I had been on the R side I would have done it. Double shot at the same time, destroy the current candidate in 2010 which was Phu, who did a great job and make sure a potential future Candidate Joe was damaged at the same time.
If allan mansoor is a “conservative” republican…..why is he LIVING with his girlfriend….before MARRIAGE???
Long Pham is not out of this contest. In fact, he is working towards winning it. I am a professional photographer and I was recently hired to photograph Mr. Pham specifically for his current Assembly campaign. Long Pham strikes me as a very intelligent, caring, hardworking man. The people in the AD-72 will be lucky to have him as their representative. I look forward to watching Long Pham succeed.
He’s running for Assemblyman by running for Board of Ed? I still say that he is in effect abandoning the race.
Of course, he must be a great candidate indeed to have won the loyalty of his photographer.
I see that we need some people to run for Board of Ed to make things interesting. Any teachers out there reading this?
I was also impressed with his sincerity. He is the type of person who can express himself without the use of condescending sarcasm. Regardless of your opinion, Long Pham is in the race.
OOO, snap! Yeah, I believe he’s still in the race. That’s why I (as omnipotent editor) added “(Or IS he?)” to Greg’s title.
I can do so also, Luis. Sometimes, as when confronted with encomiums by paid contractors of a campaign, however, I simply choose not to.
Why, in your opinion, is he a Republican, by the way?
Vern — let’s see if he’s still in the race once I find an opponent for him in the BOE seat. I think that we’ll find out his real priorities pretty quickly.
I would love to run but OC teachers cannot run for the Board. However there must be qualified individuals out there who would run if they were aware the election is in June, not November. A good Hispanic candidate can win in this heavy Hispanic district.
Whoever does run should check where “Dr.” Pham earned (or purchased?) his PhD.
Someone is now running against Long Pham in “Area 1”: anyone know Anita Mathur?
I see that Ken Williams is the incumbent in Area 3, though I don’t know much about him; his opponent is Mary Galuska. Anyone know her?