NBC/Wall Street Journal survey incl TEA Party impact on the General election


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TEA party swing voters

NBC News and the Wall Street Journal just released a HART/McINTURFF 23 page survey of 1,000 individuals ranging in age from 18 to 75 plus. The interviews were conducted between Sept 22-26th. Of the 1,000 participants 200 were reached by cell phone. I was pleased to see that breakout in that some may argue that younger voters only have a cell phone and may therefore be overlooked in traditional polling.

While I surely have no intention to post every question there are a few worth discussion by our readers. To see the entire survey results simply go to the link at the end of this post.

Question #14. “Let me read you a number of potential things that might happen in the upcoming election. For each one, please tell me if this outcome would be acceptable or unacceptable to you.

The influence of special interests is reduced.

59% responded strongly acceptable, 11% not so strongly acceptable, 6% not so strongly unacceptable with only 8% strongly unacceptable.

New people with few ties to the political process are elected.

41% strongly acceptable to only 9% who felt strongly unacceptable

The health care reform plan that was passed earlier this year is repealed.

40% strongly acceptable while at the other end of the spectrum 31% find this strongly unacceptable.

The TEA Party influences the Republican Party to become more conservative on fiscal issues.

Strongly acceptable 33% with 21% strongly unacceptable.

Most congressional representatives are defeated.

Strongly acceptable 26%, not so strongly acceptable 22% to 12% strongly unacceptable with 19% having no opinion.

In the summary of the outcomes, in descending order, the top outcome relates to “the influence of special interests is reduced.” 70% total acceptable with only 14% reported as totally unacceptable.

A message to incumbents is found in the second highest ranking that is very close where the question of “new people with fewer ties to the political process are elected” is reported at 69% total acceptable to only 16% not acceptable.

Third. “The Tea Party influences the Republican Party to become more conservative on fiscal issues.

50% total acceptable to 30% not acceptable with 20% DTS

Fourth. “Most congressional representatives are defeated.”

Total acceptable 48% to 28% not acceptable.

Fifth. “The Republican take over the majority in Congress.”

52% acceptable 39% not acceptable

Sixth. “The health care reform plan that was passed earlier this year is repealed.”

51% acceptable, 39% not acceptable

Jumping ahead to Questions 20 & 21 asked of self described TEA Party supporters.

Would you describe your support for the Tea Party more of a protest against the performance of the Obama administration, a protest against the performance of Democrats in Congress, a protest against Republicans in Congress, a protest against business as usual in Washington, or more of a positive for the Tea Party movement?

Leading the results at 42% is a protest against business as usual in Washington.

Second at 20% was a protest against the performance of the Obama Administration.

Third. Protest against the performance of Democrats in Congress at 12%.

Fifth. Protest against the performance of Republicans in Congress at 5%.

Gilbert comment. While not in double digits TEA Party supporters are not giving the GOP a pass for their performance.

Question 21 related to positions and issues that the Tea Party Movement supports.

Please tell me which one or two of these are the main reason you support the Tea Party Movement.

Committed to cutting federal government spending and the national debt.  29%

Committed to reducing the size of government, including abolishing  some federal agencies.  25%

Supports personal liberty of the individual, within the rule of law.  20%

Supports repealing the health care reform law.  19%

Opposes the economic stimulus bill and government bailouts.  13%

Folks. What we now have is a focus group report that every candidate, be it incumbent or challenger, should read.

I encourage each of you to read the 23 page report acknowledging that any pollster controls who he elects to contact. It might be of interest to see a similar survey conducted by FOX or John Zogby for balance.

Following is one link to the report.

http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=+HART%2FMcINTURFF+study+%23101061&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=+HART%2FMcINTURFF+study+%23101061&gs_rfai=&pbx=1&fp=c1e6202c6a4c937f


About Larry Gilbert