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Orange County’s four newly redrawn State Senate districts are not quite as exciting as our new Congressional Districts (with one probable Dem pickup and a Repug cage-match) or our new Assembly Districts (with two POSSIBLE Dem pickups.)
In fact, the one Dem senate district we do have is going to be a challenge to keep in 2014, the registration is so close. And the other three are deep burgundy red for the foreseeable future.
Interesting fact in case you didn’t know: Senate terms being four years, the odd-numbered districts come up for a vote next year (2012, with Presidential elections) and the even-numbered not until 2014 (with gubernatorial elections.) This is why entire families were camped out on the front lawn of the Committee’s office, waiting to see how the districts would be numbered. Well…not really. I’m just trying to make it seem more exciting.
[Again, these map images, from here, were created by Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma, www.meridianhq.com]
The FIGHTING 34th – Lou Correa gets Huntington Beach!
The 34th Senate District, represented these past five years by genial half-Dem Lou Correa, has been drastically altered, losing most of Anaheim and swallowing up much of termed-out Senator Tom Harman’s old Republican district – northern HB, Seal Beach, Fountain Valley, Westminster, Los Alamitos. The district is now essentially tied between Dem & Republican registration – maybe worse, given Republicans’ greater propensity to vote around these parts.
This will create, in December of next year I assume, the interesting spectacle of nominal Democrat Correa representing my John-Birch-society parents, their FOX-News-transfixed friends, and their Dittohead neighbors. Of course it also will mean that Lou will finally be MY senator, so I can give him even more of a rash of shit each time he favors the profits of big corporations over the needs of the people and the environment… and thank him each time he doesn’t! (Last time he saw me, he paused and said, “FRIEND OR FOE?” I answered, “Friend, today, of course” – we were both there trying to save the Fairgrounds after all.)
But what happens here in 2014 when Lou’s termed out? Chismes hold that Assemblymen José Solorio (D-Santa Ana) and Jim Silva (R-Huntington Beach) – both termed-out next year – will, after cooling their heels for two years, face each other in a combat substantially less gripping than that of Godzilla vs. Mothra. Art points out that José and Jim are good friends though. I would think the Republicans would have a better chance with Van Tran, given name recognition and the presence of Little Saigon in the district. But of course Van and José are even better friends. Which I always thought was kind of weird.
I certainly hope José, whose voting record has slid ever further to the right with his deference toward Prison Guards, big Health Insurance, and Agribusiness, doesn’t react to the demographics of this new district by moving even more to the right. I can guarantee him that’s not going to help him with the Mexican-haters and Democrat-haters I grew up amongst. Remember President Truman’s dictum that “given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.” The people of this district, like any district, need a progressive alternative if they’re going to turn out. José should listen more to his teacher wife, Linn Lee, who once told me she is “José’s progressive alter-ego.”
I miss Joe Dunn… *sigh*
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Our three remaining Senate districts are safe Republican seats, so let’s get through them quick…
Huff’s SD 29 up North
The far-right Bob Huff, who has already represented most of this area since 2008, will no doubt hang on until 2016, and have five more years to stack all the local City Councils with his aides and cronies. Hmm. Given this district, the new 39th Congressional, and the new 55th AD, we may as well start considering Walnut, Diamond Bar and Chino Hills honorary OC towns. (Sorry, Greg, roll with it.)
Mimi’s Central/Coastal 37th
State Senator Mimi Walters is going to be moving to Newport to run in this fanatically Republican district next year, that’s what the scuttlebutt is. First elected to the Senate in 2008, Mimi will then have an additional four years to wreak her anti-environmental mischief.
I can think of one quaint old Corona Del Mar couple – the OJ’s own Ron and Ana Winship – who are going to positively swoon once they learn that Mimi will be their senator, because she is *so cute* and *listens to them.* (No thought they give to her extreme positions.)
The open Republican SD 36, down South.
Anyone have any ideas what lucky Republican is going to be anointed here? Most of this territory (which includes Dana Point, SJC & San Clemente) is currently represented by Senator Mark Wyland, who WOULD have had a couple years left, but he lives in Escondido. Hey, wait a second – an even-numbered district, this shouldn’t be up for grabs till 2014, but with Mimi moving up the coast and Mark sweltering inland, who will fill in during the missing two years? A special election, I presume?
As always, please chime in with whatever you know that I don’t!
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Whoops, UPDATE. I knew something was missing. Our little northwestern hamlets of Buena Park and La Palma are now in a Whittier-centered LA Senate District – SD 32 – which is FULLY HALF LATINO, and NEARLY HALF DEMOCRATIC (49% D to 21% R.) Can we count that as one of ours, an OC Democratic district? It hardly seems fair.
Senator Ron Calderon is termed out in the middle of his second term now that his district has an even number, but any Latino Democrat could walk away with it. Right now folks are thinking of former Assemblyman Rudy Bermudez – I remember him – he was good. (I think.)
Thanks for breaking it down for us Vern. Who are the DTSs? Wish they weren’t GOPs but I suspect a larger % of them are. Hmmmmm?
They’re decline to state because they don’t particularly trust either major Party (who can blame them) or they like to feel independent. They’re the people who we need to convince when we have a good candidate. Some of our progressive friends are DTS – Thu-Trang, Sharon, Tyndall, Holcomb…
*Karma does have its rewards…..little Mimi will now be in ourdistrict…. Does this mean that she will have to respond to our e-mails? Does this mean she will learn quickly that dredging is a major issue for Newport Beach. So major…..that is….that unless she shines on that barge……she will be finding sleding tough going for re-election. Or, is she in fact…out on term limits? No matter, Mimi needs to take a long strong look into the future of the New 37th and if she wants a political future will be aiming at the big targets rather than the small ones.
Hm, good point you two! Mimi will have to face Newport voters next year if she wants a second term in the senate … and maybe you all can find another Republican who’s better on the environment – a better fit for you beach crowd. We should look into this. And into publicizing Mimi’s dismal record.
Mimi likes heavy metal. Not the music, but things like lead and mercury. She voted against SB 929 which banned cadmium in children’s jewelry. Apparently It’s much more important for her children to look good than to have a healthy brain.
*By the way…another good article by the Vern man. Lou is going to cruise wherever he wants in his new district. Lou is a Democan or a Republicrat…..what ever suits you best. We like Lou alot and he e-mails us with impunity! Very cool.
I wonder in which district the 11 on 11 soccer will be played. See above.
“OCSatire”…..the little known secret is: All these folks, no matter the District serve on
Committees which serve us all. Therefore; connecting with these folks is an imperative, not an option. Also, the use of firerings on the beach are not allowed anymore! You have to get a license with a time certain………….
Please don’t tell me Mimi will be representing Costa Mesa…
Lou will not be representing Huntington Beach. He will continue representing the district that elected him, which means that HB will not have a State Senator for two years. Other areas (those that overlap w/ Lou’s old districts and portions of a newly renumbered odd district) will have two State Senators.
No, Tom Harman will be HB’s senator until Dec. 2012, then it will be Lou. Or are you sure? That doesn’t make sense.
Okay, since I’m supposed to be the knowledgable one here, I called Senator Harman’s “redistricting person” and he explained it all – I was pretty much right.
Harman continues to represent his current district until Dec. of next year, when he’s termed out.
At that point, it’s up to the Senate Rules Committee to determine whether or not it makes good sense for Lou Correa to take over the new district for his remaining two years, or if there should be a special election. A few factors will be taken into consideration; but both of us considering it over the phone (and also given that the Committee like all committees in Sacramento is dominated by Democrats, plus Lou’s “moderateness”) we agree it’s overwhelmingly probable Lou Correa will take over this new district. From Dec. 2012 to Dec. 2014.
According to this article, Harman’s redistricting guy is wrong.
http://publicceo.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3183:quirk-leaves-some-californians-without-a-state-senator&catid=151:local-governments-publicceo-exclusive&Itemid=20
I saw this article today and it’s consistent with every other article I’ve seen on the subject so I think the weight of authority is against Harman’s guy. That doesn’t mean Harman’s guy is wrong though. Time will tell.
For one thing, this article’s written very confusingly, as though we were already at Dec. 2012. To wit:
“186,000 Californians won’t have a state senator for the next two years. They haven’t been disenfranchised; they are simply victims of the redistricting anomaly known as “deferment.” .. The Coachella Valley, which is currently in the 37th Senate District, has been redrawn into the 28th Senate District. Because of the numbering switch, the Valley will not be able to vote for a Senator until 2014.“
Obviously Dec. 2014 – when their next regularly-elected Senator would be sworn in – is well over three years from now. The writer is lazily skipping over the next 16 months. EG, it’s not in question that Harman keeps representing his current district for the next 16 months, and same with whoever’s in Coachella Valley.
IE, the new districts don’t even take effect until Dec. 2012.
As to what happens in these problematic areas between Dec ’12 and Dec ’14, it seems that will be decided on a case by case basis by the Senate Rules Committee. Maybe they came up with that “solution” recently, before the author of this article was aware of it. But I don’t believe they will let that many thousands of people go without representation in the Senate for two whole years. (Or with double representation.)
proof: ………. term limits = bad deal
How did you get the exact voter registration break down percentages? Thanks
Well, no secret, you see they are on the map images, and those images were made by meridianhq whom I credited near the top of the article.
Found out after the fact that THOSE are Republican activists who are unhappy with the maps … but their numbers are still accurate!
are the population totals on each map on the meridian webpage voter registration totals or general population totals ?
I think for ethnicity it’s voting age totals, for party it’s registration. But I only copied the latter onto my post.